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Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by nostrademons on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:32AM (#12716933)
Pretty much all of Thiel's investing thesis is to invest in things that are statistically on track to fail, but whose payoff if they succeed is greater than most people imagine. PayPal, Facebook - both of these were terrible ideas when they came out (along with a number of other ones that did, in fact, fail). His idea is that people consistently mis-price risk, and so investing in a portfolio where everyone else thinks it's a terrible idea but you have reason to believe it's a better idea than others suspect will give outsize returns. (Note: it doesn't actually have to be a good idea, it just has to be better than everyone else thinks it is.)

Supporting Trump fits perfectly into this: if he loses, he gets egg on his face (which most people will forget fairly soon) and may lose out on a little startup dealflow, but if he wins, he becomes the sole connection between the Presidential Administration and Silicon Valley. That's worth a lot more than $12.5M.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by aptwebapps on Sunday October 16, 2016 @02:28AM (#12717284)
I don't think he's investing in the hopes that Trump will pull of a long shot. I think he has a different goal in mind. He said in his speech at the RNC that the country is broken and that Trump is the only one who can fix it. I have no doubt that he believes the first part - he's said as much for a long time - but I do doubt that he really thinks Trump is the man to fix anything. Thiel may be nutty according to some, but he's not an idiot and the only thing Trump has ever been good at is self-promotion and entertainment.

I think he thinks the country is broken and _someone_ has to fix it. He's supporting Trump and investing in his campaign even at this late, seemingly forgone stage, in order to build credibility with Trump's base and conservatives in general. If he wasn't an immigrant I would think he might be aiming for the presidency himself, but he probably just wants to be an influencer or power broker.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by hacker42 on Sunday October 16, 2016 @04:43AM (#12717666)
Here is an interesting take on this matter:

> Famously, the only reason he went to seek fortune in the Silicon Valley was because he was denied a highly prestigious clerk position for a Supreme Court justice.

> It seems to me that Thiel originally wished to become a politician, and only stopped pursuing that path to seek his fortune in the Silicon Valley when he hit his first setback when applying to clerk for the Supreme Court.

Source: https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Peter-Thiel-supporting-Donald-T...

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by nostrademons on Sunday October 16, 2016 @06:02AM (#12717862)
I doubt it. Thiel's personality - in all his public appearances - has been hyper-rational, not exactly the sort who would hold onto a childhood dream for 20 years. And he's talked about how falling off that track was the best thing that ever happened to him - so much so that he now wants to help other talented college kids fall off the established track.

Also, he's not U.S. born, which disqualifies him from being president anyway. He could potentially seek some other office...but I really doubt that he would want any position that makes him just like 99 other or 434 other people.

[dead]
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by forthefuture on Sunday October 16, 2016 @11:01AM (#12718884)
Or he crushed an opponent in comical fashion after 8 years of antagonism.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by icebraining on Sunday October 16, 2016 @03:30AM (#12717488)
Considering how divisive Trump is even among the conservative base, and especially in the RNC, seems weird to support this particular candidate if what he wants is to assert himself in the republican base and party.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by adrianratnapala on Sunday October 16, 2016 @05:27AM (#12717780)
When (as seems likely) Trump loses this election, a weird new space in the Republican party. The "establishment" (whatever that is) will still be the enemy, but the rejection of any one more serious than Trump will have to go.

This will be opportune world for all kinds of right-wingers whose ideas are too extreme or too kooky to have been taken seriously before, but who are more toughtful than Trump.

In very different ways, Paul Ryan and Peter Thiel are positioning themselves for that world. As are a lot of others.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by md_ on Sunday October 16, 2016 @03:55AM (#12717546)
Maybe the point is to signal his willingness as a backer to other potential candidates.

Though I find even that a bit odd. Would people not take a pledge seriously without having seen his demonstrated willingness to lose large sums of money?

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by himynameistimli on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:27AM (#12717127)
Actually if he loses, he becomes the first investor in a ultra conservative right-wing media empire, Trump Media, which appears to already have quite a large following.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by api on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:46AM (#12717169)
I wonder if launching this media outlet is the real purpose of the campaign. It's at least more plausible than the Trump is throwing the election for Hillary conspiracy theory.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by nostrademons on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:58AM (#12717199)
He might very well have set up a "heads I win, tails I win more" gambit. If he wins the election, he's president. If he loses, he has 30 million or so passionate customers for his next business venture.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by davemel37 on Sunday October 16, 2016 @03:37AM (#12717500)
This is definitely the case...but he doesnt even need the new audience or the new venture. His entire empire is built on a name that is getting billions in free press.

