>I'm not sure there's any moral to this

There's not, you're like every other financial analyst claiming the market will go up or down tomorrow. Your whole analysis is basically "buy low/sell high". That's not meant to be an insult, there's just nothing in your posts justifying being correct.

Cryptocurrency is pure speculation. You can't know if an exchange is going to blow up or get defrauded or hacked. You can't know how regulators are going to treat it in the future unless you're in the room. Then there is understanding forks and the development process and the drama around that. Then you could always get hacked and lose your money.

It's a financial instrument requiring enormous amounts of concentration and technical ability just to participate at the baseline. Which is fine if you already have enough money to afford the time to do that, and to afford a complete loss of investment. It's always fundamentally about what level of risk you are willing to tolerate.

Two months from now, $10k could be seen as a completely reasonably buy-in price when it hits $30k. We just have no idea how high it's going to go because it's the first of its kind.

There was a justification: Bitcoin had been crashing, and therefore it was time to buy.

Buying dips and crashes isn't new stuff, you're basically predicting how much people will/are panicking. There's no exact science around that, but many of the lessons there don't apply to Bitcoin because of all of the other factors surrounding its usage and problems which can also drive the price.

And yes, maybe you buy at the top of a crash and your portfolio drops 50%, but then months later it recovers to 100% above the point where it crashed previously.

All of the things that have happened to Bitcoin and bitcoin services (Silk Road) make me think that if cryptocurrency is going to stay around, it will cycle just as the stock market and businesses do, which means there will be plenty of opportunities down the line to make 1000% gains -- in bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

Until you have regulators on your side (which means a government isn't going to raid an exchange), and much of the hacking and drama goes away, it's never going to be more than technically complex gambling.

There would be a lot of millionaires if it was possible to know at which level a stock has bottomed out. And Bitcoin isn't even a stock, which makes it absurd to speculate when the currency has become cheap enough to invest into.

Actually, his strategy here is buy high, sell higher. This is going to be a common theme for years to come.

Just because something ends up positively doesn't necessarily make it a good idea.

If someone sold everything they have and bet it on red in roulette (47.4% chance of win), even if they win I'd still call the idea stupid.

Bitcoin is currently a risky investment and investing in it is not a good idea and is closer to gambling - regardless of the final outcome.

Thats like saying that investing in facebook at 1b$ valuation is a bet idea because its just a company with a website.

This is classic survivorship bias though. If you'd have said buy in at $3k 72 days ago and then BTC's value evaporated you'd never be posting this comment or your previous

Maybe it wasn't a good idea based on the information available at that time?

It looks like a lot of people followed your advise though. Otherwise Bitcoin wouldn't have been so high.

Bitcoin seems to be driven purely by speculation right now. Before the next breakthrough, which may or may not happen, the only reason Bitcoin is so high is that people think it is a good idea to buy.

I said the same with many warnings surrounded (and I never called it investing), but happy I did buy and a few friends are very grateful. However it could've been the reverse.

> it could've been the reverse

Totally this. I get asked by friends if they should buy in (or buy more) and my answer is always "if you can afford to lose it, sure". I feel like people asking if they should buy or not right now will be far too distracted by the volatility to profit. If you're asking this (in the hope of a black and white "yes/no" answer) then you will probably also panic sell if it drops 10%, which would be nothing in the context of this year.

Dollar cost averaging is what I suggest to my friends (and again, only if they are "happy" to potentially lose a percentage of it quickly as much as they gain). Of course, nobody wants to hear that!

When is a good time to sell?

Shortterm, probably right now. It will fall down to at least $9700 in the next few hours/days.

Train your weak hands and hodl. Don't sell.

Is it a good idea to buy now?

No. Wait for a drop of 20-30%. ;)

Catch that falling knife!

After reaching $11400 it dropped to $8800. Nearly 30%. That is where you should have bought. ;)

Yes, so better buy some put-options.

Oh, wait ...

Yes go for it

Did you follow your own advice?

333% increase in 72 days, and you're acting like this is logical or a safe bet?

It's just gambling and speculation. Some will win, some will lose. It's fine if you jump on the train and play, but don't be surprised when the bubble pops.

But even if it pops, it will get back up some day. It sucks, but you get to keep your "lottery ticket".

We don't really know that, it isn't a normal currency.

True, so far no one who has bought bitcoin should have ever lost any money.

* bought and not sold

People lose money because they sell. Sometimes because they need to sell independently of what the price is doing.

Past performance projects future gains, right? ;)