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Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by apohn on Monday August 31, 2020 @10:26AM (#24331768)
"Like Big Data, I think we'll see a few companies execute well and actually get some value, while most will just jump to the next shiny thing in a year or two."

Here's another aspect - in many places nobody listens to the actual people doing the work. In my last job I was hired to lead a Data Science team and to help the company get value of Stats/ML/AI/DL/Buzzword. And I (and my team) were promptly overridden on every decision of what projects an expectations were realistic and what were not. I left, as did everybody else that reported to me, and we were replaced by people who would make really good BS slides that showed what upper management wanted to see. A year after that the whole initiative was cancelled.

Back in 2000 I was in a similar position with a small company jumping on the internet as their next business model. Lots of nonsense and one horrible web based business later, the company failed.

It's the same story over and over again. Some winners, lot of losers, many by self-inflicted wounds.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mrtksn on Monday August 31, 2020 @11:57AM (#24332711)
If you think about it, that's the natural outcome. Why? Because people in corporations don't have the incentive to benefit the business but to progress their careers and that's done through meeting the goals for their position and make their upper ups progress with their careers too.

So essentially, you have a system where people spend other people's resources for living and their success is judged by making the chain link above happy. In especially large companies it's easy to have a disconnect from the product because people in the top specialise in topics that have nothing to do with the product. If the people at the top want to have this shiny new thing that the press and everyone else is saying that it's the next big thing, you better give them the new shiny thing if you want to have a smooth career. In publicly traded companies, this is even more prevalent because people who buy and sell the stocks would be even more disconnected from the product and tied to the buzzwords.

The more technical minded people who have the hunch on tech miss the point of the organisation that they are in and get very frustrated. It's probably the reason why startups can be much more fulfilling for deeply technical people.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by apohn on Monday August 31, 2020 @12:42PM (#24333190)
>If you think about it, that's the natural outcome. Why? Because people in corporations don't have the incentive to benefit the business but to progress their careers and that's done through meeting the goals for their position and make their upper ups progress with their careers too.

This is one of the reasons I roll my eyes whenever I read something like "McKinsey says 75% of Big Data/AI/Buzzword projects do not deliver any value." What's the baseline for failing and/or delivering zero value because those projects were destined to fail?

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by bonoboTP on Monday August 31, 2020 @01:01PM (#24333422)
> because of silly management decisions?

The whole point is, from their point of view those decisions are rational. It's much more lucrative from their (managers') personal point of view to develop a smokes-and-mirrors looks-good-on-ppt AI project. To be safe from risk, don't give the AI people too much responsibility, let them "do stuff", who cares, the point is we can now say we are an AI-driven company on the brochures, and we have something to report up to upper management. When they ask "are we also doing this deep learning thing? It's important nowadays!" we say "Of course, we have a team working on it, here's a PPT!". An actual AI project would have much bigger risks and uncertainty. I as a manager may be blamed for messing up real company processes if we actually rely on the AI. If it's just there but doesn't actually do anything, it's a net win for me.

Note how this is not how things run when there are real goals that can be immediately improved through ML/AI and it shows up immediately on the bottom line, like ad and recommendation optimizations in Youtube or Netflix or core product value like at Tesla etc.

The bullshit powerpoint AI with frustrated and confused engineers happens in companies where the connection is less direct and everyone only has a nebulous idea of what they would even want out of the AI system (extract valuable business knowledge!).

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by huffmsa on Monday August 31, 2020 @02:54PM (#24334736)
I think the problem a lot of places has been wanting "appealing" ML/AI solutions. The kind you write papers about and put on Powerpoints.

The useful AI/ML isn't glamorous, it's quite boring and ugly. Things like spam detection, image labeling, event parsing, text classification.

It's hard to get a big, shiny model into direct user facing systems.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by bonoboTP on Monday August 31, 2020 @03:05PM (#24334849)
What would you categorize as shiny in this case? "spam detection, image labeling, event parsing, text classification" can be implemented in lots of ways, simple and shiny as well.

Either way I don't think it matters too much because people can't really tell simple from shiny as long as the buzzword bullet points are there.

The point is rather that the job of the data science team is to deliver prestige to the manager, not to deliver data science solutions to actual practical problems. It's enough if they work on toy data and show "promising results" and can have percentages, impressive serious charts and numbers on the powerpoint slides.

I've heard from many data scientists in such situations that they don't get any input on what they should actually do, so they make up their own questions and own tasks to model, which often has nothing to do with actual business value, but they toy around with their models, produce accuracy percentages and that's enough.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mgleason_3 on Monday August 31, 2020 @03:17PM (#24334971)
OK, so, we're scientists...and we're in the middle of a pandemic...amplifying/arguing over a graph showing a steep decline in job listing...that doesn't control for the pandemic...or even include a line for "overall job loss"...

https://www.burning-glass.com/u-s-job-postings-increase-four...

