Seems like you're equating superstar developers with years of experience and that hasn't been my observation. PyTorch was created by an undergrad. I've worked with senior devs that have let engineering pass them by and are now the equivalent of non-programming programmers: https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-nonprogramming-programmer/

I agree that the pool of superstar devs is tiny.

As a data point, in big tech the Sr staff (L7 at G/FB) and higher is no more then 2% if ICs.

For anyone confused, “senior staff” is L7 and rare but “senior” is L5 and usually a majority of SWEs.

Correct. Sr/5 is the expected terminal level for most. Both FB and G expect steady progress to that level or you get fired (if you really can't make it).

L4 is terminal at Google now afaik, but same concept.

Did that change?

I didnt say years of experience is equal to status

But it sure as hell takes years of experience to achieve certain status

It takes building and shipping an outstanding product to achieve certain status, if we’re talking about “superstar“ status. This has almost nothing to do with years of experience. I’d even say most superstar devs achieved it pretty early in their career.

It absolutely does take years to achieve that. Most people that think they are superstar are really just mediocre mis with an ego.

I doubt there are many superstars under the age of 28 minimum