The worst thing to happen to a famous brand is not bad press but rather becoming irrelevant and falling out of discussion.

Even if the Trump political brand crashes and burns, the broader trump brand of success and money just gets stronger...

This election was the ultimate win win for Trump.

This is why he can take all the risks he is taking, he has nothing to lose...which is the ultimate trump card!

Edit: spelling correction

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by md_ on Sunday October 16, 2016 @03:59AM (#12717559)
I don't buy this. What was the cost--in brand, but also in actual revenue--to losing his role in The Apprentice, losing the Macy's sales, the Miss Universe thing, etc? I expect the backlash has had real consequences.

No doubt starting a cable network is a good fallback position, but I don't buy the idea that this is all according to plan.

More likely, some in his campaign know he's going to lose and are looking for an out, while others (maybe including the candidate) still think he may win.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by davemel37 on Sunday October 16, 2016 @11:45AM (#12719109)
I don't think you can make judgement calls from short term things like the examples you gave.

His brand recognition is way up throughout the world and my experience tells me that the negative view will not translate into his business brands once his political brand is not front and center.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by NicoJuicy on Sunday October 16, 2016 @04:07AM (#12717572)
His businesses are declining in foot traffic https://medium.com/foursquare-direct/how-the-trump-president...
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by davemel37 on Sunday October 16, 2016 @11:50AM (#12719141)
Short term changes have little to do with long term brand recognition and value.

I've studied branding extensively and I think, if he loses, his presidential run will still be a net win for him and his brand once the political fallout falls out of the news cycle.

edit: changes nothing to little

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by tummler on Sunday October 16, 2016 @03:14AM (#12717440)
This is spot on. He's building an audience with the presidential bid. After he loses, he'll cry fowl, start an alt-right online news network, and spend the next 4 years complaining of a stolen election. He's enough of a draw to pull talent from The Blaze (Tomi Lahren), Breitbart, Fox News, etc. $1.25M seems like a small gamble for what could be a pretty big payoff.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by threeseed on Sunday October 16, 2016 @02:02AM (#12717214)
This is exactly what is happening.

You have the personalities in Trump and Giuliani etc. You have the news content courtesy of Brietbart. You have lifestyle content courtesy of his real estate assets e.g. golf/travel shows etc. And he already owns a TV production company that made the Apprentice.

And don't forget that Lachlan Murdoch is now firmly in charge of Fox News and has always talked about it being less alt-right and more centre-right. This will leave a massive opening for Trump in the alt-right space. The real question is whether Fox will allow it on their global cable platforms.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by AsyncAwait on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:07PM (#12719621)
You also have Roger Ailes advising Trump, if he helps him to get anywhere near Fox News size of audience, they're both big winners.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by briandear on Sunday October 16, 2016 @09:41AM (#12718544)
Ultra-conservative? Not by a long shot. I was a Ted Cruz backer and Trump to me is as bad as Clinton.

Trump isn't conservative. He's a big government populist. Completely different despite him having an 'R' next to his name.

He is about as close to Cruz as Sanders was to Clinton (in terms of policy philosophy.)

By the way, I understand downvotes because I mentioned Cruz in a positive way, however let's keep in mind that we can disagree with economic philosophy and role of government and still be friends!

I want a flat tax and a repeal of FATCA and Cruz was the only candidate that supported that. If some Democrat comes along with that proposal, they'd get my vote too.

FATCA and it's unintended consequences have caused serious harm to many Americans overseas, so that was my primary issue this election.

The only reason I support the RNC this election is because they have FATCA repeal in the platform while the Democrat side both enacted FATCA as wel as expressed support for continuing it.

Here's an article that delves deeper into FATCA if anyone is interested: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21605911...

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by rjsw on Sunday October 16, 2016 @11:55AM (#12719172)
As a foreigner, FATCA seems to be a logical reaction to the US system of taxing citizens instead of residents.

If a candidate had proposed to switch to only taxing US residents, plus apply some international pressure to close down tax havens, then I could see the point of repealing FATCA.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by AsyncAwait on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:03PM (#12719598)
> Ultra-conservative? Not by a long shot. I was a Ted Cruz backer and Trump to me is as bad as Clinton.

