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Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by LanceH on Friday August 21, 2020 @10:21AM (#24235087)
AI can also fly past black/red out thresholds. Even in current aircraft that would be add capability. But having that in the design phase may open up all sorts of possibilities.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by woeirua on Friday August 21, 2020 @11:59AM (#24235954)
Probably not as much as you would think. Modern airframes are still not capable of sustaining as much acceleration as missiles. You just can't outmaneuver today's missiles.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by mullingitover on Friday August 21, 2020 @02:43PM (#24237678)
> Modern airframes are still not capable of sustaining as much acceleration as missiles.

Are those limits what they are because there wasn't any point in designing stronger airframes if the pilot was just going to black out under higher G forces?

If you take the vulnerable human body out of the equation I wonder if airframes strong enough to withstand that acceleration would actually be feasible.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by jacquesm on Friday August 21, 2020 @04:50PM (#24238752)
It's mostly a matter of mass. You would need crazy amounts of power to make a large aircraft make the same kind of turns that a small missile can do effortlessly, besides that it is much easier to make a small structure very strong. Try killing a flea if you want more proof of that.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by imtringued on Saturday August 22, 2020 @03:23PM (#24246569)
I don't know why this keeps getting brought up. Humans may be a factor in the maneuverability of an aircraft but the days of dog fighting are over. There are effective countermeasures against guided missiles that don't involve high G forces.

Today it's all about spotting the enemy first and then the usual logistics of deploying as many weapons on the enemy as possible. An aircraft that can carry 4 missiles and runs out should head back so that it can sortie tomorrow again with a fresh load of missiles instead of starting a desperate dogfight. An expensive plane that can only carry 2 missiles but is guaranteed to return home is more valuable in a war than a cheap one that carries more missiles but gets shot down frequently.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by berkut on Friday August 21, 2020 @03:32PM (#24238117)
It's sometimes possible to overstress airframes (even ones that use FBW, and should in theory always operate within limits) in high-G maneuvers, as they have stress limits (g limits), which depend on the airframe as well as load-out for fighters.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by stouset on Friday August 21, 2020 @06:32PM (#24239567)
A plane is, conceptually, just a platform from which to launch ordnance closer and at a higher starting potential energy than you would be able to from the ground.

Given that a plane, then, needs to be capable of carrying multiple pieces of ordnance (otherwise, it's pretty much just a guided missile), it's pretty much fundamentally going to have a higher mass than whatever missile you're launching at it.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by andrewflnr on Friday August 21, 2020 @09:18PM (#24240739)
That sounds like it means dogfighting doesn't matter at all. You just need an autonomous missile platform with good enough ECM to avoid getting splattered by the enemy missile platform.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by magicsmoke on Friday August 21, 2020 @11:41PM (#24241327)
That's the basis behind F35's design and why it can't outmaneuver a F16 in a visual range dogfight but is never expected to get into one.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by xnyan on Saturday August 22, 2020 @01:00PM (#24245464)
>That sounds like it means dogfighting doesn't matter at all

There has not been an aerial dogfight in this millennia. The last ones that would really count happened over Bosnia in the 90s. I think a Rafale took down a 1960s era MIG-23 in the Libyan Civil war, but modern fighters are either too hard to hit or too expensive to risk.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by dragonwriter on Friday August 21, 2020 @11:50PM (#24241383)
> If you take the vulnerable human body out of the equation I wonder if airframes strong enough to withstand that acceleration would actually be feasible.

