IOW, the ability to vote is highly contested. Pressure in the opposite direction is probably necessary if we want to consider ourselves a representative democracy.

This is not how it works now.

Even without photo ID, a voter must confirm that they are registered before they are permitted to vote. At my precinct this consists of giving my full name and address, which the poll worker confirms against a list they have of currently registered voters.

If you wanted to steal my vote, you would need to know in which precinct I'm registered, then you would have to go there and give them my full name and address. Not impossible but not "anyone can walk in and vote" either.

Requiring photo ID only makes sense to people who don't understand how the voting system works now. It's very hard to mess up more than a few votes in person. It would be impossible to steal an election that way. And numerous studies of actual elections have shown that to be true.

Meanwhile, the requirement for photo ID reliably messes up the vote for hundreds of thousands of people, mostly poor and minority. Which is the whole point, of course.

That's fairly easy, too, since there is usually a direct mapping between addresses and precincts.

But to cast a fraudulent vote it takes more than doing that, it takes finding that information and using it to vote before the legitimate voter does -- and to do it undetected requires the legitimate voter not voting after you've done it, either.

To scale such an effort up to materially affect an election would be incredibly difficult to do, and easy to spot.

> If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

The DMV sucks: this is news?

Of course I don't have to _imagine_ this scenario, because it happens every year.

Real harm, happening right now vs an imaginary harm that happens so rarely we essentially have to guess what form it would take... this is an easy one.

(re: guessing what form it would take -- if we're going to imagine a fake voting threat, we can just as easily imagine that these same people have the capability to get fake licenses. That happens _all the time_, after all, in college towns across the country. Amazingly these people seem to all use their fake licenses to get a drink, and not to go vote illegally for other people. Silly them!)

This is one reason we know that in-person voter fraud is rare: because there are very few provisional ballots filed due to impersonation.

Sure. But sometimes, it seems like the "something wrong with our DMVs" isn't a separate problem, but a fairly deliberate effort to exploit the danger directly created by adding the functioning of the DMV as a dependency in the electoral process. [0]

[0] e.g., http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/alabama-dmv-closings-draw-call-fe...

Its harder to do that when they are directly making it harder for people who tend to disagree with them to vote at all.

Bingo? :)

-------

A -> B -> C

B -> C

But shitty DMV's aside, even if (A) is near negligible effort (which we'd probably both say isn't true for DMV's), then the first process will always stop people from voting compared to the second, right? no matter how "easy" (A) is. Engagement funnels FTW :)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-cou...

The summary is that by far the largest unregistered cohort is those who are young, poor, and uneducated. And this election, the poor and uneducated group is largely in Trump's camp, while in past elections they may have split roughly evenly between Republicans and Democrats depending on other issues.

The other interesting thing is that the Trump campaign has done fairly little with voter registration drives, perhaps because of this image of it largely helping Democrats. Would be an interesting example of how hewing to common wisdom rather than data can end up hurting a candidate, if 538's analysis is true.

The tricky part about using data is that it takes time to build an effective data operation. It takes time to collect the data, it takes time to analyze it, and then you need a large ground organizational effort to actually turn that data into votes. The last day for voter registration in most swing states is Oct 11, barely a week away. Even if he's recently had a change of heart, it's likely too late to do anything effective.

[1] http://elections.ap.org/content/ap-interview-trump-says-big-...

[2] http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-big-data-gamble-146939531...

[3] https://www.wired.com/2016/08/trump-cambridge-analytica/

What? This is only true if you believe that get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations are exclusive to Democrats.

Non-targeted get out the vote campaigns are always in favor of Democrats.