Looks like all job postings "collapsed during the pandemic"

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by stjohnswarts on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:58PM (#24335866)
yeah looks like at the least you might have lines for "overall CS based jobs" and "overall tech industry" and see the same sort of fall off appears. While not all that scientific either logically if you see similaries you can cast some more doubt/support on the hypothesis that ML is special and failing. How is it doing relative to other "hyped" or even just plain technical hiring/firing trends.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by beambot on Monday August 31, 2020 @01:38PM (#24333891)
Followed immediately by the solution: Hire McKinsey analysts to help you deliver insights -- which may or may not get implemented or deliver the results, but it won't matter because everyone has moved on to the next "project".
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by xmprt on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:48PM (#24335789)
Why do you roll your eyes? Isn't it a useful metric to know that most of the projects that are hiring these buzzword technologies are destined to fail (whether that's because the problem space wasn't fit for ML or whether management went on a hiring spree to pump their resume)?
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by apohn on Monday August 31, 2020 @07:24PM (#24336912)
I dislike these types headlines because I've interacted with a lot of people who see this as evidence that ML/AI is BS and destined to fail. The reality is that a project with unrealistic expectations is going to fail regardless of it being an AI project or somebody baking a loaf of bread at home.

It's important to understand why stuff fails. That's the only way to stop things from failing in the future and make sure people are on the right path to not failing. If a large number project failures are management failures, it's useful to know that. Otherwise you try to fix everything except the management structure.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by eaton on Monday August 31, 2020 @07:55PM (#24337122)
Statistically, though, that's what the people in this thread are saying — that the majority of the projects in ML/AI are destined to fail because they're BS with unrealistic goals.

"Personalization" is in a similar place for digital publishing; everyone wants it, products and services carry big price tags, and few organizations want to invest in foundational work or simple, iterative improvements. So they swing for the stars with unrealistic goals like "micro-targeted messaging perfectly tailored to every visitor, no matter where they are in the customer journey" and the results are predictable…

I take the increasingly grim accounts of project failure rates from analyst firms as a good sign — they can be used to sober up executives with unrealistic dreams.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by tuyiown on Tuesday September 01, 2020 @06:27AM (#24340210)
Funny thing is, McKinsey consultants exactly knows why it fails, but won't say it because the responsibility falls on the execs that choose them for their reports or consulting. A paying customer should not have any reason to fear to regret choosing you as a consultant.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by jkinudsjknds on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:07PM (#24335412)
McKinsey DS here. I don't think I've ever heard such a claim about data science whatever, although I would probably believe it. I do hear such claims a lot in the context of big transformations.

These claims are usually high level and based on surveys or whatever. Failing usually means leadership gave up. As far as high level awareness of project success rates, it's probably accurate enough to justify the point: companies are generally bad at doing X. This tends to be true for many different kinds of X, because business is hard.

I generally don't agree that people make up destined to fail projects for selfish gains. I'm sure it happens, but that seems bottom of the barrel in terms of problems to fix. With DS specifically, leaders just don't know what to do. So they hire data scientists, and the data scientists don't know anything about the business, so they make some dashboards or whatever and nobody uses them. It's really not easy. Business is hard.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by ideals on Monday August 31, 2020 @01:23PM (#24333689)
Others have also pointed out that too many ML engineers and researchers rush into problems and end up with useless results also hinges on this. These people have to deliver something because their job depends on it. Everything is move fast even when that doesn't make sense.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by coredog64 on Monday August 31, 2020 @06:47PM (#24336642)
At my last employer, you had a hard time moving up the career ladder unless you could point to concrete results with dollar signs attached. And the OOM on those dollars started at 7 figures.

Similarly, you couldn’t just fake these types of savings because they needed to be showing up in budget requests. If I saved $10M in hardware costs, then that line item in the budget better reflect it.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by wwweston on Monday August 31, 2020 @05:31PM (#24336170)
> Because people in corporations don't have the incentive to benefit the business but to progress their careers

AKA the principal-agent problem:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_proble...

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by natmaka on Tuesday September 01, 2020 @07:33AM (#24340656)
Putt's Law and Pournelle's iron law of bureaucracy also have pertinent (disastrous) effects. In the public sector they are even worse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putt%27s_Law_and_the_Successfu...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Pournelle#Pournelle's_ir...

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by data4lyfe on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:49PM (#24335799)
This is why almost all data scientists and ML engineers that succeed in many corporate structures are essentially "yes men".