Take the human body out, and the airframe is a (possibly, bus) missile.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by sandos on Friday August 21, 2020 @06:06PM (#24239361)
Just remove the aircrafts altogether, use only a cloud of AI-enabled missiles....
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by dodobirdlord on Friday August 21, 2020 @06:12PM (#24239416)
There's a saying that drone warfare enthusiasts keep reinventing the guided missile. Proponents point out that drones are cheap and disposable compared to the value of the targets they attack. But a drone can travel further, faster, and with more armor and ordinance if it doesn't carry fuel to return or equipment to land.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by woeirua on Friday August 21, 2020 @06:13PM (#24239424)
The problem with missiles is that they have a limited amount of propellant. Most missiles will spend the majority of their flight time gliding toward their target after the initial boost phase. Fighters can spend hours in the sky, and fly thousands of miles away from their home base. Missiles are limited to a range of several hundred miles and a few minutes max, even with advanced loitering technologies.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by salawat on Saturday August 22, 2020 @04:06PM (#24246874)
If it's loitering, or intended to come back, it isn't functionally a missile.

And why in the hell would you fire a missile without a target that would require it loiter unless you were doing something completely mad like Project Pluto? That just doesn't really make sense at all. Though it reminds me of a torpedo from a Michael DiMercurio book that had to be sedated due to it's carbon based computing matrix being smart enough to basically guarantee a hit on an enemy combatant submarine, but not smart enough to understand IFF.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by greedo on Saturday August 22, 2020 @05:48PM (#24247535)
Loitering missiles are excellent at destroying targets of opportunity; a radar site that is only active temporarily, a convoy of armor moving from its lager, etc etc etc.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by obmelvin on Saturday August 22, 2020 @10:14PM (#24249019)
Isn't that what a Predator/Reaper is for? Maybe I'm lacking imagination, but a loitering missile seems very difficult to make.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by Aeolun on Saturday August 22, 2020 @06:24AM (#24243139)
So we’ll have AI controlled missiles instead? With small missiles attached to them to fire at enemy aircraft.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by solotronics on Friday August 21, 2020 @01:11PM (#24236800)
maybe this would lead to smart missiles or a platform to launch them that can loiter near the battlefield, directed by a pilot or controller nearby
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by nradov on Friday August 21, 2020 @01:51PM (#24237209)
Smart loitering munitions already exist.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by salawat on Saturday August 22, 2020 @04:12PM (#24246916)
Loitering in the sense of expending fuel load until a hypothetical target arrives? Or loitering in the sense it's there for reconissance and isn't intended to directly destructively interact with the target?

There's a big difference between a Predator with Hellfires, a tomahawk, A Global Hawk, or a man portablerecon/kamikaze drone, and finally Project Pluto, the ultimate "F you" device likely ever contemplated.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by sandworm101 on Friday August 21, 2020 @04:15PM (#24238467)
High-G tolerance is not a dogfighting panacea. Even without the pilot, there are issues when you want to take a large aircraft into 10+g range. Structural strength is one thing but there are also aerodynamic limits. The higher the G the higher the stall speed. Superhuman or AI, trying to pull 10g in thin air will result in flow separation (ie stall) and departure from controlled flight... ie you lose control and drop like a rock.

Missiles don't care about stalling. They are on a suicide mission to get as close to the target as possible for the nanoseconds necessary to detonate. Missiles, being small and dense, are much stronger than any aircraft.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by jacquesm on Friday August 21, 2020 @04:49PM (#24238741)
Pilots do black out during high G maneuvers and the planes seem to be fine, so this is already a limitation for a human+plane combo that a plane alone would not have.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by stouset on Friday August 21, 2020 @06:17PM (#24239456)
Planes generally can't pull more Gs than the humans inside without needing to go through an extensive maintenance process.

Even then, as has been said countless times in this thread, high-G maneuvers don't do shit against modern missile threats. They might be useful for dogfighting with guns, but given the range and accuracy of modern missiles, combined with proximity fuzes, it simply doesn't accomplish much.

Against a weaker enemy, you'll never have the need to pull Gs in the first place. Against an equal or stronger enemy, it won't do a damn bit of difference anyway.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by LargoLasskhyfv on Friday August 21, 2020 @08:08PM (#24240291)
Might also be useful for firing missiles, without having them to expend their fuel, giving them a better starting angle, less time wasted in maneuvering around...
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by kadoban on Friday August 21, 2020 @07:48PM (#24240115)
I would suspect that that's due to there being no point in the past of engineering aircraft that can do acceleration that would kill the pilot inside.

