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Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by baby on Thursday April 04, 2019 @10:42AM (#19572857)
These kind of posts are good publicity right? I don't see any other car company we follow so closely on the market. Tesla is the only name I can see come up again and again here, and guess what, most people on HN are the actual population that is buying teslas.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by taytus on Thursday April 04, 2019 @10:56AM (#19573046)
I'm not so sure about that. You may think Elon Musk is a genius or mega charismatic guy.

I see a lot of value on what Musk is trying to achieve, but I think he would have way more credibility if he just stopped overpromising and under delivering.

I'm starting to believe people post more and more about Tesla because of that.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by jfoster on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:49PM (#19574432)
The only way to achieve as much as he does is by setting goals that you don't really know you can meet. If you only set goals you know you can meet, you won't be ambitious enough to be Elon Musk.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by xkjkls on Thursday April 04, 2019 @05:18PM (#19577220)
It is basically the most controversial stock on Wall Street. There are either people who think this is going to one day be a $1 trillion company or believe this company is quickly going bankrupt. It is one of the greatest Rorschach tests I've ever seen.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by notahacker on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:21AM (#19573349)
Other car companies aren't VC-funded California-based startups run by maverick tech billionaires who want to go to the moon. And I can't imagine anyone on here is either unaware of Tesla and its selling points or more likely to buy one after reading a story about Tesla having delivery issues.

Tesla gets just as many posts and upvotes when it has actual good news.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by saiya-jin on Thursday April 04, 2019 @10:53AM (#19573018)
> most people on HN are the actual population that is buying teslas

You overestimate how many people here are willing to shell out those amounts of money for vehicle, and how practical it actually is. Yes, it is a future and whatnot and a lot of cool tech.

But for say 20k euro I can have 5 year old BMW 3-er wagon. Yes, not new car, but I get 95% of the car for 1/3-1/4 of the cost. Much better fun to drive (I care much more about handling/cornering than 0-60 numbers), much more practical. I can travel 1500km in a single push with 5-10 minute breaks just to refill/stretch - done it quite a few times, not the main use by any means, but car unable to do this reasonably is at the end useless to me.

I might be outlier, but even in uber-rich place like Switzerland, Tesla is a rare sight. They are much common where government aggressively subsidizes specifically this type of vehicle.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by fetus8 on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:29AM (#19573452)
I think you're underestimating how much people are willing to spend on an EV, especially a Tesla. I work in Boulder, and Teslas are literally every where. When the Model 3 deliveries started happening, our parking lot at work was invaded with the navy blue models.

EVs have become quite commonplace all over the Front Range of CO, even in the less rich places. Teslas, Bolts, Volts, etrons, and Electric Fords are really common here. I don't think this is exclusive to this area, as I was just in LA, and they're everywhere there too.

Whether it's the urge to help reduce carbon emissions, or have the newest coolest thing, people are willing to shell out those amounts for a vehicle, regardless of how practical it is.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by volkl48 on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:48PM (#19574418)
Yeah, but these are all a certain cultural bubble where they are vastly over-represented.

EV's were 2.1% of new-car sales last year in the US. That's nearly doubling the 1.2% share from last year, and that is great growth.

But that still means 98% of new cars last year weren't. And with the average car on the road being ~12 years old, EV's are still practically a rounding error in the actual vehicle fleet.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by stcredzero on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:10PM (#19574679)
Yeah, but these are all a certain cultural bubble where they are vastly over-represented.

I suspect quite a few things are vastly over-represented in those cultural bubbles. I'd love to see a Tesla sales map!

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by mikeash on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:22AM (#19573362)
In sorta-rich places like Washington, DC, they’re all over the place.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by akhilcacharya on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:23AM (#19573384)
I live in Cambridge MA and see them everywhere, including pulling into my building's parking deck. Even X's!
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by robohoe on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:21PM (#19574801)
They're all over Chicagoland too.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by xkjkls on Thursday April 04, 2019 @05:20PM (#19577238)
Yeah, basically in the places that coastal elites exist.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by xedeon on Thursday April 04, 2019 @08:51PM (#19578609)
I live in the Boise, Idaho area. Far from a "coastal elite" location. They are also surprisingly everywhere here, where everyone love their pickup trucks.

