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Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by haecceity on Friday January 03, 2020 @12:54AM (#21943626)
> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries.

Ya let's blame it all on other people.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by FabHK on Friday January 03, 2020 @06:56AM (#21945156)
Indeed. Which one country just left the Paris Agreement? Hint: Not China or 3rd world countries.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by Typhon on Friday January 03, 2020 @08:08AM (#21945522)
The big difference between the American attitude and the Chinese attitude towards ecology is this :

The Americans loudly refuse to do anything, loudly deny that there's a problem, and loudly proclaim their hatred of ecology.

The Chinese say yes to everything but they have absolutely no intention of actually doing anything, they just lie.

Check this out : https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/23/china-factories-...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/04/china-underrep...

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by oefrha on Friday January 03, 2020 @11:05AM (#21947059)
According to Climate Action Tracker, https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/current-pol...

> This means that according to our assessment, China will meet its 2020 pledge and its NDC targets, but still be above current emissions levels. China’s chief climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, has expressed the opinion that China could meet its 2030 peaking targets early, reflecting the conclusions of other studies (Green and Stern, 2017; Xu, Stanway and Daly, 2018; Gallagher et al., 2019b; Wang et al., 2019). CAT analysis confirms that, based on current GDP projections, China is indeed likely to meet the carbon intensity target of its 2030 pledge early.

So the TL;DR is China is likely to meet its pledges but the pledges themselves are pretty weak — rated “highly insufficient” and only consistent with a 4 degrees warming limit.

That’s inconsistent with your “say yes to everything but ... just lie” assessment. It appears they don’t say yes to everything (hence the weak pledge) but will hit the promised target.

Your links don’t support your point either. The first link doesn’t pinpoint the cause (could be a lapse in enforcement) and the second link is about a revision in official figures; Guardian’s reporting is based on a NYT article with a more neutral tone, but even the Guardian article with its loaded title (surprise surprise) didn’t call it lying.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by NotSammyHagar on Saturday January 04, 2020 @04:58AM (#21953973)
The leaders of america do that, at least half the people in the country want to do something. And the leader of the us will eventually change and we'll get a new goal. Then we'll be like china though because the republicans/oil industry will sue to block changes.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by brutt on Friday January 03, 2020 @09:46AM (#21946266)
From result standpoint, it's small difference, not a big one.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by majewsky on Friday January 03, 2020 @07:02AM (#21945180)
The Paris Agreement is just a piece of paper. If we go by the "initiative" measure of GGP, the leadership of most countries doesn't display a sufficient amount of it.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by WhompingWindows on Friday January 03, 2020 @01:40PM (#21948910)
He said "mostly" because of, not totally due to. Furthermore, look at US emissions...they are flat or declining over time, and will continue to slowly decline. So, we're closer to hitting our future Paris goals than China, whose emissions are going to continue to rise quickly due to increased oil use, LNG, and a LOT of coal use for at least 20 years to come.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by mrarjen on Friday January 03, 2020 @04:38AM (#21944540)
Also lack of initiative by many 1st world countries, hopefully there will be plenty of new technologies developed in the coming years that reduce or capture carbon.

But with current developments this will be far too little too late and it will be a rough ride forward.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by akuji1993 on Friday January 03, 2020 @04:46AM (#21944566)
A technology that helps reduce and capture carbon? You mean trees? Because we already have them for a few million years.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by droithomme on Friday January 03, 2020 @01:03AM (#21943660)
> let's blame it all on other people

Unfortunately we can't blame it on ourselves as our carbon emissions, assuming it's even relevant, have decreased massively compared to predictions.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by jlarocco on Friday January 03, 2020 @01:39AM (#21943815)
You've got to be kidding...

United States per-capita CO2 emmisions are 17.5 tons per year vs China's 6.18, and that's not even taking into account the fact that China emits a lot of CO2 producing cheap products to sell to the US.

https://cotap.org/per-capita-carbon-co2-emissions-by-country...

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by bumby on Friday January 03, 2020 @09:09AM (#21945934)
I think a relevant point may also be the rate of increase. The numbers I saw show that the US per capita emissions actually trending down and China was still increasing.

I’m not trying to absolve the US here just noting that rate of increase/decrease matters in addition to per capita and absolute values

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC

https://www.theguardian.com/environment

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by azinman2 on Friday January 03, 2020 @02:22AM (#21943954)
I’m not arguing against US CO2, but the likelihood of those numbers for China being anywhere near accurate is small.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by jlarocco on Saturday January 04, 2020 @10:46AM (#21955465)
I don't think the numbers don't come from China, they're measured by satelites.

https://www.livescience.com/49196-nasa-satellite-oco2-carbon...