Now that no pilot is necessarily needed, different choices can be made.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by stouset on Friday August 21, 2020 @07:59PM (#24240215)
No pilot doesn't change the fundamental calculus that high-G maneuvers are virtually useless against an oncoming missile.

Even if you could pull an instantaneous 10G acceleration completely perpendicular to your direction of flight without shedding airspeed (think: sideways-mounted rocket motor), in the time it takes a missile to close the last mile, you've moved less than 100ft. And all the while, the oncoming missile is actively tracking you. Even if it misses that's no big deal, since it uses proximity fuzing to blow up at its closest point to you.

High-G maneuvers are great for close-in battles to outmaneuver another plane and prevent a guns solution. They're becoming increasingly useless against modern IR missiles like the AIM-9X, and they're absolutely useless against a missile approaching at ludicrous speeds from 75+ miles away.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Friday August 21, 2020 @07:09PM (#24239864)
Dogfighting with guns is a great way to stop an incoming missile. You just need the ability to do high-G maneuvers and aim well. Shoot the missile.

It helps that bullets as small as 12.7mm can be steered.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by stouset on Friday August 21, 2020 @08:01PM (#24240228)
This comment is so far into Poe's law territory, I'm past the ability to tell if I'm being trolled or not.

In case I'm not being trolled: the way to defeat a radar-guided missile is to beam (fly perpendicular to) the radar source. For an missile with active or semi-active radar guidance, this means you need to fly perpendicular to it. And, preferably, fire lots of chaff.

This is fundamentally incompatible with the idea of flying straight at the missile trying to shoot it with guns. Head-on, a missile will close the last mile in under one second. During this second, you need to accurately track, predict the flight path of, and reliably put guns onto a target that's cold (all the fuel has been burnt) and has (in the case of an AMRAAM) a 7 inch diameter. And that very well may not even care about being shot up with bullets; at best, I think you'd kill the seeker, but within the last mile it's not changing course much to have to come close enough to kill you by the proximity fuze (of which I believe there are two, one in the nose and one in the tail). By the time the first of your slow-moving bullets has any shot of reaching it, it will easily be within a quarter of a mile.

This is not even a remotely plausible way to defeat an oncoming missile. It runs directly counter to the actions you already be taking to maximize your chance of survival. And on top of that, bullets are only going to damage the leading-edge parts of the missile which aren't particularly critical to its ability to kill you, at least not within the distance it will be by the time your hail-mary bullet salvo hits it.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by sandworm101 on Friday August 21, 2020 @11:39PM (#24241320)
It is beyond Poe. This is harry potter territory. Even if one had the magic bullets, you need to know where the missile is to within a few inches. Good luck with that. The missile is doing Mach4 and has the radar cross section of a small flightless ant. And your magic gun system has perhaps one or two seconds to track and engage that ant. Add to that the fact that your gun system is presenting a wonderful IR and radar-emitting target for the missile, and his swarm of buddies, to better home upon.

This is the sort of missile a fighter pilot is up against, 20 years ago. Look at what the sidewinder does at about 1:05. Good luck shooting that down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMSfg26YSQ

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Saturday August 22, 2020 @02:16AM (#24242078)
Why mention speed at all? Mach 4 is nothing. We can hit satellites and ICBM warheads going between Mach 20 and Mach 30. Speed of approach just means that the impact energy will be greater.

Impact energy grows with the square of the velocity. If the velocity doubles, that is like quadrupling the mass of the bullet, which is like turning 20mm ammo into 32.75mm ammo.

It's not like a small flightless ant on radar, and anyway a Mach 4 object will be hot from compression heating. Mach 4 is just below what it takes to rip air molecules apart. That's damn hot. IR tracking would be trivial.

There is no limit that says "one bullet only". Typically the Phalanx CIWS fires about 100 shells, and those aren't even equipped with seekers. It's just dumb 20mm shells, about the same as carried by the typical fighter plane, costing about $30 each. We use the Phalanx CIWS against incoming missiles. It works great.

