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Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by mbesto on Friday January 17, 2020 @04:54PM (#22079855)
FYI -

Austin is as blue as they come (and way less of the neoliberalism you see in SV). Houston from what I can tell has become much more liberal too (partly because a large influx of Katrina refugees).

Hot take - with all of the migration to Texas, this state will be blue in the next 10 years.

The only "conservative" things you find in those areas is (1) big trucks (2) guns (3) tobacco (4) sports. Not much different than what you might see in rural CA.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by GhettoChild on Friday January 17, 2020 @05:59PM (#22080501)
I actually used to live in rural California and now live in Texas and I found Rural Californians to be MUCH more conservative than your average Texan just that Texans love to over compensate a lot.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by gen220 on Friday January 17, 2020 @08:51PM (#22081617)
Grew up in California, know a bunch of people from Texas.

I think even suburban California culture is much more similar to Texas culture than it is to SV culture.

It makes sense. There’s a lot of shared history: Central American cultural influence/heritage, long history of intense and local economic booms and busts (Oil in SoCal and Texas, gold in NorCal), fiercely independent political history. It’s produced an interesting mix of conservative and progressive ideas. The only thing that California has that’s unique on top of that base mindset is environmental conservatism; because California is jaw droppingly gorgeous and Texas isn’t.

Totally agree with the point others have made, that Texas is a lot more blue than its gerrymandered districts let on. Similarly, California is much more “red” outside of the urban bubbles. They’ve a lot more in common than cultural memes would lead you to believe.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by enad on Friday January 17, 2020 @11:43PM (#22082327)
I disagree.

I grew up and lived as an adult in central and rural California (and the Bay Area) before moving to Texas.

I thought I was pretty conservative, like many in rural California.

But coming to Texas it was shocking how liberal I was. Not in anything specific, but in the overall. Texans and California’s government and voter just don’t even think about the same kinds of things. What is perfectly reasonable in California is completely foreign in Texas and vice versa.

The big example: the taxpayer. In California I never thought about them. Who’s going to pay for this great new law or public policy? In California we never ask. In Texas, everyone knows: the taxpayer.

No conservative one in Texas is going to support a law, no matter how good, that the taxpayer isn’t going to want to pay for.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by standardUser on Friday January 17, 2020 @08:02PM (#22081382)
My takeaway from a visit to Austin a few years ago: "Everything seems so liberal, except for all of these massive pickup trucks that keep trying to run me over!"
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by kelnos on Friday January 17, 2020 @08:47PM (#22081591)
To be fair, in CA it's massive SUVs that keep trying to run me over.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by mbesto on Saturday January 18, 2020 @06:07PM (#22088023)
Or Prius's.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by kelnos on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @10:53PM (#22124689)
The Priuses are smaller, but are so quiet that they sneak up on you... and then it's too late ;)
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by threatofrain on Friday January 17, 2020 @08:16PM (#22081449)
If American conservatives would give up some of the cultural items out of a framework of secularism they would win back positions at every level in a landslide.

Somewhere issues of how government should be run, how taxes should work, were also tied to issues like abortion and gay marriage.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by rayiner on Friday January 17, 2020 @05:17PM (#22080088)
> Hot take - with all of the migration to Texas, this state will be blue in the next 10 years.

And will have all the problems of California, New York, etc. in another 10-20 years after that.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by d1zzy on Friday January 17, 2020 @06:34PM (#22080823)
As long as no Prop 13 gets voted in it should be much better than California.

Everyone complaining about policies in California make it sound like Texas is perfect. I'm pretty sure it could use a lot of improvements on its policies. There are some large factors that have had a disproportionate effect on the housing problems California faces and one of those is Prop 13 so it is much better to focus on avoiding repeating those mistakes than making general blanket statements.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by xyzzyz on Friday January 17, 2020 @06:43PM (#22080894)
Prop 13 does produce some distortion in the market, but much bigger problem is the sheer inability to build anything. If California had similar zoning and building rules as Texas, Prop 13 would not really be relevant, since houses would not be appreciating in value fast enough for Prop 13 to make any difference.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by andrewprock on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:14PM (#22081104)
Prop 13 reduces the supply of housing massively. The carrying cost for any property that was bought more than 20 years ago is negligible. This reduces the incentive to sell when you no longer need the property. This in turn raises prices by reducing supply. This likewise reduces the incentive to sell. As prices go up, the incentive to allow new construction also goes down.

