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Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by nostromo on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @02:11PM (#20759791)
This isn't that dissimilar from lots of industries.

Every airline that takes a loan to buy a plane is banking on future demand for air travel, for example.

Or take Amazon Web Services, which is building data centers to lease out on a short term basis.

Yes, there are tremendous risks involved, depending on the lease terms. But it's not at all unusual.

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by CPLX on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @02:26PM (#20759998)
Investing in airlines is the worst idea in history, so perhaps that analogy is sound.

The Amazon example is less relevant on that specific point as AWS owns and operates its own equipment.

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by strange_quark on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @02:26PM (#20759986)
It is dissimilar though. In the examples you gave, the airline or Amazon are taking on debt to purchase a plane or a bunch of servers themselves, so if the demand decreases in the future, they can sell off those assets. They would probably incur a loss, but at least they could recoup some of their investment. WeWork on the other hand is not a landlord and does not own anything other than the furniture in the offices. If (when) the market turns down, they're going to have a really hard time unloading those liabilities because who's going to want to pick up their lease?
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by xyzzyz on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @07:48PM (#20763186)
If (when) the market turns down, they're going to have a really hard time unloading those liabilities because who's going to want to pick up their lease?

I don't see why it would be any harder than selling off a plane in case of market downturn. Both are hard, and in both cases the owners of the asset (whether it's a lease or a plane) will likely incur a loss, so I don't really see any difference here at all.

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by megaremote on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @07:24PM (#20763006)
Whose going to want to rent a plane?

You are really pushing this point hard, when it does not fit.

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by goatinaboat on Thursday August 22, 2019 @12:38AM (#20764679)
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by morpheuskafka on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @08:33PM (#20763482)
AWS is really a good comparison. It turned buying a server and getting an annual colo lease into "per-second" billing, and WeWork offers per-day pricing for office real estate instead of an annual lease.
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by hn_throwaway_99 on Thursday August 22, 2019 @12:14AM (#20764570)
Except AWS does a whole lot more than just let you rent generic EC2 instances by the hour. They have sooo, sooo, sooo many custom services that their lock-in is huge. It would be extremely painful for any sizable customer on AWS to switch (my previous comment on the subject: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20339381).

No such lock-in exists with WeWork. In fact the entire reason for WeWork's existence is it doesn't have lock-in.

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by icelancer on Thursday August 22, 2019 @02:22AM (#20765192)
>> No such lock-in exists with WeWork. In fact the entire reason for WeWork's existence is it doesn't have lock-in.

This isn't true for their expanding customer base: Businesses who are paying for blocks of co-working memberships to expand through services rather than finding new leases themselves. There is significant lock-in when this occurs, as people may move close to those WeWork locations, arrange their life around it, etc.

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by mtremsal on Friday August 23, 2019 @06:43AM (#20776169)
That's also my understanding of their pitch; have we seen any evidence it's actually happening?
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by icelancer on Saturday August 24, 2019 @08:50PM (#20790660)
Anecdotally in Seattle it is absolutely happening. My small business is one of many that is expanding into these short-term spaces due to flexibility. Who knows if it's actually working well, but I've seen many "sub-offices" at the co-working space where I lease two desks for my employees.
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by crummy on Thursday August 22, 2019 @12:16AM (#20764576)
Stratechery digs more into this comparison, which really helped me understand the value of WeWork.

https://stratechery.com/2019/the-wework-ipo/

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by mattrp on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @10:27PM (#20764069)
That’s the aws of 2008. If you think that’s still what they do I would suggest revisiting your view. It’s not a very good comparison. I’d prefer to think of wework in the same ways that some might of thought of Enron.
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by munk-a on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @02:21PM (#20759931)
I don't really buy that, WeWork is benefiting off of a demand that is constantly shifting hands - people who are using the workspace should be using it temporarily - maybe they're a contractor on sabbatical, maybe they're starting a company and don't have the momentum and size to consider a lease... but those needs will change. Airlines live an entirely different business, nobody but the super ridiculously rich will ever own their own plane - and AWS benefits from economy of scale, they can deliver computational power below the cost of inhousing the ops cost in all but the most extreme circumstances, running a room full of servers has a lot of costs that don't scale down gracefully.

WeWork might be able to survive long term on two factors

1. Prestige & Environs - working in this sort of shared space may be viewed as luxurious in the long term due to rubbing elbows with other well-to-do folks, sorta like going to the opera.

2. Reliability of cost - Owning a condo is a strictly better decision than renting an apartment, but there are spikes in costs when appliances break down and building work needs to be done... though I think to properly reap the benefit of this WeWork needs to be and remain extremely proactive in maintenance, if some vulture capitalists get into the decision making process and let maintenance slip for a bit it'll erase all of this value by forcing the cost (in terms of inconvenience and unavailability) onto the consumer - it's possible this could also be lost if they fail to keep a nice margin of capacity above usage... again, as soon as someone wants to go to work and is unable to secure the space and is forced to either rent or lease conventional office space their competitive edge will dissolve.

I am highly skeptical of the long term prospects if WeWork fails to maintain their prestige and banking your company on prestige is an inherently risky approach IMO.

Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by sharadov on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @02:59PM (#20760389)
Your assessment of environs is right, they bought Meetup.com for that.
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by mattrp on Wednesday August 21, 2019 @10:28PM (#20764076)
Does meetup have a revenue model?
Re:WeWork Isn’t a Tech Company by sharadov on Thursday August 22, 2019 @10:08PM (#20774031)