BTW, that was an unimpressive video with no clear point. Yes, missiles can fly and go after targets. We all know this. It works especially well in the missile vendor's promotional video.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by imtringued on Saturday August 22, 2020 @04:10PM (#24246896)
>We can hit satellites and ICBM warheads going between Mach 20 and Mach 30.

I think you're forgetting that a lot of anti nuclear defense systems use nuclear weapons themselves. When you only need to be within a few hundred meters of a target accuracy suddenly doesn't matter at all, especially when you have several hours to predict the flight trajectory of the enemy missile.

If laser based CIWS turns out to be viable on aircraft then we would see a focus on bigger aircraft that can defend themselves against missiles but even then they would not directly fly into a missile if they can avoid it.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Saturday August 22, 2020 @05:01PM (#24247228)
I really mean "we can hit". We use direct impact, without any explosive, to destroy ICBM warheads and satellites.

The systems to use nuclear warheads against incoming nuclear warheads were decommissioned half a century ago. I don't think that was ever in use against satellites.

Lasers are nice, but definitely not needed. Phalanx CIWS uses about 100 unguided bullets to destroy an incoming missile. Modern US fighter aircraft carry the same diameter ammunition. The plane is like a flying CIWS, minus the software.

Eh, maybe minus the software. If the software existed, it might not be public. Maybe the F-22 or F-35 already have the capability, limited mainly by pilot G-force survival.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by salawat on Saturday August 22, 2020 @04:42PM (#24247115)
Only the Russians do from what I can find, and only around Moscow in theory. Everyone else tends to take the judo of a kinetic impactor approach.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Friday August 21, 2020 @09:03PM (#24240670)
We're assuming an AI here. It can aim. Bullets as small as 12.7 mm can even steer. Larger ones, such as those carried by modern fighter aircraft, can have independent seekers.

You said the missile had some amazing ability to turn, and now you're saying it has no fuel. You can't have it both ways. There is fuel, or there is no energy to spare. Being "cold" isn't generally possible; nothing cools instantly. Modern IR sensors do not rely on engine heat. Supersonic flight generates plenty of heat on the nose.

That last bit deserves more emphasis. Heat was a serious problem for the Concorde and SR-71, despite operating at much slower speeds. The missile is hypersonic. That is the speed at which air molecules come apart from the heat. IR detection will be trivial.

There is a circular circuit board that is very much needed for the proximity fuse. That is full width.

The speed of the missile contributes to its own destruction. Bullet impact will be devastating. The missile can not endure supersonic flight with a lopsided hole and a bunch of cracks, and it wouldn't fly straight even if it could. Tumbling means instant destruction, like Space Shuttle Columbia.

Shooting back is the action to maximize chance of survival. It takes priority; all other options are obsolete.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by thomasmeeks on Friday August 21, 2020 @11:11PM (#24241217)
What you’re suggesting is possible technically but nobody does it because the idea of having to turn your entire plane towards a missile threat to neutralize it virtually guarantees your destruction if two missiles are fired at you in rapid succession. This is not a rare occurrence. At all. Yes, from multiple directions. That’s exactly how surface-to-air systems are set up.

It becomes slightly more reasonable if you turret the gun, until you factor in the weight of the necessary ammunition to neutralize multiple threats, the turret itself, and the independent radar used for target acquisition and tracking. A B-52 could pull it off, a fighter couldn’t yet. Not without massively compromising their payload and aerodynamics.

Chaff, flares, stealth and jamming are used because they actually work in practice. Jamming is a big one that people don’t hear about much. Wonder how the B-52 is still in service? Jamming. Wonder how wild weasels do their job? Jamming.

When you see a turret like that on a bomber then you can get excited for self-guided bullets shooting down dozens of multiple incoming missiles. But tbh at the rate we’re going it’ll just be a laser instead.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by vl on Saturday August 22, 2020 @12:32AM (#24241559)
>Chaff, flares, stealth and jamming are used because they actually work

Don’t modern missiles use optical target acquisition in the first place?

