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Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by marcinzm on Thursday July 02, 2020 @09:55PM (#23720338)
I wonder what modern day ideas are considered utter insanity in 70 years.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by austincheney on Thursday July 02, 2020 @10:01PM (#23720367)
Giving your personal data away for free to social media for public exhibition and to be monetized as a weapon against you.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by scoopertrooper on Friday July 03, 2020 @01:20AM (#23721243)
Doesn't have quite the same punch as terraforming earth with nuclear bombs.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by remarkEon on Friday July 03, 2020 @02:58AM (#23721688)
Yeah, just wait a couple decades.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by salawat on Friday July 03, 2020 @02:14PM (#23726171)
CRISPR genengineering of human embryos maybe?

Gain-of-function histological research a close second.

God willing, modern economic theory.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by paulcole on Thursday July 02, 2020 @10:16PM (#23720441)
Not even going to be in the top 50.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Shared404 on Thursday July 02, 2020 @11:10PM (#23720700)
Although you may be right, something like [1] showing election manipulation very well could end up in the top 10, I would think.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook%E2%80%93Cambridge_Ana...

edit: Change tone to be less snarky/combative. It was unintentional if I came across as rude.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by paulie_a on Friday July 03, 2020 @02:43AM (#23721620)
Which had zero long term implications. Some minor and now totally forgotten short term repurcussions.

The policy could be updated "we will sell the creepiest of the creepiest data on you and your friends. Hell your friends don't even need to sign up." And it would hardly change usage patterns.

Cambridge was a tiny distraction of the week that had no lasting effects.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by gvjddbnvdrbv on Friday July 03, 2020 @11:38AM (#23724910)
Brexit??? It's going to have massive effects for a long time.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by kortilla on Friday July 03, 2020 @03:28AM (#23721821)
Elections have been fraught with various levels of targeted propaganda for a long time. Cambridge Analytica didn’t really even prove it worked better than previous methods of targeted advertising.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Kednicma on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:18AM (#23720973)
Probably at least one part of our current electrochemical model will be considered hilariously wrong, on the same level of wrongness as the planetary model of the atom is considered today. Perhaps our hopes of the island of stability [0] will be dashed.

Economists and mathematicians will eventually have a conversation which upends all known slogans of economics, forming a new school. It happens every few decades.

The era of antibiotics is drawing to a close, as antibiotic resistance continues to grow. Meanwhile, phage therapy [1] is still being discovered but likely will give us a route to a kind of antibacterial and antibiotic therapy which is not as broad-spectrum as our existing drugs. Similarly, chemotherapy may give way to more targeted ways to deal with cancers, and eventually we might see some of these harsher treatments as akin to the overuse of radiotherapy during the era of radioactive quackery [2].

High fructose corn syrup may yet have its reckoning. Strangely, before 2020, this wouldn't have been thinkable, but we know from history that the Great Depression and World Wars changed the composition of dishes all around the world and even in industrialized recipes. The pandemic may yet change peoples' diets in ways which we won't understand for a decade or two, and the proper nutritional correction may take another few decades after that.

Our children may be sincere about dealing with climate change. If so, then they may fly less, shrink standing armies, forbid the import/export of oil, drive less, set the thermostat a couple degrees hotter, or take many other relatively minor changes to parts of society which we usually imagine not changing at all.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phage_therapy

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactive_quackery

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by ComputerGuru on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:32AM (#23721029)
> Our children may be sincere about dealing with climate change.

Indeed they may. And we can either teach them to encourage it or ignore them and not even do that small part.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by xkcd-sucks on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:24AM (#23720999)
Chemistry is all about good-enough approximations, of which the planetary model is one, for simple organic reactions at least. Doubt it's going away
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Kednicma on Friday July 03, 2020 @09:20AM (#23723742)
For simple organic reactions, the shape of benzene [0] matters. Benzene has its quirky ring shape thanks to pi bonds [1], which only make sense in a 3D orbital model. The planetary model already has trouble with benzene formation and reactions. Another good example is water, whose hydrogen atoms are physically positioned almost entirely within the oxygen atom, according to the planetary model. Water's actual orbitals [2] have massive "echo" interactions on the hydrogen sides, which "push" the electrons onto one side of the molecule. Doing this with orbital mechanics alone would be, at a minimum, a headache.