Prop 13 has effectively created a vicious cycle of escalating property values.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by xyzzyz on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:30PM (#22081208)
Prop 13 has effectively created a vicious cycle of escalating property values.

Sure, but without any numbers, this is simply a just-so story. House prices in Seattle metro have shot through the roof in past 5-6 years, despite Seattle not having Prop 13 law. If house prices can demonstrably go up a lot in a place with no Prop 13-like law, but otherwise rather similar to California when it comes to attitudes towards what kind of houses are allowed to be built, it stands to reason that Prop 13 is unlikely to be main factor in dire California's housing situation.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by harryh on Friday January 17, 2020 @08:50PM (#22081604)
Seattle has certainly had historical NIMBY problems, but is finally undergoing a building boom and it's having a noticeable effect on prices.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-re...

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by andrewprock on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:40PM (#22081266)
I don't know what you mean by a "just-so" story. Can you expand on that?
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by xyzzyz on Friday January 17, 2020 @08:49PM (#22081599)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-so_story

Humans are really good at crafting narratives explaining complex and uncertain reality. However, just because something sounds superficialy plausible, doesn't mean it is true: it is usually easy to craft an alternative theory, just as plausible as the one at hand.

For example, the narrative of Prop 13 being the root of all California's housing problem very much depends on exactly how much it affects the decision making. It could be a lot, it could be a little, but without knowing exactly (or at least approximately), we're simply in the dark. Maybe it's not Prop 13, but environmental activists running amok? Maybe it's a cartel in the construction industry colluding to keep the construction prices up? Without putting numbers on these, you can't tell which of these has significant impact, and which is irrelevant.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by andrewprock on Friday January 17, 2020 @11:56PM (#22082381)
The issue has been studied extensively. There is plenty of stuff available out there if you go look.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by xyzzyz on Saturday January 18, 2020 @01:23AM (#22082737)
Yes, and I haven’t seen anything suggesting that it’s Prop 13 that’s responsible for majority of the premium in California’s housing costs compared to other states. It’s not nothing, but it pales in comparison to zoning regulations and requirements for environmental traffic etc impact studies that drag on and on.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by asdff on Saturday January 18, 2020 @02:57AM (#22083079)
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by xyzzyz on Saturday January 18, 2020 @11:07AM (#22085129)
Indeed. 15% is not nothing, but if house prices in California went down by as much, they wouldnt suddenly become affordable.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by d1zzy on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:27PM (#22081183)
Agreed but one of the major reasons why residents are opposed to building/zoning residential IS a natural result of Prop 13. It's impressive how much of the past/current problems California is facing can be traced back to Prop 13.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by xyzzyz on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:32PM (#22081217)
Agreed but one of the major reasons why residents are opposed to building/zoning residential IS a natural result of Prop 13.

I live in Seattle, where the attitudes of residents and attitude to building are similar, but we have no Prop 13. How is it possible?

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by asdff on Saturday January 18, 2020 @02:49AM (#22083048)
You still get the benefits of increased property values due to strangling supply in the face of demand. Only with prop 13 you stand to net even more money, and if your dad gave you the house he bought in '70 you are taxed like you have a little shitty 20k house in boise.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by andrewprock on Friday January 17, 2020 @07:56PM (#22081363)
Most variations of NIMBY-ism arise from a desire to preserve the status quo. That's exactly the kind of rationale that went into enacting Prop 13. The more valuable the status quo is, the more people will fight to maintain it.

Even if there is a bright future ahead, people will limit change. This is in large part because the benefits and costs of change are not uniformly distributed, and when people have a valuable status quo, change represents significant risk.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by dodobirdlord on Saturday January 18, 2020 @03:37AM (#22083212)
The attitudes may be in the same direction, but they are far less extreme and taken far less seriously by others. People complain but at the end of the day buildings actually get built in Seattle.
Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by kelnos on Friday January 17, 2020 @08:46PM (#22081583)
It would require some pretty big shifts in Texas, though. Since most revenue comes from property taxes, the government has an incentive not only to avoid things like Prop 13, but to also encourage building.

Sure, Texas could start imposing an income tax, and raise the sales tax rate, but that would be a huge political hurdle to jump in order to be able to enact CA's terrible housing policies.

Re:Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? by mbesto on Friday January 17, 2020 @06:49PM (#22080943)
Exactly.

EDIT - To be fair. Many of the geographical issues with Chicago, LA, SF and NYC are about being land/water locked on an adjacent side(s). Less of an issue in TX.