BTW, tanks have active automatic ballistic defense systems for a while now.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by afrodc_ on Saturday August 22, 2020 @12:40AM (#24241590)
Thanks have a much more robust complement of armor compared to an aircraft. They defeat the mechanism of armor penetration in munitions before impacting the armor. They still take a significant beating after the munition is "defeated". Airplanes don't have armor in the same way a tank has. Even small arms fire can take out an aircraft, generally speaking.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by vl on Saturday August 22, 2020 @07:46PM (#24248240)
They now have active intercept systems: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by thomasmeeks on Saturday August 22, 2020 @02:34AM (#24242172)
The automatic ballistic defense systems a tank uses would obliterate an aircraft. They are basically shaped charges that explode outwards to deflect a munition. It only works because tanks have thick armor in a dense, heavy, package.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by vl on Saturday August 22, 2020 @07:47PM (#24248249)
Now they automatically shoot counter-projectile: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Saturday August 22, 2020 @03:07AM (#24242314)
That is an old system, mainly used by the USSR, and mainly intended to act against long piercing projectiles of depleted uranium.

It is more common to have active electronic systems. For example, one such system fires grenade-like projectiles upward that then explode in a downward direction. The timing is accurate enough that the incoming attack is hit by the shrapnel. Another system is more like a shotgun.

The more reasonable comparison is ship-based defense systems. The USA uses the Phalanx CIWS, which fires simple dumb projectiles of the same diameter as those of a typical fighter plane gun. About 100 are fired to destroy an incoming missile.

Adding an AI to a modern fighter makes it an awful lot like a flying Phalanx CIWS. You have a nearly identical gun with a nearly identical radar.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by greedo on Saturday August 22, 2020 @05:52PM (#24247559)
Modern ATGMs are usually subsonic; none of the protective systems on tanks are designed to counter supersonic missiles or projectiles. There's a world of difference in countering a Mach 3 missile and a TOW or Hellfire.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Saturday August 22, 2020 @09:42PM (#24248854)
Incoming speed doesn't help the attacker unless it beats the sensors, which operate at the speed of light. Mach 3 missiles impact Mach 0.1 shrapnel at about Mach 3.

That helps the defender. The faster the missile goes, the harder it gets hit by defensive shrapnel.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by greedo on Tuesday August 25, 2020 @09:55AM (#24271370)
Speed makes the engagement cycle short; instead of having maybe 2 shots at an incoming missile, you get one. And if your system is too slow, it has no chance of reacting in time. Most systems are designed to defend against missiles, but are ineffective against cannon rounds (APFDS).
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by jacquesm on Saturday August 22, 2020 @09:35AM (#24244020)
Fantasy beats technology and physics any day.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Saturday August 22, 2020 @11:51PM (#24249383)
Right: the fantasy Mach 4 missile that maneuvers with the engine shut down, does not experience compression heating from hypersonic flight, survives Mach 4 impact with tungsten 20mm shells, can track an enemy through a cloud of 100 incoming 20mm shells, and can maneuver with zero turn radius without losing energy.

I'd like some of that.

Phalanx CIWS was prototyped in 1973 and has been in service since 1980. Shooting down incoming missiles with machine gun fire has been viable for a very long time.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by dragonwriter on Sunday August 23, 2020 @05:18PM (#24255368)
> Mach 4 missile that maneuvers with the engine shut down, does not experience compression heating from hypersonic flight

Well, if it's only Mach 4, it won't ever experience hypersonic flight, so that's pretty much a given.

> Phalanx CIWS was prototyped in 1973 and has been in service since 1980. Shooting down incoming missiles with machine gun fire has been viable for a very long time

Sure, if you are firing at much slower missiles and you've got a platform big enough to mount a rapid-rotating turreted Vulcan on, and even then it's not super reliable which is why it's being replaced or supplemented in newer deployments with systems based around the Rolling Airframe Missile.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by raducu on Sunday August 23, 2020 @03:04PM (#24254391)
Has Phalanx ever been tested against a supersonic missile?

