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Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by michaelt on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @03:24AM (#18540532)

  But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there
  was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses,
  that’s what the spies delivered.

  “These people were close to the West, they lived in the
  West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but
  they reported what they were told to report,” Jones
  explains. 
  [...]
  It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of
  the Soviet system,” says Jones, “Soviet intelligence did
  not act rationally.”
Modern western governments will do precisely the same thing; the politicians ask for a dossier saying Iraq has weapons of mass destruction they can launch in 45 minutes? Then that's what they get.

I always assumed this was seen as a feature rather than a bug - i.e. that politicians choose and instruct spy agency bosses to be politically compliant, rather than to produce reports that are unbiased and strictly factual.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by varjag on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:43AM (#18540928)
No, most of the Western governments don't do that. The reason "coalition of the willing" was so thin is that aside the US and the UK few bought that. France have threatened veto in the UN, so it was not put to the vote… that's also how the whole "freedom fries" idiocy took off. And the rest of continental Europe was immensely sceptical.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by adventured on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:51AM (#18540957)
France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict.

"Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by lmm on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:02AM (#18541288)
> France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad).

And if the US had argued for invading Iraq on that basis, maybe we'd've supported it. But of course we're going to oppose an invasion when its proponents are basing their arguments on a blatant lie like the 45 minute claim.

(If the US/UK thought there was a good case for invasion on genuine grounds, why did they feel the need to lie?)

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by varjag on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:59AM (#18541572)
Indeed, if we look back France committed 18,000 troops for the first Gulf War that was widely considered a just cause. Similarly most of the NATO allies supported the USA in Afghanistan.

But that going into a war on a false pretext is morally corrupt, and fortunately most Western governments were above that.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by nicolas_t on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @12:02PM (#18544075)
Not to mention that the French total had a cosy relationship with Saddam Hussein's government after they negotiated in 1997 for access. It was really not in the interest of France to have a war in Irak
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by varjag on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:54AM (#18540974)
Both Libya and Syria conflicts were started by their respective dictators massacring people.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sacado2 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:13AM (#18541050)
Khaddaffi (not sure about spelling) was a friend of France just a few years before he got killed. He was even invited to put his tent in the gardens of the Élysée by newly elected president Sarkozy, four years before. And back then, Khaddaffi was not especially a benevolent dictator.

And there are tons of counter examples. For example, Eritrea is recognized as one of the worst dictatorship in the world, and we have no troops over here to free the people of Eritrea.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by mcv on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:28AM (#18541748)
I think there were two things that made a difference in Libya:

* Khaddafi ordered his soldiers to shoot non-violent protesters * There was (as a result) an active rebellion against him that could use some support

There was no invasion by western forces, and I think the air support was mostly to stop Khaddafi from massacring his own people. I don't think western forces ever assisted in an attack; it was fairly limited and mostly denied Khaddafi the advantage of his air force.

A thumb on the scale to tip the balance between Khaddafi and the rebels, basically.

And in fact, Syria is not so different, although the involvement is on a much larger scale. It's still mostly various rebel factions that do the actual fighting. Iraq, by contrast, was a full scale invasion, and one based on a lie.

I'm not saying that makes Libya and Syria completely justified, but it's clearly a different case than Iraq, and much easier to justify, if you accept the legitimacy of the rebels.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by orbifold on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @09:08AM (#18542344)
Both in Syria and Lybia you had quite a few special forces on the ground and some of the war lords / Kurdish militia got equipment and funding through western intelligence agencies. In the case of the Syrian civil war you could follow the factions and who they were supported by in real time on a google map somewhere.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by opless on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:17AM (#18541367)
He did weed out people he considered his enemies, but he did give people free education, a banking system that was more client friendly (in terms of loans etc) and I understand free utilities.

I was of the understanding that the invasion was to increase France's political clout in North Africa, to avoid Ghaddafi's plan of unifying Africa under a gold standard (Gold Dinar) and most importantly to sell oil under the aforementioned currency.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sacado2 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:34AM (#18541440)
I was of the same understanding, but this is pure speculation, obviously.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by mousecorkkey on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:09AM (#18541331)
Are you referring to Gaddafi?
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by ben_w on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:12AM (#18541649)
Given his name isn’t really written in the Latin alphabet (“معمر محمد أبو منيار القذافي”, according to Wikipedia), all these variations are equally [in]correct.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sacado2 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:35AM (#18541442)
Yep, we call him Kadhafi in French (and this time I checked the spelling).
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by mcv on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:33AM (#18541781)
I notice Wikipedia now spells it as Gaddafi. I thought it used to be Khaddafi in English.

