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Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by pcwalton on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:21PM (#22634395)
"Letting the virus infect everyone" at a 1% death rate means 3 million deaths in the US, right up there with the worst catastrophes of the 20th century. You can change the death rate and projections of number infected needed to get herd immunity and move that number around, of course, but not enough to change the overall moral calculus.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by edgefield0 on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:24PM (#22634429)
1% death rate assumes reasonable medical care. If you let everyone get infected, you'll have people dying on the streets. I bet this % jumps to 5% or more. We'd easily see 15m+ deaths.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by tempestn on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:27PM (#22634456)
Exactly. Death rate in Italy is over 5% I believe. Allowing it to spread unchecked would be an unmitigated catastrophe, and the deaths certainly wouldn't be limited to the elderly. What we need to do is massively expand testing so that the lockdowns and distancing measures can be ended without allowing the virus to go back to spreading through the community.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by jacobolus on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:35PM (#22634552)
Keep in mind, the number you are talking about is known deaths / known cases.

Neither of these is a final or accurate number: many of the current cases will progress to death, and many who have been (or are) infected have not been tested (e.g. because they were asymptomatic or had only minor symptoms).

Here’s a more careful attempt to determine the numbers for Wuhan (published today) which results in numbers substantially lower (though still scary) than those suggested by the WHO previously https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by tempestn on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:56PM (#22634708)
For sure, to have an accurate number you need to wait until all cases resolved AND you need to have thorough testing to know what the total number of cases were. Good to see that it may not have been quite as bad as thought in Wuhan. That said, they did enact pretty strict quarantine measures there and massively surged hospital capacity, so it's not like that number represents total healthcare collapse either. Regardless, to me it seems to great to just say it's outweighed by the costs of control measures, especially since there is another path to take.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by twblalock on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:26PM (#22634448)
That seems far worse than any statistics reported so far. What is the basis for that number?
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by kingbirdy on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:46AM (#22634980)
Italy's current mortality rate is 8% (3,405 deaths, 41,035 confirmed cases). Of course their lack of testing is probably influencing the numbers somewhat, but still.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-virus-death-toll-on-the-...

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by sershe on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:21AM (#22635699)
According to a recent study from Columbia University up to 86% cases are undetected based on pre-lockdown Chinese data. That would bring this number down to ~1.1%. That is in the oldest-skewing population out there, barely any containment (assuming 14 days infection to death), and with overwhelmed healthcare capacity. Frankly I didn't even expect it to be this low, I thought it was supposed to be closer to 2.5-3% after healthcare collapse and 0.5% before.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by littlestymaar on Monday March 23, 2020 @04:18PM (#22668286)
Please be careful with every study you read or be talked about in the news: there's over one thousand studies on Covid19 so far, with a big discrepancy in results. Cherry-picking the one we want to hear is pretty dangerous if it gives us a false sense of security.

For the record, on the Diamond Princess (with everybody tested) the number of asymptomatic case was 60% with more than 1% death rate with Japanese healthcare (not overloaded). You can't generalize on these figures either for many reasons but thats's still a strong warning.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by swat535 on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:54PM (#22639104)
Well, tbh, to beat the WW2 death count, you'd have to infect 8.5B people
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by MiroF on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:27PM (#22634455)
There is no scenario in which we see 15 million deaths. I would like to see a single real academic you can find saying anything like that.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by PopeDotNinja on Friday March 20, 2020 @02:59AM (#22635596)
Have a calculator?

# Italian deaths / Italian cases = percentage dead [1]

2_978 / 35_713 = 0.0833870019

# USA population * percentage dead = USA death scenario [2]

329_414_824 * 0.0833870019 = 27_468_914

It's prob not gonna get that bad, but Italy didn't see a scenario where people would die at a rate over 8%. So there's a scenario. Don't panic, but also don't dismiss scenarios you'd rather not believe. Americans who get laid off lose access to cheap healthcare, and many as already don't have it. Lack of healthcare doesn't sound like a great a situation.

[1] Source: Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports # 59 for March 19

[2] https://www.census.gov/popclock/

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by hilbertseries on Friday March 20, 2020 @04:03AM (#22635873)
That's confirmed cases. I doubt Italy is testing many people with mild symptoms, just like the US is also not testing many people with mild symptoms.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by standardUser on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:25AM (#22635720)
We don't really know the death rate in Italy. We shouldn't get too deep in to back-of-napkin math when the data changes every day.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by MikeAmelung on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:08AM (#22635637)
So the 24% of the US population aged 0-18 is just as likely to die as the "confirmed" cases of COVID-19 in Italy? If anyone does anything but dismiss this stupid ass math, they should panic.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by jacobolus on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:40PM (#22634585)
15 million in the US seems like a big stretch. But more than a million is plausible if no action is taken and people go about their everyday lives as usual.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by MiroF on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:43PM (#22634608)
Agreed, and as many as 2.2 million.