Also, there is no way to install such a system on a fighter airplane.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Sunday August 23, 2020 @05:04PM (#24255283)
The entire airplane is that system.

It has nearly the same gun, 20mm in both cases. It has fancy radar. Basically, a modern fighter plane is a flying CIWS, if it has the software to do so.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by dragonwriter on Sunday August 23, 2020 @05:12PM (#24255337)
> Basically, a modern fighter plane is a flying CIWS, if it has the software to do so.

No, it's not, because it can't change targeting axis fast enough; you'd have to have a turret mounted gun plus software, which is simply not feasible for a fighter.

Also, a major surface warship can afford to expend a lot more weight of ordnance defending against a single missile than a fighter can without sacrificing whatever mission it was protecting itself to accomplish.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by burfog on Sunday August 23, 2020 @07:21PM (#24256142)
Turn rate of a CIWS varies from 50 to 115 degrees per second.

The F-22 can sustain over 30 degrees per second. The exact value, and the instantaneous value, are both classified.

That isn't way off. Limits are in place to prevent pilot blackout, but since we're discussing an AI pilot here, the limits could be removed.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by raducu on Wednesday August 26, 2020 @11:05AM (#24283101)
But how many rounds are usually expended per missile intercept?

How many rounds does an aircraft carry?

Can CIWS intercept a Mach 3 missile while on an aircraft flying above Mach 1 (a relative speed of Mach 4+)?

Is it a good tactic to point your aircraft nose at an incoming missile?

Why hasn't this been done already?

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by pdoege on Sunday August 23, 2020 @01:52AM (#24249866)
Back when I was playing the game the Moskit and its derivatives made the CIWS obsolete. The short engagement range meant that the debris of the threat would impact and mission kill.

The larger 30mm and RAM were created to extend that range. We planned to engage when the thermal plume was detected on the horizon.

The higher speed of ballistic threats meant that the pK of the SM-3 was pretty low. Luckily finding ships at sea is hard.

In a fight against a first line threat it was best to be in a boomer.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by andrewflnr on Friday August 21, 2020 @09:20PM (#24240756)
It doesn't have to be a panacea, or even decisive, to be a factor worth mentioning.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by outworlder on Friday August 21, 2020 @05:39PM (#24239144)
> will result in flow separation

With thrust vectoring and a TWR > 1 this is less of a concern.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by stouset on Friday August 21, 2020 @06:22PM (#24239497)
No, this is ridiculous. It's absolutely a concern. Having attitude control at stall speeds makes for impressive air shows but doesn't help even slightly against an oncoming missile.

Sure you can point the nose wherever you feel like, but from the missile's perspective all you've done is given up your ability to make abrupt changes in direction and made its job of predicting your future location easier. Without lift under the wings, you're spinning the plane around on its axis but you're not actually changing the plane's motion vector as much as if you'd made a coordinated turn.

And on top of all this, a missile doesn't actually have to hit you directly to kill you. Missiles are proximity fuzed, so simply blow up next to you. Even a fancy 10G maneuver (a maneuver with thrust-vectoring while stalled, by the way, is ~0-1G since you're mostly just a ballistic object) isn't going to help much against a missile at Mach 4 that can pull 50G.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by fatbird on Friday August 21, 2020 @11:35AM (#24235732)
I'm sure someone in these programs has speculated what air combat would look like between AIs where body-based thresholds are removed and machine learning has developed new tactics that are only applicable in a pure AI arena. I'd be really interested in seeing those speculations.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by ThrustVectoring on Friday August 21, 2020 @01:51PM (#24237204)
I'd honestly be quite surprised if AI research discovers novel and useful dogfight tactics. The interplay between speed, height, position, and direction has been pretty thoroughly mined for ideas, there's been little in terms of updates since Boyd's 1964 Aerial Attack Study (I found a copy at http://oplaunch.com/resources/aerial-attack-study-1964.pdf if you're curious)
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by jrd259 on Friday August 21, 2020 @04:36PM (#24238622)
Then again, the AI system Eurisko won the Trillon Credit Squadron game twice in a row, each time with novel strategies. You might say that dogfighting is more constrained by laws of physics we already know, and so this won't happen. But wouldn't you hate to be proven wrong?
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by jeffshek on Friday August 21, 2020 @09:19PM (#24240749)
I would bet the inverse. If the majority of tactics is spearheaded by one person from 1964 - that probably means there's a lot of innovation.

