News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump. Parent comment

Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by nostrademons on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:51AM (#12717021)
I'm assuming 1/10 probability of Trump winning. Most poll aggregators are going 1/6; I actually suspect we'll see a bigger Clinton blowout than expected, but that's just MHO.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by oska on Sunday October 16, 2016 @05:06AM (#12717735)
The Princeton Election Consortium currently has Clinton's win probability as: random drift 95%, Bayesian 98%. [1]

[1] http://election.princeton.edu/

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by CrazedGeek on Sunday October 16, 2016 @08:26AM (#12718288)
As an additional data point, 538 has Clinton at 85%: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Peter Thiel to Donate $1.25M in Support of Donald Trump by threeseed on Sunday October 16, 2016 @12:55AM (#12717032)
From the numbers so far coming out from early voting you should add +2 to the poll margin. The Clinton ground game is looking like being more formidable than the famed Obama one. And with RNC bailing on Trump and moving money to down ballot races expect to see there being a massive discrepancy in late minute advertising and GOTV operations.
[ Parent | on HN ]