Interestingly, Dutch Wikipedia now calls him al-Qadhafi.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by toomanybeersies on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @08:29AM (#18542091)
It's a transliteration of Arabic. There's no single correct transliteration so it depends on the publisher as to what spelling they use.

Here's a very fun Stack Overflow question about using a regex to match the different spellings: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/5365283/regular-expressi...

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by Koshkin on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @09:37AM (#18542571)
It's such a mess. We might be better off just translating the damn names (like they did in the remote past)...
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by fapjacks on Friday November 30, 2018 @12:40AM (#18567003)
Yes, but if we did that, the news would get confusing as we tried to sort out which "Grand King King of the Warrior Kings" they were talking about.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sparkie on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @08:42AM (#18542175)
The reports that Ghaddafi was massacring people were rumors and were widely publicised when Genevieve Garrigos (Head of Amnesty International) appeared on French TV to report it.

6 months later, the same head of Amnesty International claimed that they had sent in investigators between Feb and July, and those investigators found no evidence that Ghaddafi had hired mercenaries to attack civilians.

Of course that was too late. The French/UK/US operation had already begun well before the investigation took place, and they weren't interested in evidence.

But your media probably didn't report on that.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by adventured on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:01AM (#18540998)
There are a couple dozen vile governments all over the world doing terrible things to their people at any given time. That alone doesn't explain why France is so aggressively interested in keeping the US in the Syria conflict. That same exact justification that you just mentioned applied equally to Iraq, Saddam had massacred and brutalized his own people for a long time.

You don't see France egging on the US to get militarily involved in Venezuela for example. What's going on there is a human disaster of a similar scale as Syria, with the Maduro dictatorship brutalizing and starving the people, and millions fleeing the country. There is rarely a shortage of civil wars and other assorted internal conflicts to get involved in around the world. So why is France specifically so amped up to keep the US in Syria?

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by varjag on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:17AM (#18541073)
Iraq wasn't in the state of unrest at the time of invasion, although yes, in principle Saddam was as murderous dictator as the other two. Arab spring would most decidedly have flared up his Iraq as well.

Venezuela crisis is not anywhere on the scale of outright war in Syria and Libya. It is also well outside the reach of feasible French force projection. France however is involved in a number of conflicts elsewhere in francophone Africa, relatively low profile as the interventions have stabilizing effect.

With Libya and Syria we also had as close to A/B test in history as we get. What if we interfere in a massacre, and what if we watch from the sidelines in exchange for deal with Iran? The answer is apparently two orders of magnitude more deaths, displacement and human suffering.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by mockingbirdy on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:14AM (#18541058)
It's about the refugees. Many EU countries lack basic decency and risk to destroy EU because of Syrian refugees.

Solving the crisis there is indirectly one of the interests of the EU. The current situation also strengthens the position of Russia in the Middle East which is not in European interest.

Disclaimer: I'm from Germany. We have a shift to the right in most EU countries. One of the reasons the Britains left the EU was the refugee crisis - populists used this to scare the voters. This concept was also very successful to get votes in Germany with AfD (alternative party for Germany, right-wing).

Would love to hear other opinions instead of getting downvotes.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by ben_w on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:18AM (#18541692)
The countries most upset by refugees, are those who have the least. This has also been the case in the UK (communities who hate immigrants and want less don’t have any) and from what I’ve seen of German voting patterns in recent elections.

The fear of them has been amplified, but I don’t believe the actual refugees are the problem.

And, in case you’re wondering about me mixing up refugees and migrants, part of the problem in the UK is that angry people can’t tell them apart, so I don’t actually know which they’re really objecting to.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by mockingbirdy on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @10:17AM (#18542901)
> I don’t believe the actual refugees are the problem.

I don't think so, too. The underlying problem is growing inequality of wealth and opportunities. The very far right-wing people fear that the refugees will worsen their situation (and many are simply xenophobic, too).

I think it's a shame that there is no differentiation between these problems of inequality and helping people who get attacked by their own government. It seems that many people here in Europe don't understand that it's our duty to help people who get killed in their home countries (by our own moral standards).