Just the other day, I say a Model S as soon as I exited our subdivision. Saw 5 Model X's and another 6 Model S's. So no, not really.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by jacques_chester on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:08PM (#19579326)
How many Toyota Corollas did you count? Or F-150s?
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by xedeon on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:23PM (#19579408)
Let's keep moving the goalpost and changing the topic. :) But I'll indulge you since you need a quick history lesson.

Toyota: Founded: August 28, 1937

Ford Founded: June 16, 1903

Tesla Motors: Founded: July 1, 2003

So what's your point exactly?

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by jacques_chester on Friday April 05, 2019 @07:39AM (#19581543)
If I go looking for zebras, I will notice them. But that doesn't make them common.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by xedeon on Friday April 05, 2019 @01:30PM (#19584985)
You're hilarious. From EV's to ICE cars now animals? What's next? you'll ask me if I have seen aliens?

Before you ask, no I haven't seen those yet. Been to a 5 day African Safari and did not see any Zebras either.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by mikeash on Thursday April 04, 2019 @06:13PM (#19577632)
More expensive cars are purchased by people with more money. Total shocker.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by karpodiem on Thursday April 04, 2019 @10:49AM (#19572951)
I read HN, drive a Jeep Grand Cherokee, and short Tesla.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by jtx22 on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:12AM (#19573232)
Admit it, you don't read anything; you just look at the pictures.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by karpodiem on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:26PM (#19574176)
I've got some 'Best of HN' comment sections printed out and stuffed underneath the mattress.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by creaghpatr on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:21AM (#19573350)
I read HN for the articles I swear!
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by sjwright on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:01AM (#19573115)
You’re being sarcastic, right? What is the signal you’re trying to send by admitting to choosing one of the most unreliable car brands on the market?
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by karpodiem on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:34AM (#19573531)
I live in Detroit and buy a vehicle that's produced at Jefferson and Connor, five miles from where I live. I feel good about that.

The 3.6L V6 / and ZF eight speed transmission are battle tested - we're five years into the current Grand Cherokee iteration, they've mostly worked out the issues. The volume of TSBs (technical service bulletins - http://wk2jeeps.com/wk2_tsb.htm) are way lower vs. the launch model year.

I haven't had any quality issues, although it's early. I would never buy the first (and maybe even second) model year for any OEM, but especially FCA - that part I would agree with. Wait until year three.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by philwelch on Thursday April 04, 2019 @03:31PM (#19576223)
> battle tested

Interesting choice of words, considering that the trucks used as technicals [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_(vehicle)] in actual battle tend to be Toyotas.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by rifung on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:34PM (#19574260)
> You’re being sarcastic, right? What is the signal you’re trying to send by admitting to choosing one of the most unreliable car brands on the market?

Your statement is pretty closed minded.

What if they just like the car enough they're willing to put up with the unreliability? That's like suggesting people who buy new cars are all idiots because the depreciation is much worse.

Different people are allowed to have different priorities and tastes.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by stcredzero on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:08PM (#19574649)
Nope. We're all supposed to have the priorities and tastes the news tells us to.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by SEJeff on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:23PM (#19574819)
>> The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - George Orwell, 1984
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by gamblor956 on Thursday April 04, 2019 @04:21PM (#19576689)
What is the signal you’re trying to send by admitting to choosing one of the most unreliable car brands on the market?

People in glass cars shouldn't throw stones...

Have you seen the Tesla reliability reports? (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/10/24/tesla-...) They're even worse than Jeep's reliability reports, and Jeep's excuse is that they make cars for off-roading and other extreme activities that place heavier demands on the car's parts and frame. Tesla makes...road cars.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by rifung on Thursday April 04, 2019 @12:43PM (#19574359)
> most people on HN are the actual population that is buying teslas.

Is that really true?

I can't speak for everyone on HN obviously but I don't make enough to spend that much on a car. If I were willing to spend that much there are other cars I'd much rather get personally but that's besides the point.

Also given the relative infancy of EVs compared to gasoline powered cars now I would expect the pace of advances to be much better which fares poorly for depreciation.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by everdev on Thursday April 04, 2019 @10:59AM (#19573080)
I would love a Tesla if they were 50% cheaper.

I used to think that the big car companies weren't able to bring a competitive EV to market because they were bigger than Tesla and bogged down in layers of management.

Now I'm wondering if Tesla was just over marketed and overly ambitious entering the market and if these later entry EVs from main stream car companies in the next few years will be just as good at a fraction of the price.

