It hasn't changed since the breakup of Ma Bell in 1982, the Baby Bells having re-formed into two companies: Verizon and AT&T, who control the last mile of wire and wireless, the network neutrality of which they have been fighting against. It hasn't changed since the big eight accounting firms became the big four accounting firms. It hasn't changed as Google and Facebook swallowed up all online advertising, search, social networks etc.
The idea that the zeitgeist has shifted from monopoly is absurd. Billionaires from Warren Buffett to Peter Thiel seem to think otherwise. In every industry, mergers and acquisitions leave an increasingly fewer companies with control of more and more of their markets. The data is out there and quite obvious, you really have to put on some kind of ideological fantasy land kool-aid trip to see otherwise.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/big-oil-j...
[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/04/30/indias-a...
[3] https://thinkprogress.org/norway-aims-to-end-sales-of-fuel-b...
[4] http://www.fleetcarma.com/buying-ev-low-oil-prices/
[5] http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
[6] http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/5-...
[7] https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/driving-electricity-chea...
Tesla will make some cars for Tesla fans. Tesla will make billions selling key parts to everyone else. So they'll be the new Bosch of EVs, really.
I do hope they succeed this is a major market; automobiles and such; that needs new infusions to move forward both in technology and design. However they are at a very dangerous point in their history and how they execute over the next six months is most important.
Have you even heard of electric cars like Renault Zoe, Chevy Bolt, BYD ev300? All with range from 180-230 miles, selling since 2016.
Traditional car makers are just extremely slow to adjust, because they have never faced any real disruption. They've effectively been selling the same product for decades with only some marginal and incremental improvements. Tesla, on the other hand, is using the SV model of doing business: First create an MVP, then iterate rapidly until you have something that is so good, it can steamroll the market. When Tesla was founded, traditional car makers laughed at them, claiming they would never be able to even build a proper car. These comments are eerily similar to what the Palm CEO had to say about Apple and the IPhone ten years ago: That a couple of computer people from SV would never be able to build a proper phone.
Traditional car companies are entirely unprepared to deal with the kind disruption that is coming to their market. And that does not only concern EVs but also self-driving cars and the sharing economy. I don't think they can stop Tesla. The real question is how much of their business they will be able to save.
Is there a term for the dismissive attitude tech people have for any older company?
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2017/03/22/sears-to...
[2] http://io9.gizmodo.com/25-obsolete-technologies-that-future-...
They already have. Its too late. Who else is going to be producing 500k EVs a year in the next 3-5 years? No one.
Renault-Nissan already produce around 100k EVs per year. Is it that hard to imagine them doing 500k in 5 years?
What about China? They're certainly making plans for these kinds of volumes.
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. […] I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.”
Tesla certainly has a market, but it isn't competing for the same consumers that Honda is. The market Tesla is competing for is significantly smaller than 17M.
The amount of people who can afford any new car is not the same as the number of people who can afford a new Tesla.
Across their entire lineup BMW sold 2.4M cars in 2016 (including MINI) [1]. I just don't see them selling 500k/year in the immediate future. Once they add models (the Y, a replacement for the Roadster, and a Truck), then they very easily could blow through that rate. But baby steps... I'd rather see Tesla exceed modest expectations than fail to meet unrealistic ones.
[1] https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T026708...
Also... nissan has an interesting play here. Waiting to see what they do.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/demand-for-electric-vehicles...
[2] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electric-car-sale...
It can be your fantasy, your dream, your oprinion, that's all very fine. But you cannot say that is what is going to happen, that's just one bet, one possibility (and not the most likely IMO) amongst several possibilities.
By the way Tesla hasn't made a battery, ever. They are made by Panasonic. Tesla packs them into little metal boxes.