The essential main problem with the planetary model is in the word "planetes" or "wanderer"; electrons are not exactly point charges whizzing about the nucleus at high speed (although they kind of are, because of gold's color and other properties) but more like smeared-out across an orbital. Think of soft electron-butter being spread by a galactic butter knife.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benzene

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_bond

[2] http://www1.lsbu.ac.uk/water/h2o_orbitals.html

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by kortilla on Friday July 03, 2020 @03:45AM (#23721910)
> If so, then they may fly less, shrink standing armies, forbid the import/export of oil, drive less, set the thermostat a couple degrees hotter,

It would be sad if their reaction is this pathetic. We need much more drastic changes than that right now, let alone 18 years from now.

The thermostat matters fuck-all compared to modernizing the insulation and getting renewable power to the house.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by fennecfoxen on Friday July 03, 2020 @09:00AM (#23723572)
And I’m not sure why the “import and export” of oil is mentioned here. I guess there are some marginal reductions in emissions if you move it around, but the big supertankers are pretty efficient.

Really it sounds more like some ploy to keep America using less oil, without outright saying that, and, well... the idea must date to before we became one of the top producers in the world. I guess it could work for Europeans if they’re really, really willing to suffer for it (and it does spite Russia, which isn’t nothing in terms of European geopolitics)

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Kednicma on Friday July 03, 2020 @09:28AM (#23723812)
I mention oil because it's a genuine part of the political window today (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Tom Steyer all supported banning oil exports, but I'm having trouble finding primary sources; Biden also may limit oil exports). What people discuss today, they may do tomorrow.

I understand what you're reading into, but the main reasons to limit oil exports and imports are simpler than that. First, as you say, the USA is a massive oil producer. We compete directly with OPEC. We are also one of the largest oil consumers. Unsurprisingly, politicians like Bernie therefore have reasoned that it would be a sane protectionist and mercantile move to limit oil exports, keeping USA oil in the USA and thus limiting the need for oil imports. It's just cheaper that way; while not all oil is alike, crude oil is fungible enough to make this feasible.

Also like you say, spiting Russia is important, although OPEC may fall apart before too long. There's a lot of handwaving here and anything could happen.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by fennecfoxen on Friday July 03, 2020 @11:16AM (#23724721)
> It's just cheaper that way; while not all oil is alike, crude oil is fungible enough to make this feasible.

If it really was cheaper that way, there would be no need to intervene.

But maybe some of the expense is caused by regulations which don't make sense. Could I get you to consider repealing the Jones Act so that it's legal to ship oil between different ports in the US using tankers? (Technically it doesn't make the tankers illegal on the face of it. It just requires them to be US built, owned, and crewed by citizens, like all other use of boats in the US. There are no tankers built in the US today; there aren't many boats built at all. Puerto Rico and Hawaii suffer in particular as a result must import key supplies from outside the US.) Yeah, you'd still be burning oil to move oil, but it's not like sending it in trains and pipelines is free either.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by mhh__ on Thursday July 02, 2020 @11:00PM (#23720657)
climate change denial, it will have probably become obvious by then.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by est31 on Thursday July 02, 2020 @11:44PM (#23720835)
There are corona denialists out there still to this date. So I'm a pessimist on that one :(.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Shared404 on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:36AM (#23721045)
It seems like this is partially because (in the US at least) covid is a largely political thing, as stupid as that is.

Once we are 50 years in the future I think both of these will be regarded as stupid/backward.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by labster on Friday July 03, 2020 @01:58AM (#23721398)
On a fragment of a stele recovered from Atlantis, this was inscribed and translated:

“Daddy, why do we live under water if we breathe air?”