- - -

France (and other European nations) care about the Syrian conflict because of the fear that more refugees will seek shelter in the EU (most European countries could handle this, but they won't do it because they aren't humanitarian which is pretty sad to see). Bringing peace to Syria is therefore a critical part of EU's solution to this (another wave of refugees would seriously risk the EU because the people here seem to have lost their connection to humanism - we could easily handle it if we want to). I have a hunch that I got downvotes because people interpreted my opinion as being contra refugees, but I'm actually telling the opposite. The problem is that many European countries (i.e. people) have decided that it's not their problem when people are in life-threatening situations and die while trying to get into those countries.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by emilsedgh on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:10AM (#18541033)
I think the key is "stay" (vs. initiate)

U.S. started the war on Iraq for no reason but pulling out the troops too early was a mistake that allowed ISIS to exist.

Pulling out of Syria in its current form might create a similar vacuum of power that allowed ISIS to exist.

Asking the U.S. to stay in Syria is not comparable to how U.S. started the Iraq war.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by nova22033 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @10:07AM (#18542805)
Assad is genuinely using chemical weapons against a civilian population so I don't think this makes the point you're trying to make.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sacado2 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:02AM (#18541002)
Not sure why you've been downvoted there. Regarding Syria, the same thing happened as with Iraq.

In Iraq, the US and UK said "Saddam has mass destruction weapons, we must attack him", and the French said "okay, just show us the proof, and we'll be on your side". USA said they had a proof but didn't want to show it. France did not support the attack.

In Syria, USA, UK and France said "Bachar use chemical weapons on his population, we must attack him", and Russia said "okay, just show us the proof, and we'll be on your side". France said they had a proof but didn't want to show it. Russia did not support the attack.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by varjag on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:20AM (#18541088)
OPCW has provided the proof of multiple incidents perpetrated by Syrian government. That you decide to support Assad is a matter of conscience, not absence of facts.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sacado2 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:58AM (#18541274)
First, let's not call each other names. I certaninly don't support Assad, just as the fact you (or I) don't support Assad certainly doesn't mean you (or I) support ISIS. Our ennemies' ennemies are not always our friends.

Now, I just reported the fact that France said back then "we have evidence", but didn't show it at that time. Then they published an official report [1] a few days later, basically saying "oh, we have good reasons to think it's true, with a high degree of confidence" (haut degré de confiance). Basically, that document says

1- there was probably a chemical attack a few days ago 2- it would be strategically a good idea for Assad to use chemical weapons. 3- we have not heard about rebels acquiring chemical weapons. 4- therefore, Assad is responsible.

That's what happened at that time. Now, if you have a document from April 2018 giving factual proofs, and not just mentioning a "high degree of confidence", I'd be glad to revise my knowledge of the situation.

[1] https://www.defense.gouv.fr/layout/set/popup/base-de-medias/... [pdf][French]

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by varjag on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:43AM (#18541480)
OPCW reports are publicly available, all detail is there. Ignoring those to provide leeway for murderers means supporting them.

https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/wp-content/uploads/s_2...

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by RobertoG on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:24AM (#18541724)
I wanted to know what happened so I read the report.

I have to say that the "details" are scarce in the report. The investigator not even went to place where the attack happened (because of the danger).

The conclusions are also interesting, because they accuse ISIL, and not Assad. While sometimes ISIL and Assad have shared interests in the ongoing war, that doesn't mean they are the same. After all, we have seen some USA/Iran cooperation in the area too.

So, I find your accusation to the grandparent of "provide leeway for murderers " when he is just saying that the facts are not clear dishonest.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by varjag on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:43AM (#18541847)
You didn't really finish the report, did you?

Page 33:

> On the basis of the foregoing, the Leadership Panel is confident that the Syrian Arab Republic is responsible for the release of sarin at Khan Shaykhun on 4 April 2017.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by RobertoG on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @09:35AM (#18542557)
You are right, unwisely I commented before finishing it (it's a long document). I offer my excuses.

I found specially damaging for the Syrian version the point 24 and 26 in the annex II: "The Syrian Arab Republic informed the Mechanism that the pilot had later been shot down and was missing in action. "

"During a briefing given by the Syrian Arab Republic to the Mechanism in Damascus, a representative of the Syrian Arab Air Force stated that no aircraft of the Air Force had attacked Khan Shaykhun on 4 April 2017. This contradicted the public statement made by the Government [..]"

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sacado2 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:04AM (#18541605)
Thanks a lot, I'll have to read that. It's from 2017, though, I was especially talking about what happened in April 2018 in the great-grandparent-or-something post.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by SCHiM on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:17AM (#18541072)
How do you mean no proof? There's numerous reports by impartial agencies documenting the use of chemical weapons since early 2014.

