* Through roughly 9 hours, the error rate was about the same. Say, x%

* In the 10th hour, the error rate increased. Say x + y%.

* In hours 11 and 12, the amount the error rate increase doubled the 10th hour's increase. So x + 2y%.

* In hours 13 and 14, the amount the error rate increase quadrupled the 10th hour's increase. So x + 4y%.

* In every subsequent hour studied, the error rate increase doubled again. x + 8y% in hour 15, x + 16y% in hour 16.

I want to say the study went to 18 hours, but I don't recall if it was 16 or 18 at this point. The paper made the recommendation that shift lengths should be limited to 10 hours maximum.

Every health care professional I spoke to about the article (resident doctors and nurses, maybe 10 overall, mostly in the ER) said the same three things:

1. They had personally witnessed someone make an error they could attribute to tiredness.

2. They themselves had never made a mistake due to tiredness.

3. They didn't want to change their schedule. Either they liked having 4 days off every week, or they thought it wasn't a significant problem.

3. They didn't want to change their schedule. Either they liked having 4 days off every week, or they thought it wasn't a significant problem.

I think those two items and the tribal knowledge that handoffs are more dangerous to the patient helps the overwork model persist. Sounds like it's past time the medical industry prove that handoffs are more dangerous to patient outcomes. Doctors are trained to be problem owners and problem solvers, but that doesn't make them good team players. And lowering handoffs also limits oversight and prevents second guessing which is great if you're convinced you're always right, but clearly doctors are not always right and patients often pay the price.

And the sleep deprivation and hazing "I did it so everbody else must too!" is definitely a cultic thing.

I use cult very deliberately to point at the reasoning being entirely irrational and social as opposed to underlying value. And also because actual cults use slerp deprivation.

Also explained that the guy who created the residency program was a cocaine addict who rarely slept, and since then all doctors have to try to follow his crazy schedule for no good reason..

So she's only "scheduled" for ~67 hours a week averaged throughout the month, but realistically it is in the 85-90 range.

It's easy to see how a more demanding or emergent field could seriously select for folks who are more able or willing to work on less sleep.

The original rationale was that the "on call" hours were not supposed to be busy and the duty doctors could spend most of them sleeping in a bunk or studying: but by the late 1980s (when I heard about things) they were working more or less constantly through their shifts.

The EU Working Hours Directive was supposed to fix this by banning workers from putting in more than about 50 hours a week without very specific protections being enforced, but one of the first things the UK's Conservative government did in 2010 was to stop enforcing this.

I know labor unions (sometimes rightfully) get a bad rap, but it seems this is exactly the type of abuse they were designed to stop. There are some [0] but the rate is low, less than 15%, and there's a sort of self-censorship style of pressure against pushing harder for them.

[0] https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/doctors...

It controls a great deal about doctor's education and working conditions. It does not collectively bargain, so it's not strictly a union. But it's more powerful than most unions at this point. So a glib, "maybe doctors should get a union to represent them" answer to poor working conditions for residents doesn't really make sense. They already have a powerful organization that should represent them.

I think that there is at least some group of physicians who really think that poor working conditions for residents improves patient outcomes and doctor training.

As for patient outcomes, I'd love to see a study of them for the roughly 15% of residents that have a union and very modest work place improvements, compared to outcomes for the rest of residents. You're right, many doctors do seem to "feel" the traditional method is superior, but I'd like to see hard data.

I found this paper: http://www.acgme.org/Portals/0/PDFs/Position%20Papers/Commit...

It's citations have some hard data. Maybe the most interesting part for me was this:

"There exists instead a widespread belief that physicians can be trained to defy the biology of sleep and that safeguards are in place so that patients and residents are not harmed by work schedules that are unheard of in any other workplace, let alone a hospital. That belief is most evident today in the FIRST and iCOMPARE studies that set out to prove that there is no difference in patient outcomes from residents who work 16 or 30 hour shifts. The principal investigators were so convinced that no harm would come of these experiments that they determined it wasn’t necessary to obtain informed consent from either patients or residents in the hospitals where the studies were conducted. This determination has been widely disputed and is now under investigation by the Office of Human Research Protections."

I don't know at what point the errors from sleep deprivation exceed the errors from patient handoffs. People seem to take different views depending on what side of the work hours debate they fall on.

Not in the US. The doctor per pop count is very low.

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Health/Physi...

[1] https://www.accepted.com/medical/med-selectivity-index

Given the choice, I'm not sure someone whose 4-year earning potential is capped at $60k with $200k in student loans would want to extend that to 5/6/7 years.

I would challenge that assumption because I don't believe there's any consistent number of hours worked by residents in rotation, is there? I mean there are published schedules and then there are actually the number of hours worked which at least according to the other posters is even more than scheduled. So if there's already an element of randomness here and different doctors are getting different numbers of in-rotation hours then it's plausible hours could be made consistent and reduced, isn't it?

I'm sorry about your mother in law regardless.

In a plane in level controlled flight, there is very little to hand off between two type-rated pilots. Both folks understand the machine, and the machine is working the way it is supposed to. Humans work the same way! Parents "hand off" their healthy kids to schools or babysitters or relatives every day.

But imagine a plane that is in the process of crashing; it's in a dive, controls are not responding as expected, one of the engines keeps turning off. A pilot is fighting to regain control... how comfy are you with THAT pilot handing off the aircraft to another pilot in the middle of that situation?

It's a little silly as an analogy, since plane crashes tend to be resolved pretty quickly one or the other. But conceptually, just imagine a plane that is in the process of maybe crashing for 12 hours. There's a good argument for a pilot to just see that through instead of "clocking out" at 8 hours.

Are you aware that on long haul international flights pilots do in fact rotate who is actively "flying" the plane? Flying is in quotes because most of the work is done by automation these days. I won't draw any analogies between the autopilot doing much of the work for pilots and nurses doing it for doctors because I can't actually support the statement with any data.

I should also point out that the vast majority of doctors don't work 120 hours a week continuously, rather, they experience higher-than-usual clusters of working time vs. not working time. That is, they might be on rotation for 36 hours straight but then off for 36 hours or more. And some of their shifts might only be 8 hours. Residents work longer hours, but are supervised by doctors.

I know several ER docs and they all cite the dangers of patient hand-off as the main reason they continue to support long shifts.

We know from lab experiments that performance craters way, way before that, which is why pilots, truck drivers, cops, and every other profession work shorter shifts.

Patient hand-offs between shifts tends to introduce errors. Instead of finding ways to improve hand-offs, the ACGME is simply trying to have fewer of them.

These are supposed to be some of the "top minds" in medicine and that's the best they can come up with.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading...