I feel this acutely too. The trajectory we've been on feels a lot more Bladerunner than it does Star Trek[0] and it's honestly somewhat disappointing. All that promise, and possibly all that hubris, come to naught.
We have to acknowledge the impact the Cold War had and, perhaps, with it winding down as the 80s wore on the impetus was no longer there. Nobody wanted to spend the money on these grand developments and great explorations any more.
Yes, we've sent probes to many parts of the solar system but, whilst much better than not going at all, in no way is this comparable to going ourselves (it's much easier and safer, for one thing).
It is weird though, because the drive towards flight and, ultimately, space exploration predates the Cold War, kicking off big time back in the Victorian era, so it's unclear why the end of the Cold War also marked the end of that era of advancement. I don't think it had to be inevitable. Our dreams didn't have to become smaller; nobody forced us to become less.
(Of course I realise Mars is a much tougher proposition than the moon, but we haven't even really bothered to try, which is what frustrates me.)
[0] Don't worry: I realise Star Trek is ridiculous.
https://www.startrek.com/news/ds9s-take-on-homelessness-is-a...
Tiocfaidh ár lá indeed.
Amusing that a date picked in 1990 could end up accurate when you consider shifting religious demographics in Northern Ireland and the potential impact of Britain leaving the EU.
Maybe it isn't technological, but psychological. Our minds haven't evolved all that much. We need to be kinder, gentler, more respectful of other people and other species, and learn to live in harmony with the environment, rather than always being at war with nature.
For example introducing more rigorous testing to medical devices, or learning to use addictive media in a reasonable way. Or maybe learning to live with less, rather than demand for more.
I think that's pretty neat.
“Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun. Orbiting this at a distance of roughly ninety-two million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue green planet whose ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.”
― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
Quadcopter/drone tech seems like it's bringing us closer to Blade Runner's flying cars of 2019, although noise and safety are major issues.
r/unexpectedmontypython
I was a "NASA" kid, was 5 when man landed on the moon, blew off a uni exam to watch the first shuttle landing, still amazed when a Falcon 9 lands on a ship, can hear "1201 alarm, kicking up some dust" and see the grey video and the shadow of the LEM...
But Chuck Yeager making that first "boom" is still the boundary between yesterday and today.
Their operating system is designed specifically to resist general utilization, and intended primarily as a vehicle for conspicuous consumption.
To be frank; short of a revolution in human ethics/morality/spirituality, the wonder that is the modern smartphone will not become half of what it could be.
And goddamn. Rest in peace, Chuck. They won't even hear ya comin'.
I'm reading The Trouble with Physics (2007) now, and it's about the same themes (lack of progress in physics since ~1980s [besides higgs boson i guess]).
Overall though, seems that human advances, for the sake of humanity, have fallen by the wayside for...stuff like the red-bull sponsored jump
I don't disagree that too much of our collective intelligence is spent trying to sell advertisements, it's a shame.
I won't put a persuasive essay here, but just say, I am optimistic about it.
EDIT: Or the Israeli ex-gov guy saying "It was definitely aliens".
https://m.jpost.com/omg/former-israeli-space-security-chief-...
Ah, that explains it.
- Peter Thiel
The future is that vastly many more people fly in a plane every year and it's much, much cheaper than it was in 1970.
https://twitter.com/benedictevans/status/1332292031427833858
From the stars to the cell, the future isn't lost
We definitely did a lot in space since the one small step. The whole concept of orbital stations went from idea to everyday reality. Commercialization of space - like, successes of Ariane-4 and then Dennis Tito and others is also a significant step. We're expecting more any year now.
The final design of the space shuttle was not able to support this kind of use. Very expensive and refurbishment demanded a lot of human work. So it sapped a lot of money and workforce from the space program.
It very well could have been. The trouble was that the initial cost projections called for 50+ flights per year, but demand only warranted 3.5 flights per year on average.
It's a fate that every heavy orbital transport system shared so far - just look at the Falcon Heavy. How many launches did it have? Two (technically three, if you include the maiden flight)? That's 1 flight per year with another two classified DoD payloads scheduled for next year.
There's simply no demand for heavy lift vehicles outside of building space stations and DoD contracts. In the end STS was too big and expensive for just ferrying people into space and too complex for just getting payloads into LEO.
It could've made up for that by always doing both, but there simply wasn't a destination in LEO for people to go to and not enough 27.5t LEO payloads (~10t GTO).
For instance in 1985 there were only 25 orbital launches in total, 9(!!!) of which Space Shuttle launches and 6 other US rocket launches. Nowhere near the envisioned weekly or even just fortnightly launch cadence required to get the cost down.
AFAIK the final design of the heat shield did not allow for much shorter turnaround time than several weeks. It was necessary to inspect around 30 thousand tiles by "eye and hand" and those tiles were unique, so replacements had to be precision made. This is a system that just eats time of qualified people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_thermal_protecti...
They also use tiles and they will need to inspect them after each flight, too. Today we have new techniques available. I think the shuttle could be inspected much quicker now than 10-20 years ago - AI can help a lot with automated checks and 3D-printing as well as simplified tile layout (like the Soviets used for Buran) would also shorten inspection time and reduce cost.
I honestly see the main risk with Starship in the heat shield. Musk loves to take unnecessary shortcuts like no flame deflector tunnel on the launch pad which lead to completely avoidable problems (like the SN8 static fire that destroyed an engine due to debris from the launch pad).
The Shuttle had foam damaging tiles and Starship may have debris from the launch or landing damage heat tiles. They will have to be very careful with that and not be arrogant about it.
51 years later ... still waiting for the future to arrive.