No need to make already awful numbers into lies by multiplying by 7.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by tempestn on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:07AM (#22634771)
Personally I think 2.2 million is extremely optimistic if we're talking about a worst case where no one reacts to mitigate the spread. But ultimately it seems like we agree that it would be really bad, whether it's 2M bad or 10M bad, so no need to argue about it really.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by tempestn on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:28PM (#22634466)
Agreed, because that's unthinkable, so lockdowns would be enacted instead. Without any measures taken to limit spread though, that would be the expected result.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by MiroF on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:29PM (#22634480)
Again, based on what? I have seen nowhere near that level of estimate assuming peak hospital overload and unmitigated spread.

Stats from Italy are going to be heavily skewed towards fatalities for a number of reasons that have been documented by epidemiologists.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by tempestn on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:31PM (#22634503)
Based on the death rates in Wuhan and in Italy where this actually happened.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by olalonde on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:36PM (#22634557)
Careful with those death rates, my guess is that they likely exclude a ton of mildly or asymptomatic patients who never got tested (skewing the death rate upwards).
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by tempestn on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:49PM (#22634659)
Sure. And yes, Italy's population is more elderly as well. So I agree it's possible the death rate will be less than 5%. (Although I believe they're currently at ~8%, so we don't know that.) But those are the closest parallels we've seen so far as to what happens when a modern heathcare system gets overwhelmed by this, so they're the best estimates we have to work from.

And regardless, it would be very, very bad. If it's only 5M people instead of 15M, that's still catastrophic. Also while the hospitals are completely overwhelmed with COVID-19, people will die of other things that would normally be survivable.

And finally, we have an alternative: keep employing distancing and, where necessary, lockdown measures while scaling up testing. These lockdowns will get the cases under control, but they would flare back up as soon as they're ended. However, with the expanded testing, we can instead perform sufficient testing across the entire population to catch outbreaks before they start. With sufficient testing, things can go back to normal while remaining confident that we're not spreading the virus undetected and seeding a new outbreak. It needs to be orders of magnitude more than we have now, but it's entirely possible.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by MiroF on Friday March 20, 2020 @10:09AM (#22637607)
Surprised that I ended up in the red on that comment, yet not a single person has given me a paper where anyone says that 15 million is a possible worst case US death toll.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by pmoleri on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:27PM (#22634464)
If you let it go wild is not gonna be a 1% death rate, health care collapses and it suddenly jumps to 5% or higher. With the health system collapsed deaths are not only about COVID-19, but everything else that depends on health care.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by surewhynat on Friday March 20, 2020 @10:00AM (#22637542)
We're also betting on it not having any mutations .. the more people it sees, the more paths it can take as it replicates..
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by onlyrealcuzzo on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:34PM (#22634543)
I think people are oblivious to some obvious ways our system operates.

Wealthy people have power.

It takes time to accrue wealth, most wealthy people are old.

Coronavirus kills 10% of 80+, and 5% of all 65+.

Old people vote.

If the hospital systems are overwhelmed because we don't flatten the curve, those percentages likely double or triple.

Look at how much we've learned about treating this virus in the 3-ish months we've been paying it the attention it deserves. If we slow it for another month, maybe these percentages could be cut in half.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by whb07 on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:34PM (#22634537)
Except it’s significantly less than 1%.

You should find the actuarial tables and life expectancies for an 80 year old. It ain’t sunshine and rainbows.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by Supermancho on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:35PM (#22634546)
Permanent respiratory damage in ~2% of survivors is catastrophic as well.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by standardUser on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:27AM (#22635729)
Is there data to back this up? It would be very early to make specific declarations of the after effects of an illness that sprang in to existence 3 months ago.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by maigret on Friday March 20, 2020 @05:19AM (#22636182)
I would expect doctors are able to make kinda accurate diagnostics on damaged lungs and have already lots of data on recovery prospects. Might not be 1% exact, but they are probably not on the wrong side either.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by chourobin on Friday March 20, 2020 @09:46AM (#22637443)
The death rate is probably a lot lower given all the under tested asymptomatic infections.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by dntbnmpls on Friday March 20, 2020 @01:33AM (#22635214)
> "Letting the virus infect everyone" at a 1% death rate means 3 million deaths in the US, right up there with the worst catastrophes of the 20th century

Every year nearly 3 million people die in the US already.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Are you saying we experience the worst catastrophe year in and year out?

The hyperbole and exaggerated fearmongering over coronavirus is something to keep an eye out for. Also, if everyone gets infected, it likely means that the virus is far less deadly than you assume and the death rate is far lower than 1%. Think about it rather than cherrypicking data to push an agenda.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by syspec on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:23AM (#22635709)
This is in addition to that, not either or
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by standardUser on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:28AM (#22635732)
There would be significant overlap.