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Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by lordnacho on Monday April 20, 2020 @04:28PM (#22928141)
> What I don't understand is why the sudden move today? Did the longs think they had a place to put the oil on Friday but found out over the weekend they had no place to put it? Just seems like you would know what to do with the oil on Friday. Note this is not a rhetorical question, I would sincerely like an answer.

Guys like myself, an ex fund manager, could be tourists in the oil market. I know I was, speculating occasionally on oil without knowing a whole lot about the details. Plenty of macro guys are similar, they bet on the large movements as the opportunites present themselves and don't worry about the details.

So what has probably happened is some of these tourists have had a few contracts left over that they forgot about or didn't discover in their position keeping until their prime brokers phoned them, and they had to dump into a market under very special conditions. Hopefully not very many contracts.

In normal times if you screwed up and had to do delivery, it stil wouldn't be a big problem, because the storage is available and you essentially just buy it (by trading with a guy who actually knows how to organize it), costing relatively little.

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by hermitdev on Monday April 20, 2020 @05:37PM (#22928886)
This reminds me of Brian Hunter [0] of Amaranth fame. He was on the wrong side of a huge (multi billion USD) long trade on Natural Gas. When faced with losing it all, he doubled down. Blew up Amaranth. $9B USD hedge fund blew up basically overnight. Margin calls, etc, etc.

Disclaimer: I worked for the hedge fund at the time that bought Amaranth's holdings for pennies on the dollar. Was supposed to be a joint buyout with JP Morgan Chase, but Chase couldn't calculate the risk in time before closing and left us with all of the eggs in the basket. We ended up making a killing on the deal as we had the assets to weather the margin calls. I still can't believe anyone gave B.H. any money to trade with after that, but someone did...

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Hunter_(trader)

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by MR4D on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:18PM (#22929372)
One thing is clear to me - somebody is getting fired this week. Not sure if it's a hedge fund or producer, or a trader or a team, but someone is getting fired.
Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by baggy_trough on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:50PM (#22929706)
Everyone is getting fired.
Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by MR4D on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @12:17AM (#22931815)
Not likely. This could actually be one person/team who was out of balance on their book.

Back in 2008 when oil hit $150, it was due to a single trader. Needless to say, everyone in the industry was pissed at him afterwards.

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by baggy_trough on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @05:45PM (#22939656)
Everyone in the economy is getting fired.
Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by divbzero on Monday April 20, 2020 @10:54PM (#22931363)
I recall Amaranth was recruiting on campus that week, and cancelled all interviews the very next week.
Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by loa_in_ on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:13PM (#22929324)
That man is one of a very small group according to this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Rogue_traders

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by jjallen on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @12:22PM (#22936374)
Arguably he wasn't rogue, judging from John Arnold's account of the situation[0]. He just made way to big of a trade.

Think his account is somewhere between 10-20 minutes in this video 0. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=68&v=G6zFBzadTw0...

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by 0x8BADF00D on Monday April 20, 2020 @04:44PM (#22928311)
A really risky (but I think worth the risk) bet is to buy the front and sell the back. You will receive a huge credit, and as long as you close out the back leg below what you sold for, you’re in the clear.
Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by lordnacho on Monday April 20, 2020 @04:51PM (#22928396)
This isn't possible, except for people who can deal with the physical logistics. If you buy the front, you need to put the stuff somewhere for a month.

Chances are the people who got stuck selling at negative prices were actually doing just what you describe, they just weren't planning on the spread blowing out from physical issues.

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by 0x8BADF00D on Monday April 20, 2020 @04:53PM (#22928410)
I don’t see supercontango lasting forever. At some point oil demand will rise. Even if it’s a small rise.

And you typically should close out combination orders well before expiration.

Re:Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract e... by cascom on Monday April 20, 2020 @05:27PM (#22928768)
How do you not get eaten alive by the negative roll yield (super contango) if you don’t have access to storage?