Some form of globalization is actually the best case scenario, the golden path for this world. It must include some form of control mechanisms against inequality spiraling out of control - and that's just one factor among many.
A united world is the only way to significantly reduce the risk of global conflict. It's also the only way to ensure that a large fraction of the world is not dying of starvation while another fraction goes swimming in champaign-filled pools. It would also mean pooling up resources on a global scale. It would make large parts of military budgets redundant, freeing that money for other purposes.
i agree that globalization would reduce the risk of global conflict - there would only be one side. thus, if the wrong people were in power there would be no way to fight them. that's scary.
That's not scary, that's the US. The Federal government functions more successfully than state governments in every way. In the Fed we have Trump vs. in states we have literal coups and gerrymandering. The US is better as a federation than individual states in every way. A state is not more able to fight "the wrong people being in charge", but they are significantly more vulnerable to it.
No, it's the other way'round.
On the way to globalization, we need to make sure inequality stays within reasonable levels, otherwise the whole thing will fail.
The US has a really bad track record when it comes to distributing the gains of globalisation in terms of disposable income, it is absolutely not the case that "a rising tide lifts all boats", because the gains have predominantly gone to the upper and upper-middle classes, screwing the middle and lower classes over.
Other western countries have managed this much better, and redistributed the gains more evenly. That the US sucks at redistribution, is not a case against globalisation, but that unfortunately doesn't stop the uninformed populist-in-chief and his angry supporters from blaming all their woes on globalisation.
How have other western countries managed this better? Can any of the methods used by those countries you speak of be used in the US?
Of course, but the American people are generally extremely skeptical of the idea that other countries might do things better, and any US politician that tried would immediately be branded a dirty, stinking, socialist. Because that's what you need, a little bit of socialism.
You need to tax the individuals and corporations that make the biggest gains from globalisation.
You need to redistribute that wealth to the individuals that are hardest hit by globalisation, those whose jobs are disappearing.
You need to invest in education, so the next generations are competitive in the global marketplace, and you need to invest in re-education, so that the indivuals whose jobs are gone can get a different job in a different industry.
(And to be fair, the US is doing these things, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appalachian_Regional_Developme.... It's just not enough.)
I'm not saying the Scandinavian countries are socialist utopias, there's definitely problems, but they don't suffer from this particular problem. When in the US, inflation-adjusted income has remained steady since the 70's for the lower half of the population, in Scandianvia, the inflation-adjusted income has risen for everyone. Yes, the gap between richest and poorest has increased as well, but as long as everyone is getting it a little bit better all the time, it's easier for society to bear.
Yes, I am aware that some people define it that way.
I see things like the hunt for Assange, (or Snowden) and am of the opinion that the more collected various governments are, the easier it is for them to prey on the divided populace.
Yea domination by elites and globalization don't theoretically have to occur together. But looking at history and the current state of the world... what do you think is more likely?
Everything is "theoretical" and "ideal" and "impossible" before it actually happens. Electronic computers were an impossibility to James Watt era engineers. Steam engines were an impossibility to the architects of the Parthenon. Raising large stone edifices was an impossibility to hunter-gatherers roaming the savanna. Yet all these things happened in due course of time.
> But looking at history and the current state of the world... what do you think is more likely?
I see a generally ascending arc, with local dips and bumps. The trends look good in the long run, although the short run is always difficult to predict.
Of course, that is not an absolute guarantee of success. Nothing is. The best case scenario is not going to happen without a lot of effort, some substantial amount of time, and likely some sacrifices along the way.
We should support things that make sense and promote the reduction of income inequality. That need not be at odds with globalization, though many businesspeople tend to push it that way since it's cheaper and good for them.
Doesn't need to be at odds with globalization, and yet all the evidence so far seems to point that way. Society is a nebulous construct of many actors. Some will try to build a more equitable future, others will not. The others are undoubtedly those who can figure out how to rise to the top. They are the ones controlling globalization efforts.
The neo-liberal dream is just that, a dream. When push comes to shove most people aren't actually for equality, they just say they are.
Exactly, thank you. The exchange felt like the opposite of it.
Shifting the center of this discussion would take too long. I'm not here to write a dissertation about the evolution of human society. I think I've hinted at how things could possibly unfold, if we make a consistent effort to better the future of the Earth. Read what I've said and that should provide some indication - unless your mind is set on "winning" a contest of punditry, in which case I wish you good luck.
TLDR: I think the best of all possible futures could be achieved through some measure of unity on a global scale, at a higher order of magnitude compared to what we have now. Inequality is one of the many obstacles on the way there. Narrow-minded nationalism is another. It would require massive changes on multiple levels, and it will not happen in a day or two. Call the end result whatever you like. But anything that could bring that future closer is a good cause to support.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complete_economic_integration
And you can see how that grows from NAFTA, GATT etc-
International cooperation can be achieved without an integrated political and economic structure. My country doesn't need to have the same economic policies and regulations as your country to live in harmony with you, or to take on international projects together like sending aid to some natural disaster, or doctors to communities that need them, or to agree in standards, or to foster academic research.
