Elon rarely makes categorical statements about future goals, usually throwing in a few weasel words, or "we project" or "we plan", but during Tesla's last earnings call he said:

“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. […] I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.”

And I have no doubt that they will reach a 10000 unit week. And they will probably have that production capacity. But once their backlog of orders has been filled, how many orders will they realistically have per week? I think that is the outstanding question.

17 million new cars are sold each year in the US alone. The market is there and proven.

And how many of those new cars sold for > $35-40k?

Tesla certainly has a market, but it isn't competing for the same consumers that Honda is. The market Tesla is competing for is significantly smaller than 17M.

The amount of people who can afford any new car is not the same as the number of people who can afford a new Tesla.

Have you driven a Tesla? If not, then you should. Might change your view.

I've had my Model 3 reservation since the day they opened... but it's highly unlikely to assume that Tesla can hit those production marks with the (admittedly) limited line up it has.

Across their entire lineup BMW sold 2.4M cars in 2016 (including MINI) [1]. I just don't see them selling 500k/year in the immediate future. Once they add models (the Y, a replacement for the Roadster, and a Truck), then they very easily could blow through that rate. But baby steps... I'd rather see Tesla exceed modest expectations than fail to meet unrealistic ones.

[1] https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T026708...