EDIT: to clarify, I'm not comparing the price of EVs, but the price of a Tesla vs the price of a traditional gas-powered car. If I was only willing to buy an EV, then yes Tesla looks like a great deal.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by mjamesaustin on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:20AM (#19573336)
I mean no luxury brand sells a car for $17.5k. I'm sure the entire world would go bananas if the Model 3 were priced at that...

Chevy has the Bolt out now at the same price as the SR+ Model 3, and it's absurd how bad the Bolt looks in comparison. The range is the same, but the exterior, performance, and charging capabilities are dramatically inferior to Model 3.

The only other competition debuting in the near future is the Nissan Leaf Plus, which costs more than the Model 3 SR, and has all the issues of the Bolt on top of the fact that its battery isn't even actively cooled, which is terrifying for battery longevity.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by neogodless on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:28AM (#19573437)
I think the correct comparison would be Average Selling Price (ASP), which for a Model 3 is nearly $60k USD. So I think when someone suggests a 50% price reduction, they are saying they'd love to buy a Tesla that is real-world, no tax credits necessary, breaking the $30k barrier.

The most expensive Toyota Camry barely tops $30k[0], and the vast majority sells for less. So ultimately, mainstream electric cars will have to compete in this space (and probably without tax credits, unfortunately.)

I only have one anecdote - my co-worker bought a Model 3, and it was over $60k. That's a luxury! I'm a reasonably well-paid software guy, but I've never spent more than $29k on a car. Currently I drive a hatchback that I bought nearly new for under $20k. So I'm stuck looking at the Nissan Leaf as my option for an electric car, and it would probably work if I kicked my wife out of the garage and installed a charger there. But I'm hesitant to go from a Mazda 3 to a Leaf.

[0] https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/2019-Toyota-Camry-Price-c27940

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by Domenic_S on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:46PM (#19575078)
The $35k price for the base Model 3 is before tax incentives. After tax incentives in CA it's something like $28k + sales tax.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by FireBeyond on Thursday April 04, 2019 @08:42PM (#19578566)
The incentive in CA for the M3 is $2,500, and Tesla's Federal incentive is about to drop to $1,750.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by Klathmon on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:08AM (#19573191)
I'm not sure why i'm jumping into this thread, but 50% cheaper!? You want a brand new electric car for $17.5k USD?

Even the cheapest ICE cars sold in the US have trouble hitting that number... That just seems like a completely unreasonably high bar to hold EVs to at this point since things like batteries are so much more expensive than an ICE engine.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by mikeash on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:20AM (#19573340)
A quick search on cars.com reveals 1,700 new cars within 50 miles of my zip code for under $15,000.

I agree that a decent EV for that price is just not practical yet, but cheap ICE cars have no trouble hitting it.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by Klathmon on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:36AM (#19573547)
That's fair I guess, I did a cursory search and saw things from Toyota and Nissan in the $16-18k range, and I didn't really search more.

But I was also expecting to compare MSRP, but I now realize that it's not really a good comparison since Teslas are bought less like cars (with haggling and discounts) and more like a new phone (you pay the price they set). Still, I'm floored that ICE cars are that cheap!

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by mikeash on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:47AM (#19573689)
Yeah, you can believe the MSRP for Tesla but for other cars you need to see what the local dealers are offering. (And even then, it’s approximate.)

The low end gets very basic, but some people just want cheap transportation and don’t care about features.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by stcredzero on Thursday April 04, 2019 @01:12PM (#19574701)
Still, I'm floored that ICE cars are that cheap!

If you wait, you'll probably see a special for Nissan Versas just over 10k.

Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by akhilcacharya on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:23AM (#19573373)
My parents' 2016 Leaf (last gen) was about that price or less after utility price cut ($10k off) and tax credit.
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by r_smart on Thursday April 04, 2019 @04:05PM (#19576527)
I bought my Honda Fit for $16.5k. It's one of the more expensive cars in it's class, but me, I was willing to pay a little more for the luxury :)
Re:Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet by codeulike on Thursday April 04, 2019 @11:10AM (#19573211)
Kia and Hyundai have some decent EV offerings now that would compete with the Model 3, but they can't get the batteries made due to supply issues so they're only selling small amounts of them. e.g. Kia e-Niro got 'car of the year' in What Car magazine but they've only got 900 for the whole of the UK this year. So one thing Tesla has done right is build a huge battery factory.