I found reading Boyd's biography, so much effort was made before decision makers would use his tactics, even when they were clearly superior.

Even board game like Go and Chess have experienced new and novel tactics from AI despite being much older, with lower barriers to entry. Inversely, dogfighting is new and the barriers to entry are so high its unlikely its close to optimal.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by AnotherGoodName on Friday August 21, 2020 @12:03PM (#24236005)
I can't help but think a drone aircraft is essentially the same as a guided missile except the exploding pieces are modular rather than exploding itself and thus the majority of it is re-usable.

We already shoot missiles at other missiles. Drones will make that cheaper. In other words i think the biggest change will be in the economics of war. War will become much cheaper in the same way SpaceX's reusable rockets made space travel much cheaper.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by msla on Friday August 21, 2020 @12:37PM (#24236404)
So the enemy's goal is to convince people on our side that using drones in combat is utterly beyond the pale, something only a monster would do. This prevents them from being developed, lest the military feel severe backlash even from within its own ranks, and ensures we're committed to human-flown craft while the enemy gets to field drones.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by salawat on Saturday August 22, 2020 @04:58PM (#24247207)
...it's not the enemy, it's anyone with any appreciation for the physical forces to which a warfighting machine is subject, and the economic factors at play that make production of those systems as disastrous to the nation employing them as not doing anything at all. Keep in mind, a large contribution to the collapse of the USSR was the incredible financial strain created by defense spending in response to the Star Wars defense system initiative.

It was an economic victory for the U.S. more than anything else. There is always a balance. It's just like the hoopla over hypersonic cruise weapons. Sounds horrifying. Until you realize the trumpet bell makes countering them easier rather than harder as long as you detect them early, because there is simply no way to reorient quickly at those speeds without being torn apart.

Further, no one is saying we should stick with manned fighter craft, only that they won't likely be the silver bullet everyone seems to think they will be, will be fraught with their own weaknesses, may not in the long run be cheaper than man operated, and may Coe with unforeseen doctrinal changes as the enemy adapts.

War is complicated, and rarely does who has the cooler gun perfectly translate to who wins or loses.

Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by imtringued on Saturday August 22, 2020 @04:19PM (#24246955)
Just because drones make sense in a war between nations doesn't mean they can't be abused by governments against civilians. There is no shortage of governments that attacked their own citizens and with drones it becomes even easier.
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by nippoo on Friday August 21, 2020 @05:49PM (#24239231)
Modern warfare is eventually just an economic game. How many missiles can you afford to launch, and how many missile defences can you afford to build? (/ how much can you afford to spend on military R&D?).
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by mNovak on Friday August 21, 2020 @12:10PM (#24236089)
I agree war will become a numbers game even moreso than it already is, by taking out the 'incalculable' losses of human life on both sides of an engagement. But modern combat systems are definitely not cheap!
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by bserge on Friday August 21, 2020 @12:42PM (#24236478)
Gee, I can't wait to see which poor country one of the big players will attack next /s
Re:AI slays top F-16 pilot in DARPA dogfight simulation by imtringued on Saturday August 22, 2020 @04:13PM (#24246919)
If that's true then why has nobody invented a missile that is equipped with a metal storm [0] as its warhead?

[0] https://youtu.be/wKlnMwuCZso