California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by PopeDotNinja on Friday March 20, 2020 @02:59AM (#22635596)

Have a calculator?

# Italian deaths / Italian cases = percentage dead [1]

2_978 / 35_713 = 0.0833870019

# USA population * percentage dead = USA death scenario [2]

329_414_824 * 0.0833870019 = 27_468_914

It's prob not gonna get that bad, but Italy didn't see a scenario where people would die at a rate over 8%. So there's a scenario. Don't panic, but also don't dismiss scenarios you'd rather not believe. Americans who get laid off lose access to cheap healthcare, and many as already don't have it. Lack of healthcare doesn't sound like a great a situation.

[1] Source: Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports # 59 for March 19

[2] https://www.census.gov/popclock/

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Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by hilbertseries on Friday March 20, 2020 @04:03AM (#22635873)

That's confirmed cases. I doubt Italy is testing many people with mild symptoms, just like the US is also not testing many people with mild symptoms.

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Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by standardUser on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:25AM (#22635720)

We don't really know the death rate in Italy. We shouldn't get too deep in to back-of-napkin math when the data changes every day.

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Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by MikeAmelung on Friday March 20, 2020 @03:08AM (#22635637)

So the 24% of the US population aged 0-18 is just as likely to die as the "confirmed" cases of COVID-19 in Italy? If anyone does anything but dismiss this stupid ass math, they should panic.

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