“Darling, it’s just because of natural variability.”

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by mamon on Friday July 03, 2020 @08:42AM (#23723471)
Even if coronavirus actually exists I would still consider COVID-19 epidemic to be mostly a social experiment, basically the extended version of War of the Worlds [1]

Governments are testing how many idiotic rules can they make us follow, preparing for the switch from democracy to surveillance-based totalitarism.

The actual mortality rates are not enough to justify all those limitations - most people infected by coronavirus don't even have any symptoms, majority of those who have symptoms will get through them as they would through a normal flu. If anything, we should order the old people (say 70+) to stay home, as they seem to be the only real risk group.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_of_the_Worlds_(radio_d...

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by k4runa on Thursday July 02, 2020 @10:33PM (#23720534)
I reckon trying to grow all our food in smart greenhouses will seem silly in hindsight.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by dylan604 on Thursday July 02, 2020 @10:46PM (#23720593)
Tell that to the Martian colonies. Maybe if you're considering feed the population of Earth it might seem silly, but for off-world populations that will be the only way to grow food.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by TheOtherHobbes on Friday July 03, 2020 @09:54AM (#23724037)
The idea that we can even have Martian colonies is ludicrous given our current skills.

Getting there is the easy part. Building a self-sustaining ecology on Mars is harder - much harder. And if you look into the research, you'll see there's much less than you'd think.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by labster on Thursday July 02, 2020 @11:22PM (#23720756)
Legacy systems in Go and Rust.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by tandr on Friday July 03, 2020 @01:35AM (#23721304)
If that's going to pan out somehow, you can get a bit of sneak peek into what future developer will feel like by looking into k8s code today...
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by emptybits on Thursday July 02, 2020 @11:29PM (#23720778)
Large scale meat farming practices.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Gibbon1 on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:02AM (#23720902)
I think meat production, inorganic fertilizers, and pesticides likely.

Also read an essay where the author claims the biggest mistake of the last 10,000 years was basing our food crops on grasses.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by ComputerGuru on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:27AM (#23721013)
What was the suggested alternative to grasses?

Guns, Germs, and Steel goes into this a great deal and the conclusion there is that in many ways precursors to today’s wheat is the miracle that gave birth to modern civilization.

Potential alternatives would need to provide similar nutrition (esp protein), be easily amenable to “naturally” providing selective breeding for choice traits, be easy to sow and harvest for hunter gatherers to become farmers, and be resilient enough to provide a model for civilizations around the globe.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Gibbon1 on Friday July 03, 2020 @01:39AM (#23721316)
I can try and dig for the original source, though google search has turned to shit in the last few years.

What I remember is the advantage of grasses is as annuals you can selectively breed productive strains quickly. And that's true of other annual crops. Downside is they require a lot of nutrients and water because the whole plant needs to regrow from seed every year and they have shallow roots. That leads to energy and environmentally damaging agriculture.

Potential solution is perennial shrubs and trees. Perennials have deeper roots and require less water and fertilizer. And don't require the land to be plowed every year.

The latter is a real problem. People talk about global warming, less well known is the world is very quickly losing topsoil.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by kwistzhaderach on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:31AM (#23721025)
Is there a link to the article?
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by dylan604 on Thursday July 02, 2020 @10:43PM (#23720578)
The reduction of CAFE standards and other decisions not to reduce harmful emissions.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by valuearb on Friday July 03, 2020 @02:20AM (#23721506)
CAFE isn’t an emission reduction program.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Balgair on Friday July 03, 2020 @06:13PM (#23728116)
Fingers-crossed: Chemotherapies.

I'm soooo hoping that CRIPSR and the like help out with cancer and other diseases that use chemo as treatment.

