Bars and handshakes have survived thousands of years of pandemics. I get that people always tend to think their moment in history is particularly special, but I'm just gonna say if the black death didn't do something in this won't either
I agree. Do people think it's really a good idea to always be coddling your immune system? If this were to happen, the next pandemic will probably be far worse. Just saw a study that says that having the cold recently could help your immune system fight covid-19. Of course I don't know how accurate it is, but the one thing I do know is that nobody fully understands covid and how the immune system handles it.
It's not something to base public health policy around though!
You are certainly right that we lack a lot of understanding, including about various kinds of immune response to the virus which is critical to developing an effective vaccine. The level of scientific activity around this one virus is utterly phenomenal though. I'd like to think this is going to be a defining moment for human medicine, but I fear it might turn out otherwise.
Take the searches for yeast and recipe, for example. I don’t think its totally farfetched to imagine that a sizeable handful of people have wondered, maybe for the first time, how to bake things like bread and cookies or how to make meatballs. It would be really cool if we actually saw these things’ growth in popularity persist in some tangible form into the future. These things have definitely existed for a long time, but I feel like we North Americans have been trending towards fast food and delivered meals for a few decades now.
However, specifically on the bread making aspect, we should probably do some back of the napkin estimations before supporting this more long term.
One good thing about a bakery is that it uses huge ovens, in which multiples trays of bread are baked, at the same time, with minimal dead space.
Contrast that with the scenario where we all decide to start baking our own bread, in a normal oven, raising it to very high temperatures, for a long period, to bake a single loaf every 1 or 2 days. This sort of makes me worry what would be the carbon impact of that consumer change?
Your point still stands though. I just thought I would point that out as I found it somewhat interesting because for a long time I had assumed that restaurant business was much older than that.
depends what you mean by a bar?
In the UK, taverns certainly existed prior to the Black Death (1346 – 1353). For instance:
> Established in the 13th Century, The White Hart Inn on Drury Lane claims to be London’s oldest pub. Historical records show its first license was granted as early as 1216
https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2017/10/the-15-oldest-pubs...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/08/10/restaurants...
Most of those thousands of years we had no clue such things could spread diseases.
I hope so. Handshakes are pathogen vector I can easily do without. And they don't seem essential to anyone's livelihood.
> handshakes have survived thousands of years of pandemics. I get that people always tend to think their moment in history is particularly special, but I'm just gonna say if the black death didn't do something in this won't either
Our understanding of infection has advanced since then. Let's apply the knowledge.
If a prepper subscribed to your idea wouldn't they think they are better off not equal because of the investments they made.
A great deal of human existence is comparing yourselves to others, and exalting youself over everyone else when possible. If you can't be better than them at least you can take consolation they're equally miserable.
Post-pandemic, yes, some items from that page are going to return to pre-pandemic numbers, I'm sure - hangover, restaurant, ticket, etc.
But for people who've discovered that stuff they grow at home - from herbs on the balcony to tomatoes in the yard - taste much better, are unlikely to just forget that.
Similarly people discovering this year that they enjoy the process and flavours of cooking or baking bread are also unlikely to forget it all.
Ditto people who pay more attention to their health and work environment - dumbbell, standing desk.
Google search terms are likely to reach stasis, of course, as people who want this knowledge now have it, but that doesn't mean there won't be a shift in people's behaviours and activities.
That is, until everyone has to go back to working in offices etc, and they realise they don't have time to maintain a garden any more.
> I just don't think the Economist or anyone else is going to be any good at predicting what.
So your early prediction is that their early predictions are going to be wrong? ; )
That said I'm definitely making it a goal to never buy green onions again - it's so easy to regrow them.
My gut feel is that because there was already a popular trend to 'getting your fingers in the soil', as well as the slow food movement, that combined with the forced rethink of how we spend time, effort, and money, we will see some longer lasting effects.
An obvious example in the UK is people switching to grocery delivery. Some people will switch back but a lot will continue because the virus helped them past whatever inertia was holding them back before.
It's true that people don't have the same information and perspective as they will later, but time also warps and obscures aspects of a period when history is being made.
In the "it's an improvement" sense, not the "it's a permanent change" sense.