This is a response to the NASA NextStep request for proposals for a Lunar lander targeting a 2024 mission. It’s not a clean sheet architecture like Starship.

https://www.nasa.gov/nextstep/humanlander2

I’m glad to see a different approach. SpaceX has the “outrageously audacious” space well covered. It’s good to have a competitor working on something more incremental in case it turns out that the giant leap isn’t viable.

Blue Origin is somewhat like the Waymo of space tech. They'll continue plodding methodically, indefinitely. And you can bet their safety/reliability record will be nigh near perfect.

Yes, Waymo is the market leader in self-driving technology (unlike Blue Origin). And there's currently no analogue to SpaceX in the self-driving car market. The incredible, complementary leadership duo that Musk and Shotwell present is unparalleled in both markets.

>And there's currently no analogue to SpaceX in the self-driving car market.

Isn't... Tesla analogous to SpaceX in the self-driving car market?

Nope.

SpaceX has a working product that is eating its competitors' lunch (from a nothing company to having almost half the launch market within 10 years).

Tesla doesn't have a self-driving product that works, just standard assisted-driving tech that every other car company already sells, plus dangerously overpromising marketing.

Tesla self-driving is mostly just ADAS + marketing. I'd be very careful to assume anything higher than SAE level 2 in real-life scenarios that are outside of their testing grounds.

Some people paid with their lives for this assumption.

Tesla is too unstable to compare it with SpaceX I think.

"And you can bet their safety/reliability record will be nigh near perfect."

Why do you believe this to be the case?

I think people believe Blue's much slower approach to space is because of more testing and planning. I am a skeptical person and believe you can learn much more by doing. As long as missions are unmanned then frankly why not take tons of risks and learn and grow lots faster. The approach Blue is taking feels like it should have diminishing returns in regards to safety and maybe even worse safety as the longer timelines may not play well with actual clearer and better thinking.

Wait, does Waymo have paying customers?

Their fleet size is way smaller than Tesla.

They're the leader in features for sure, but that's not what market leader means I don't think.

Yes, Waymo has paying customers that ride in cars that have demonstrated the capability to navigate populated city streets without a driver. I think calling Waymo the market leader is a fair assessment.

Oh as opposed to Elon Musk who had vertical landing nailed before they went out courageously and told the word that they are doing it.

Retropropulsive landing was the next step for SpaceX. The Moon is two or three or four steps down the line for Blue Origin.

>> I'm all for anything that gets us back to the Moon, but this clearly feels underwhelming versus Starship.

Rovers are incredibly underwhelming compared to what was done 50 years ago. Starship will get us back there, but anything short of a base where people can stay a while will not really be new.

You mean the grain silo that blew over?