"a more integrated global political and economic structure" means 1. bodies that have political power over national governments, which would make the implementation of standard regulations easier and 2. open borders for trade. Of course a billionaire involved in a number of translational companies wants this.
As far as consolidating power goes, the US and China have some pretty big fish because their economies have been on steroids for a while. But other countries rely on national regulation to keep their national companies and local economies from being overrun by these big players. Least you know monopolies wouldn't exist only on the national level, but internationally, and then what do you do? National monopolies are a pain to get rid of, those would only be worse.
- It creates tax havens by allowing corps to claim profits in the country of their choosing. (see Apple Inc.)
- It forces workers in developed countries to compete with workers in countries that don't have adequate human rights/pay. (see Walmart)
- It wreaks havoc on the environment by overproduction and shipping.
- People in underdeveloped countries pay the price for pollution created in developed countries.
- Corporations become huge very quickly and end up having massive influence in politics of several countries.
- Countries ultimately lose their sovereignty to the shareholders of these mega-corps.
Globalization is a big tent with lots of different people in it with different motivations and priorities. The effect is mixed. It undoubtedly has accelerated growth and encouraged stability in the developing world. At the same time, it normalizes non-Western social/economic models and tends to undermine welfare states.
Not if we realize we share this planet and ought to be collectively interested in its health.
There are people in places who are happy with the way things are, and people in other places who wouldn't like it that way.
The US has many social programs, social security, subsidies, etc. People have been saying for years that these are unsustainable. The national debt has been an issue since founding 250 years ago. Some feel it weakens us. Others feel it ensures we maintain friendly relationships with neighbors.
If there were a major war right now, and the US were unable to defend its allies, the value of the dollar would tank. That keeps us and our allies concerned about each other's safety. I think that's a good thing, so long as we don't tank our economy in doing so.
Right, which is why globalization tends to undermine welfare states. TPP, the EU, trade agreements, etc. All those reduce the ability of voters to "run their country the way they want."
We already do it within the US. Items shipped out of state aren't taxed. It promotes trade and development.
Yes, it is good for moving tangible products around as you have a predictable base of regulations around them.
Moving services around gets iffy. Seen way too many companies use that to pack away profits in low tax nations while maintaining a persistent loss in "high" tax nations. This by spinning up a service company that bills for unspecified services.
And moving workers around only really work when dealing with non-industrial jobs, or all that comes out of it is "social dumping".
But try to explain that to 20-something with freshly minted degrees, laptops and credit cards.
In any case, Cayman's infrastructure was decent compared to other neighboring islands and countries. Since you asked.
Indeed many countries are selling incorporation services to stuff government coffers.
The point is that where there is a will there is a way for a governing institution to fund itself, and it by no means offers any solution for countries that are overbudget and uncompetitive in this front.
Take China. China is incredibly protectionist but it has one of the world's biggest markets; its population is huge and lately their purchasing power has been steadily increasing (aka. more disposable income to buy stuff). It's no wonder Apple, for example, has made so many strides to hit the Chinese market, but it has had to go through hoops and I bet unbelievable amounts of red tape. "a more integrated global political and economic structure" would mean less protectionist policy and less friction for overseas expansion.
I've even heard some argue that prosperity is a limited resource, and that "globalists" naively believe there's enough of it to spread around the entire planet. Obviously if you're already well off (U.S.) then there's only one direction for you to go when the spreading happens: down.
FWIW, I don't believe in this line of thinking. But, I think there are some interesting theoretical considerations that I don't fully understand. The idea of prosperity being a limited resource is, at least, interesting to think about.
Corruption or "real motives" of a global elite aside, I look at it as the difference between monolithic code bases and well designed separation of concerns. One is less prone to catastrophic failure and easier to repair when failure does occur.
Joseph Tainter I think hits the troubles with centralization right on the head.
Lets bring back a Europe with 27 different bond and stock markets in 27 different volatile currencies
Debt is denominated in currencies ... so with the current system bad borrowing behavior by one member of the currency union (Greece) would lead to devaluation of the currency to other members of the union (Germany).
Having multiple currencies is okay as long as there is liquidity between them.
That being said, centralizing currency leads to economic growth as long as the money is well spent (investment) rather than evaporated (excessive social benefits)
The bond market in that entire economic region was comparatively underdeveloped and has attracted massive liquidity improvements since 1999 stretch far out down the yield and risk curve
But yes we can write a whole dissertation on various aspects of the monetary union
Edit to clarify: in an ideal world what he stands for is right. but we're not in an idea world. where there's power there's often corruption. therefore, sooner or later the power ends up in the wrong hands. the problem is that if the world is too "integrated" and power does inevitably end up in the wrong hands at some point, there is absolutely no recourse.