As bad as Trump is, at least he is not a theocrat.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by BryantD on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:18AM (#12717098)
You need to factor in the probability that Trump doesn't feel any obligation.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by 1337biz on Sunday October 16, 2016 @08:52AM (#12718381)
Perfect quote from Paul Graham here:

Others may be reassured to hear Trump has only a 15% chance of winning, but it terrifies me. In Silicon Valley 15% is a good chance.

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/786801011830628352

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by anindha on Sunday October 16, 2016 @10:46AM (#12718800)
It matters who has the most chance of winning.

If there are 10 competitors and they all have between 5-10% chance of winning you have 15%. Compared to a 15%/85% split.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by colmvp on Sunday October 16, 2016 @09:03AM (#12718418)
When it comes to a company 15% isn't too bad as you have a long time to test and figure out whether you make it. It's never just about one exact moment.

With an election it can usually be summed to important event: the vote. So that's why it doesn't terrify me at all. There's enough evidence now and in previous elections to show me he's not going to win the election. If the situation were say closer to Gore/Bush or even Romney/Obama pre-vote polling numbers, then maybe I'd be scared.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by dlss on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:39AM (#12716965)
> That's worth a lot more than $12.5M.

Agreed. (Though FWIW $1.25M is the amount he invested)

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by nostrademons on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:51AM (#12717021)
I'm assuming 1/10 probability of Trump winning. Most poll aggregators are going 1/6; I actually suspect we'll see a bigger Clinton blowout than expected, but that's just MHO.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by oska on Sunday October 16, 2016 @05:06AM (#12717735)
The Princeton Election Consortium currently has Clinton's win probability as: random drift 95%, Bayesian 98%. [1]

[1] http://election.princeton.edu/

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by CrazedGeek on Sunday October 16, 2016 @08:26AM (#12718288)
As an additional data point, 538 has Clinton at 85%: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by threeseed on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:55AM (#12717032)
From the numbers so far coming out from early voting you should add +2 to the poll margin. The Clinton ground game is looking like being more formidable than the famed Obama one. And with RNC bailing on Trump and moving money to down ballot races expect to see there being a massive discrepancy in late minute advertising and GOTV operations.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by yodsanklai on Sunday October 16, 2016 @10:28AM (#12718724)
You're assuming Thiel is acting rationally. But more likely, he's blinded by political ideology.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by devin on Sunday October 16, 2016 @02:11AM (#12717239)
1.25M, not 12.5M.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by internaut on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:46AM (#12716997)
That is one plausible interpretation but there are several layers to this. It is not a coincidence that RenTech and Thiel are supporting Trump.

I hesitate to be explicit about what I think is actually going on but if you've read my posts on the Stagnation Hypothesis or watched Peter Thiel's videos on Youtube (low view counts, so I know you're not watching them!) you'll know there is a rather disturbing big picture which most people are oblivious to.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMpmfaE9bII

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by vinhboy on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:51AM (#12717019)
I am not sure what you are saying, and I really don't want to watch that video. Can you be explicit? I want to know what you are thinking.
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by internaut on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:23AM (#12717112)
No, I can't, sorry.

It's not something that can be both summarized and understood.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMpmfaE9bII

Look this isn't really a temporary interest for me, I'm something of a 'Thiel-logist'. You know how there exist Kremlinlogists? Same thing as that. I watch every video and read every book he writes or reads. This is not some celebrity fetish, but to do with the rich vein of ideas.

This is because I am convinced something very very important is going on and I want to understand more. I think I understand about half of it and I had a holy fuck mind blown moment a few years ago. Remember how Thiel took out Gawker nearly a decade later. This is as nothing in comparison, this is the grand-daddy of all long games.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by tree_of_item on Sunday October 16, 2016 @04:37AM (#12717651)
> It's not something that can be both summarized and understood.

Ah, so it's not real then.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by AvenueIngres on Sunday October 16, 2016 @02:46AM (#12717349)
I am glad I am not the only watching those random Thiel conferences on Youtube. :-)
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by HSO on Sunday October 16, 2016 @02:50AM (#12717360)
> that RenTech and Thiel are supporting Trump.

RenTec is not supporting Trump.

Mercer is.

Simons, for what it's worth, is supporting Clinton. As, I'm almost sure, does the majority of employees. Mercer is the outlier.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by api on Sunday October 16, 2016 @01:03AM (#12717058)
Are you referring to his thesis that globalization without significant technological advance will lead to a Malthusian catastrophe?

I have considered this in wondering why he would support Trump.

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by aptwebapps on Sunday October 16, 2016 @02:33AM (#12717303)
Not interested in watching the video, but where are your posts?