Source: https://www.interviewquery.com/blog-do-they-want-a-data-scie...

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by ForHackernews on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:09PM (#24335427)
> It's probably the reason why startups can be much more fulfilling for deeply technical people

I think the opposite is just as often true: Startups often don't have any real customers, so it's all about buzzwords and whatever razzle-dazzle they can put in a pitch deck to raise the next round.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mistasteve on Monday September 07, 2020 @09:45PM (#24404509)
In my experience startups have the delusion and stupidity but they burn thru the 7 stages of death faster so there's the novelty of new beginnings!
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by hehebbssjj on Monday August 31, 2020 @08:31PM (#24337292)
In my experience a startup of a certain size is founders and sales doing razzle-dazzle, "deeply technical people" jerking off to the latest fad, and no customers.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by phre4k on Monday August 31, 2020 @07:12PM (#24336815)
Reminds me of the AAA gaming industry. Jim Sterling made some great and insightful videos about it.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by CyberDildonics on Monday August 31, 2020 @09:40PM (#24337688)
Anyone can sell the future.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by macklemoreshair on Tuesday September 01, 2020 @01:38AM (#24338893)
This exactly describes my experience with self driving cars
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by KKKKkkkk1 on Tuesday September 01, 2020 @02:22AM (#24339055)
Can you share more details?
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by austinl on Monday August 31, 2020 @12:31PM (#24333057)
I've heard this happen in a lot of places — companies want to be "data-driven", but then leadership simply ignores the data. I think being data-driven is something that is built into company culture, or otherwise it's too easy to just ignore the results and ship.

The place I currently work is data-driven (perhaps to a fault). Every change is wrapped behind an experiment and analyzed. Engineers play a major role in this process (responsible for analysis of simple experiments), whereas the data org owns more thorough, long-term analysis. This means there are a significant number of people invested in making numbers go up. It also means we're very good at finding local maxima, but struggle greatly shipping larger changes that land somewhere else on the graph.

Some of the best advice I've heard related to this is for leadership to be honest about the "why". Sometimes we just want to ship a redesign to eventually find a new maximum, even through we know it will hurt metrics for a while.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mumblemumble on Monday August 31, 2020 @12:42PM (#24333187)
Imagine what it must be like for the senior leadership of an established company to actually become data-driven. All of a sudden the leadership is going to consent to having all of their strategic and tactical decision-making be questioned by a bunch of relatively new hires from way down the org chart, whose entire basis for questioning all that expertise and business acumen is that they know how to fiddle around with numbers in some program called R? And all the while, they're constantly whining that this same data is junk and unreliable and we need to upend a whole bunch of IT systems just so they can rock the boat even harder? Pffft.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by lallysingh on Monday August 31, 2020 @01:08PM (#24333526)
I expect data driven leaders to be good at analyzing data. The rest are bullshitters.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by wokwokwok on Monday August 31, 2020 @08:19PM (#24337229)
That just reads as leaders who are high on cognitive bias.

...probably true to some extent, but not all leaders are self important ass hats who refuse to acknowledge they are simply “making decisions” not “making good decisions”. Most leaders are doing the best they can (often even very well) with the insights available to them.

I don’t think most data teams are really at fault; they’re just doing what they’re told.

The problem imo lies with the analysts who fail to do anything useful with the data they’re given, and demand constant changes from the data team because they want to deliver silver bullet results to the leadership level.

That’s the problem layer; people who want to be important but have nothing to offer, whipping their data team to produce rubbish and then blaming them for either a) not producing anything fast enough or b) not making the numbers big enough.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by zonethundery on Wednesday September 02, 2020 @01:52PM (#24355807)
I've seen this happen in private industry and government, and is most of the reason analytics feels like a dead-end career if it is not the primary product of the firm.

"Data science"/analytics groups are a cost center telling management things they do not want to hear, and disrupting management narrative (with receipts). There's no point to it; either you deliver "moneyball"-like opportunities that are ignored, or torture the data to fit existing narratives. In both cases, you eventually get stabbed by an experienced bureaucratic knife fighter.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by stjohnswarts on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:59PM (#24335884)
You give them tons of data and then all you hear is "I'm gonna have to go with mah gut on this one"
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mistasteve on Monday September 07, 2020 @09:47PM (#24404516)
Goodhart's law is a thing...
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by proverbialbunny on Monday August 31, 2020 @05:22PM (#24336096)
Ditto. The same thing happened to me a few companies back. I lead a data science team of two solving difficult problems that would determine the company's success. However, management was the type to be uncomfortable with ignorance so they had to pretend to know data science and demand tasks be solved a certain way, which for anyone who has any familiar experience has already guessed it: what they were pushing made no sense.

