So it's not implausible that there's a future world here where DX13 or DX14 use SPIR-V instead of DXIL. After all this makes AMD, Intel, and Nvidia's driver teams happier. Game devs also are happier as then they can ship a single precompiled shader on all platforms - PC & consoles. Microsoft's strong position with DirectX doesn't come from DXIL, but instead from making game developers happy, so SPIR-V's future could easily be very bright.
And then if games are using SPIR-V for compute (and they already use GPU compute for various things), then Nvidia is absolutely going to optimize the ever leaving snot out of it. Likely even more than they do for CUDA, as gaming is by far Nvidia's largest source of revenue: https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc_financials/quarter...
Microsoft only open sourced the DXC compiler and approved their changes.
To see how much NVidia cares for SPIR-V, check the amount of Vulkan/OpenGL talks at GTC 2020 versus CUDA and related tooling.
Apparently OctaneRender decided to move away from their Vulkan prototype and just adopt Optix 7 instead.
Kind of bums me out Apple decided to double down on Metal and not just go with Vulkan directly, but MoltenVK is probably fine to deal with that. I would have really like to see all other platforms effectively unite behind a DirectX alternative finally.