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A comment on Forecasting s-curves is hard. Parent comment

Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by nl on Sunday April 19, 2020 @10:42PM (#22920675)
No it's absolutely not!!

Epidemics are (more) properly modelled by the Gompertz function[1], and the position of the "transition" between the exponential portion and non-exponential points it the important point.

That is exactly what the person you are replying to is saying ("they always break into some other curve at some point.").

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function

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Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by BaronSamedi on Monday April 20, 2020 @07:11AM (#22922843)
Is the Gompertz function the function behind the standard "epi curve"? It appears from the CDC web site and other places that the epi curve is the standard way epidemics are modeled. The CDC even has a simple tutorial for creating them: https://www.cdc.gov/training/quicklearns/createepi/index.htm...
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Re:Forecasting s-curves is hard by nl on Monday April 20, 2020 @10:20AM (#22924001)
No.

An epi curve is created from observations and shows new infections per day.

The Gompertz function is a mathematical formula and can be used to estimate total infections up to a date.

However, if you take the epi curve and plot the aggregate number of infections you'll find a curve that the Gompertz function approximates quite well.

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