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Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by FabHK on Sunday April 19, 2020 @05:32PM (#22918967)
> because of the inherent corruption, greed, biases, and prejudices at play.

You and I must be thinking of different professionals.

At any rate, here are two very very very simple models of this epidemic: a) cases will grow linearly, b) cases will grow exponentially.

Super simple. extremely different outcome. Now, one still has to make policy decisions.

I think the solution is not fewer professionals, but more and better professionals.

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by a1369209993 on Sunday April 19, 2020 @06:31PM (#22919341)
> You and I must be thinking of different professionals.

Not sure about you, but I suspect they're thinking of professional politicians and the professionals politicians hire.

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by scoot_718 on Sunday April 19, 2020 @07:03PM (#22919529)
> You and I must be thinking of different professionals.

That's the kind of bias he was probably thinking of.

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by samatman on Sunday April 19, 2020 @06:20PM (#22919268)
Both of these are wrong, and the exponential one becomes more wrong faster, while being a better match for the beginning of the curve.

Exponential processes don't exist in nature, they always break into some other curve at some point.

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by jhayward on Sunday April 19, 2020 @07:39PM (#22919737)
This is a useless bit of pedantry. The exponential portion of the sigmoid curve is the only part that matters to human health, survival, and economic well-being.
Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by nl on Sunday April 19, 2020 @10:42PM (#22920675)
No it's absolutely not!!

Epidemics are (more) properly modelled by the Gompertz function[1], and the position of the "transition" between the exponential portion and non-exponential points it the important point.

That is exactly what the person you are replying to is saying ("they always break into some other curve at some point.").

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by BaronSamedi on Monday April 20, 2020 @07:11AM (#22922843)
Is the Gompertz function the function behind the standard "epi curve"? It appears from the CDC web site and other places that the epi curve is the standard way epidemics are modeled. The CDC even has a simple tutorial for creating them: https://www.cdc.gov/training/quicklearns/createepi/index.htm...
Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by nl on Monday April 20, 2020 @10:20AM (#22924001)
No.

An epi curve is created from observations and shows new infections per day.

The Gompertz function is a mathematical formula and can be used to estimate total infections up to a date.

However, if you take the epi curve and plot the aggregate number of infections you'll find a curve that the Gompertz function approximates quite well.

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by samatman on Sunday April 19, 2020 @08:54PM (#22920168)
Then why, pray tell, is the title of the article we are discussing not "Forecasting exponential curves is hard"?

The entire point is that forecasting exponentials is easy but becomes badly wrong at some point and that point is difficult to forecast