So, I switched from predictive analytics and put on my prescriptive analytics hat. Over the time I was there I created several presentations containing multiple paths forward letting management feel like they were deciding the path forward.

This continued until I was fired. The board didn't like that I wasn't using a neural nets to solve the companies problems. Startups often do not have enough labeled data, so DNNs were not considered. Oddly, I didn't get a warning or a request about this before being let go. I suspect management got tired of me managing upward. In response my coworker quit right then and there and took me out to lunch. ^_^

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by barkingcat on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:21PM (#24335529)
This can be applied as "nobody listens to the people who actually do the work" as in company hires ML/AI experts to analyze purchase records and service records, and spits back out trends that the service front line workers (tier 1) already knew dead solid.

Then the company doesn't listen to either group of people (neither tier 1 sales/support people, nor the ML people) and then fires / shuts down the entire division because "upper management didn't find value"

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by alexslobodnik on Monday August 31, 2020 @05:12PM (#24336024)
Or it could be that a lot of data is wrong. It may be "technically" correct, ie the table in a database produces X. It is no surprise that executives would ignore what the "data" says because they don't trust it.

A lot of time they are right to ignore it. I've seen tables say X, but there was some flaw up the capture stack. Very few data analyst have the broad based knowledge and dedication needed to trace the data stack to establish the needed trust with the executive team.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by ghaff on Monday August 31, 2020 @07:17PM (#24336850)
Probably the biggest part of a lot of projects is cleaning up and normalizing the data (just like it was with data warehousing last century). A lot of high power data scientists don't want to hear that--especially if they're research-y.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by disgruntledphd2 on Tuesday September 01, 2020 @07:14AM (#24340553)
If you don't at least tolerate data cleaning, you should find a different job than data scientist.

I would have expected the researchy people to be better at it, as often you'll need to collect and analyse your own data during grad programs, and thus have some experience.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mistasteve on Monday September 07, 2020 @09:48PM (#24404523)
I kind of like data cleaning, I'm a weirdo like that
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by stjohnswarts on Monday August 31, 2020 @05:02PM (#24335919)
Some of the better historic manufacturers that "made it" were known to have good managers go and visit the filthy masses on the factory floor and get a feel for what's going on. It was very valuable for me when I used to help with manufacturing testing. I always spent some time with the techs and the people on the floor assembling stuff. A lot of it was useless but a lot of it was worthwhile and we learned to trust each other better instead of the "eggheads upstairs" and the "jarheads downstairs" that seemed to be most prevalent there.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mindentropy on Tuesday September 01, 2020 @03:38PM (#24346045)
I think what you have done is similar to what is depicted in "The Goal" by Eliyahu M. Goldratt. The graphic novel depicts it in a more succinct manner.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by closeparen on Monday August 31, 2020 @04:28PM (#24335586)
Contempt for this kind of knowledge is almost a religion in Silicon Valley.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by mattferderer on Monday August 31, 2020 @10:20PM (#24337927)
I did data a decade ago at a school district. A more experienced mentor at another school district let me in on a secret that is true across all industries no matter the size or type.

If you give executives data and they don't like the results, they will ask you to tweak parameters until the data represents what they want.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by poorman on Monday August 31, 2020 @02:01PM (#24334141)
I think if a business is set up to scale by volume they can see gains from it. For example, say a business is already doing well at 100k conversions a day. They manage to apply "big data/ML" to optimize those conversions and gain a 3% lift, they are now making over a 1,095,000 extra conversions a year they would not have otherwise made.
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by chrisandchris on Monday August 31, 2020 @03:03PM (#24334828)
So they need to make $1 profit for each of those conversions just to make it worth if they hire 1 ML scientist for 95k/year. Or $10 if they hire 10 for 950k/year in total. And so on...

And there‘s the point where - IMHO - 3% gain may not be profitable enough.

Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by tomrod on Monday August 31, 2020 @03:35PM (#24335161)
Extra conversions/year, so 1 DS at 95k means 1mm net profit
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by itronitron on Monday August 31, 2020 @02:22PM (#24334371)
I think the only places where it yields consistent results is organizations that have at least 80% of their staff doing the ML/DS work and less than 20% managing the people doing the work (up and down in the organization.)
Re:Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six... by wsgreen on Friday September 11, 2020 @12:57PM (#24444733)
Currently experiencing the exact same thing. Roughly 15 machine learning engineers through hiring and acquisitions and all of them have no product or management power. Everyone with any management or product power has zero ML/Data Science experience. I spend half my day explaining to managers what ML is.