There is no failure to provide evidence, only the usual conflicts.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by sacado2 on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @06:33AM (#18541431)
I'm talking about the 7th of april to 16th of april, between the moment an attack happened and France/US/UK decided to attack because they had proof Assad was the author of this precise attack. If you could point me to one of these reports, I'd be grateful.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by TheSpiceIsLife on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:48AM (#18541220)
> And the rest of continental Europe was immensely sceptical.

You mean: sat by and did nothing.

Everyone's wailing about US <> Saudi relations with regard to Khashoggi. Was anyone suggesting trade relations with the US should be dropped due to their war on Iraq, which, by all accounts, killed more than one person.

Coalition of the complicit.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by adventured on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:34AM (#18540873)
The highest level politicians that took us into Iraq knew there were no WMD. They merely needed a good enough excuse to do it.

We've got four star general - US Presidential candidate, and NATO Supreme Allied Commander right before 9/11 - Wesley Clark admitting it in public on YouTube. I'll never understand why the most important policy admission of the last 30 years is intentionally ignored in all discussion of what the West is doing in Iraq, Syria, Libya, et al. This is the Western powers - led by the US - looking to strip Russia's power out of the Middle East (or at least break it). According to Clark, particularly before China completes its rise to power (which would present a demand to dilute focus, weakening the ability to challenge Russia's strategic goals). These proxy conflicts haven't stopped for a single day since WW2. Don't take my word for it, or Clark's for that matter, just look at the powers in Syria wrestling over who gets to keep or acquire influence (the US/West v Russia).

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by arethuza on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:38AM (#18540899)
It's the politician's syllogism:

- We must do something

- This is something

- Therefore, we must do this.

After 9/11 the US had to do something, Afghanistan wasn't enough, so do Iraq.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by RobertoG on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:59AM (#18540993)
So, they choose Iraq randomly?

The idea of 'doing something' about Iraq was a lot older.

9/11 was just the excuse. When you read about the subject it's interesting to realize how many people in Washington was against that war, including the Pentagon and the State Department, but powerful interest prevailed.

From https://www.haaretz.com/1.4764706:

"Is the Iraq war the great neoconservative war? It's the war the neoconservatives wanted, Friedman says. It's the war the neoconservatives marketed. Those people had an idea to sell when September 11 came, and they sold it. Oh boy, did they sell it. So this is not a war that the masses demanded. This is a war of an elite. Friedman laughs: I could give you the names of 25 people (all of whom are at this moment within a five-block radius of this office) who, if you had exiled them to a desert island a year and a half ago, the Iraq war would not have happened. Still, it's not all that simple, Friedman retracts [..]"

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by arethuza on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:19AM (#18541082)
I agree, definitely not random - it was sitting on the shelf waiting for someone to find an excuse to "do" it:

"Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable."

Milton Friedman

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by adventured on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:46AM (#18540938)
They did Iraq right with Afghanistan because they had the war machine out of the box and the population revved up to allow it. If they had waited, the public and Congress would have been against it. Obama tested the waters for doing a larger war with Syria in 2013 (which would have attempted to ensure the removal of al-Assad), too much time had passed since 9/11 and people were very war weary by then. With almost no support for more big wars Congress shot it down and Obama abruptly backed down.

Sept 2013: "Obama Seeks Approval by Congress for Strike in Syria"

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/01/world/middleeast/syria.ht...

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by profalseidol on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @05:22AM (#18541098)
They already did something before 9/11 and I think that was a retaliation against an attack to a US embassy. And list goes on.
Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by arethuza on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @03:52AM (#18540686)
I can strongly recommend the book "The Spy and the Traitor" about Oleg Gordievsky and MI6:

https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/279/279582/the-spy-and-the-t...

It goes into quite a lot of detail about what it was like to work in the KGB at that time.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by mcv on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @07:05AM (#18541608)
It's most definitely a bug. If you want a reliable government, you need reliable intelligence that does not fabricate excuses for war.

Government is not about serving the politicians, it's about serving the people.

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by Stratoscope on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @11:35AM (#18543769)
Mobile-readable quote:

> But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered.

> “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains.

> [...]

> It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “Soviet intelligence did not act rationally.”

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by wu-ikkyu on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @09:46AM (#18542631)
While that may be true in many cases the example of Iraq and WMDs is more nuanced than most realize. The CIA was not reaching the conclusions that the Bush administration wanted and so Bush and co. created the Office of Special plans in order to deliberately stovepipe (misinterpret) the intelligence.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Special_Plans

Re:A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered ... by ivanhoe on Tuesday November 27, 2018 @04:32AM (#18540862)
I'm pretty sure they just tell them: -We need something... find it or make it, I don't care...