Seriously, fuck cancer.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by pratnala on Thursday July 02, 2020 @11:40PM (#23720825)
Politicizing wearing masks. Oh wait, that's utter insanity even today
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by 7952 on Friday July 03, 2020 @02:09AM (#23721450)
That burning wood is a really neat idea.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by microcolonel on Thursday July 02, 2020 @11:06PM (#23720683)
Critical theory.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by kwistzhaderach on Friday July 03, 2020 @12:32AM (#23721031)
It’s utter insanity now
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by microcolonel on Friday July 03, 2020 @10:10AM (#23724159)
It's also the mainstream, now that millennial graduates are seeping into the institutions. I'm sure some important people knew phrenology was dumb when it was big, didn't make it less dumb 70+ years later.
Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Kednicma on Friday July 03, 2020 @11:42AM (#23724935)
This has been kind of a content-free thread. Could you explain more? Critical theory itself is almost a century old, in terms of who originally talked about it, and today the idea of critical thinking and critical reading is not just mainstream, but part of public education; meanwhile, nothing bad seems to have actually happened as a result of critical theory.

Edit: I don't like the phrasing I used in this first paragraph. To be more clear: The fact that the government publically funds an effort to teach children to examine the government's official declarations, question their authorities, and study the power structures which control them, is a surprising success of critical theory.

Phrenology is roundly countered by basic genetics; pedigree collapse directly implies that humanity forms one single race. Similarly, we have studied skulls enough to be confident that phrenology has no predictive power. What sorts of similar "showstopper" evidence do you have against critical theory?

The best criticisms against critical theory are listed on Wikipedia [0], but I don't think that you are talking about either of them. (Those criticisms are that critical theory is insufficiently Marxist, and that it lacks praxis.)

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_theory#Criticism

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by microcolonel on Friday July 03, 2020 @03:07PM (#23726577)
> ...and today the idea of critical thinking and critical reading is not just mainstream, but part of public education...

Critical theory is not critical thinking

> The best criticisms against critical theory are listed on Wikipedia

That's quite a bold claim, how often are the best criticisms of anything listed on Wikipedia?

> What sorts of similar "showstopper" evidence do you have against critical theory

Well, it is explicitly not concerned with evidence, the thing you are attempting to appeal to in this question.

Hacker News calls upon us to assume good faith, so I'll stop here.

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by Kednicma on Friday July 03, 2020 @04:00PM (#23726984)
Modern critical thinking definitely owes a lot to critical theory. The ability to look at statements from the government and think about the ways in which the statement might mislead or outright lie is directly tied to the original climate of the Frankfurt School.

Typically, we refute philosophical positions by some sort of evidence. Without evidence, there's only opinions, and those are cheap and limitless. Indeed, in this very thread, basically all of the links and evidence have come from only one side. The only claims you've made with any substance are about phrenology and "millenials" in "institutions". I tackled the former; the latter is easily handled by remembering that critical theory started as an academic endeavor, and never really has been foreign to higher education. Although, as I describe this latter position, I'm reminded of the belief in the Cultural Marxism conspiracy theory. I don't know why people believe this; Marxists are pretty open about studying labor and power, and the fact that critical theory is a decades-long multidisciplinary research movement rather than a single meeting would suggest that it is not hiding some cryptic agenda.

It sounds like you think that critical theory ought not exist at all, but we would have to remove an entire score of history and philosophy from our discourse in order to do so; you'd have to prevent the First World War somehow. See [0] for a reasonable introduction to the Frankfurt School and critical theory. You might also like the second and third videos from the playlist [1].

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g5_tuXwOUg

[1] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJA_jUddXvY7v0VkYRbAN...

Re:A 1950s proposal to nuke Alaska (2015) by kortilla on Friday July 03, 2020 @03:37AM (#23721867)
The low bar for most of the social science publications and subsequently most of the findings from these fields so far. Entire branches of science make sweeping claims about races/classes of people based on one study in a small college town with 20 participants.

Now that the reproducibility crisis is shining light on this modern tea leave reading, hopefully the groundwork is being laid for overhauls of these fields.