China shows up very red, but they have 5x the people living in a much smaller area.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by onion2k on Friday January 03, 2020 @03:09AM (#21944137)
Likewise for the US.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by alxlaz on Friday January 03, 2020 @03:36AM (#21944257)
Why? They are supported by pretty much every source out there. See e.g. EDGAR ( https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d0... ), or this slightly older data set from the World Bank: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=... .

I'm not sure why you'd expect it to be otherwise. This is a per-capita figure, and carbon emissions are strongly correlated with income and purchasing power. CO2 emissions aren't driven by consumer goods production alone.

There's an adjusted metric that puts things into an even better perspective: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emis... .

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by azinman2 on Friday January 03, 2020 @04:58AM (#21944608)
So that last link has numbers drastically different from the GP’s data, and it says that it comes simply from fossil fuel combustion and cement — not population. Population is also not a great metric; the types of power plants, typical personal transportation usages, and transport of everyday items like food will vary greatly. These are also all very dynamic.

The reality is all these data sources will he estimates. Estimates can be severely wrong — they can be produced by local governments with incentives to lie, or estimated by outside observers with poor actual knowledge. China has had a long history of empirical lying in their economic data locally due to internal party targets, for example. I see no reason for them to give accurate numbers to the UN/external world, where as with the US there’s enough decentralization and public data that there’s a better chance of being more accurate (but still probably quite off).

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by alxlaz on Friday January 03, 2020 @09:33AM (#21946145)
Of course they're estimates, you can't exactly plug a meter on every exhaust pipe in the country and take a reading every couple of days. And of course the methodology varies from one study to another. But modern estimates do account for things like types of power plants, typical personal (and public, and business/industrial) transportation usages etc.. It's not like the whole scientific world waited for us to discuss this on HN before figuring out that maybe 10 people who go to work by bike isn't quite the same as 10 people who drive a jeep to work.

There is less data available for China and therefore the estimates are likely wrong by a higher margin than the estimates for the US. But the figures do very much fit the demographics, economy and geography of China so I doubt that the margin is that high.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by SmellyGeekBoy on Friday January 03, 2020 @05:24AM (#21944715)
If only there were some kind of device we could launch into space, fly over China and see for ourselves.

Wait... https://co2.jpl.nasa.gov/

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by azinman2 on Friday January 03, 2020 @06:06PM (#21951293)
And what does it show? I just see giant data sets.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by onion2k on Friday January 03, 2020 @06:25AM (#21944986)
Why?

When azinman2 claimed the reported COTAP numbers for China are probably wrong I was saying the same is true for the US for exactly the same reasons - measuring emissions on a national scale is hard, there are good reasons not to believe any self-reported data that business relies on, and frankly America has worse climate emissions policies than China at the moment.

I'm not suggesting that other agencies that independently measure emissions are wrong. It is possible to measure emissions remotely (eg the satellite that SmellyGeekBoy linked to), and that provides proper unbiased data.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by azangru on Friday January 03, 2020 @08:12AM (#21945542)
> United States per-capita CO2 emmisions are 17.5 tons per year vs China's 6.18

Does this mean we need to multiply China's values by 4.2 (1386 mln Chinese vs 327 mln Americans) to account for all those capitas? ;-)

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by 0xcafecafe on Friday January 03, 2020 @08:57AM (#21945825)
Per capita is the only metric that makes sense for carbon emissions since the effects are not going to be confined to artificial nation boundaries. So no, no need to multiply anything.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by haecceity on Friday January 03, 2020 @01:13AM (#21943708)
Companies in developed countries have been exporting emissions to developing countries. Those companies are profiting while people like you and I point fingers at each other. Pretty funny. Anyway if you look at the emission metrics per capita it's still developed countries at the top.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by fierarul on Friday January 03, 2020 @06:13AM (#21944940)
... but if developed countries are asking developing countries to reduce their emissions it means they are implicitly asking for a price raise too, no? So, why not do that?
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by haecceity on Friday January 03, 2020 @06:35AM (#21945032)
Not everyone can afford the price raise. Firms in developed countries would be hurt if consumption decreases due to the price raise so who’s going to support this policy?
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by fierarul on Friday January 03, 2020 @01:51PM (#21949028)
So could this really lead to a global depression? I doubt it.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by haecceity on Saturday January 04, 2020 @01:08AM (#21953203)
Not saying it could. I'm just discussing the incentives involved.