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Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by smallnamespace on Monday July 25, 2016 @04:47PM (#12161512)
> Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion_(psychology)

There's a good reason for this: If you gamble on something that can hurt your livelihood, then if you win you only get marginally richer, but if you lose you might not be able to feed yourself or your family.

Or to put it in a cruder way, reproductive success has strongly decreasing return to scale as a function of economic success. Bill Gates has only 3 children, even though his income is around ~300,000x that of the average American.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by dredmorbius on Monday July 25, 2016 @06:20PM (#12162044)
BG's reproductive success is a bit of an outlier by historical and even contemporary standards across cultures.

Ibn Saud, founder of the modern Kingdom of Saudi Arabian, had 45 sons alone. Such large families continue in the House of Saud.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Saud

There's the oft-cited case of Ghengis Khan, who by DNA estimates may have as many as 16 million surviving progeny. Estimates of the numbers of his actual children are quite hard to come by, and range from low (he had only one official wife) to many thousands.

Gates, in particular, is aware of several modern challenges, including overpopulation. His "reproductive success" may well be a calculated strategy for long-term advantage. Or simply altrusitic motive.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by Spooky23 on Monday July 25, 2016 @06:48PM (#12162163)
Birth control and the modern tendency to frown upon mass rape/women as property are probably primary factors to the Ghengis Khan vs Gates example.
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by dredmorbius on Monday July 25, 2016 @10:02PM (#12162923)
There was a reason I provided both ancient and current examples of high-reproductivity in dominant males.
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by cma on Wednesday July 27, 2016 @09:12PM (#12177719)
Dowry systems in Saudi Arabia are pretty far along the rapey end of the spectrum as far as consensual sexual relations go.
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by jpatokal on Monday July 25, 2016 @07:12PM (#12162270)
Genghis Khan died in 1227, meaning ~40 generations since then. If a random person sired two sons in 1227, and each of them had two offspring in each generation who in turn had children, that's 2^40 = 1e12 progeny today.
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by btilly on Monday July 25, 2016 @08:09PM (#12162472)
They mean surviving progeny with his DNA. After 7 generations, most of your descendants are not actually genetically related to you.

By contrast current estimates are that about 0.5% of the world has a y-chromosome descended from a relatively close ancestor of Genghis Khan. (When his horde burst out, both he and his male relatives took advantage of "mating opportunities".)

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descent_from_Genghis_Khan#DNA_... for more.

A side note. His y-chromosome would have benefited more than his other chromosomes since many of his sons, grandsons and other direct male descendants also had good breeding opportunities. Those men had his y-chromosome, but not all of his other chromosomes.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by thaumasiotes on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @06:48AM (#12164666)
Your very own numbers should immediately tell you that they're useless, since there aren't 1e12 people today. What's the point of comparing Genghis Khan's empirical reproductive record to a hypothetical, known-to-be-impossible, known-to-be-not-even-slightly-related-to-what-could-have-theoretically-happened reproductive record?
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by hammock on Monday July 25, 2016 @06:14PM (#12162014)
Hes not saying that there's not good reason for it...

It's a fact of life that you have to play to win. The richest in history took extraordinary risks to get there, and for every winning risktaker there were 10 losing risktakers.

This also goes hand in hand with why hard work and perseverance are virtues.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by tw04 on Monday July 25, 2016 @09:31PM (#12162806)
> The richest in history took extraordinary risks to get there

Not exactly accurate. Bill Gates may have dropped out of college to pursue Microsoft, but that was hardly an extraordinary risk. His parents were extremely well off, and had that adventure been a failure, he simply would've gone back to school and completed his degree. Same thing with Zuckerberg.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by akiselev on Monday July 25, 2016 @10:11PM (#12162955)
Without 20/20 hindsight it was absolutely a huge risk. What if Microsoft had failed after five or ten years? He would have lost all of the time he could have spent earning a college degree and developing/working his network. Given that his parents were well off and he went to Harvard of all places, that is an insane opportunity risk to the vast majority of people if they didn't know that their efforts would become one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by adamlett on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @05:49AM (#12164454)
You are missing the forest for the trees.

You are ignoring that Bill Gates had to come from an extraordinarily privileged position to even be able to incur such a large opportunity cost. Most people don't have the opportunity to not to finish a Harvard degree, because most people don't have the opportunity to go to Harvard to begin with.

You are also ignoring that even if Microsoft had failed after a 10 years, the act of founding and running it would likely have afforded him experience that would rival in value a Harvard degree. This makes it doubtful that the opportunity cost was actually very large.

Furthermore, when you talk about how large the risk was, you play fast and loose with relative and absolute sizes. It may be true that Bill Gates took a large risk in absolute terms, but because of his background, the risk was actually not that big in relative terms. Not any larger than the risk of someone else choosing one education instead of another, or one career over another.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by tw04 on Monday July 25, 2016 @11:21PM (#12163129)
Given that he had a multi-million dollar trust-fund, I would imagine he either would've spent his days living off that and doing whatever work interested him most, or just continued on with his career at a roughly 5-year deficit to that of his peers. With a Harvard degree I'm quite confident he would've managed to get by.
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by akiselev on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @12:55AM (#12163414)
Except, you know, he wouldn't have a Harvard degree if he dropped out, he'd have no career, he'd be bleeding money out of his trust fund, he wouldn't continue developing the very valuable network or pedigree during his remaining years at Harvard, and he'd be stuck with knowledge that wasn't as valuable then as it is now. That's how opportunity costs work.

We're not talking about whether he'd "get by," that's irrelevant. We're talking about relative risks assuming that Microsoft didn't succeed.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by Zafira on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @02:44AM (#12163753)
People want to believe that there's some sacrifice...some payment made for people like Bill Gates to have earned their wealth.

I think Bill Gates is a great businessman and he has worked for his wealth, but let us not be delusional. The son of a well-respected Seattle lawyer from a long-standing Seattle family that could afford to send their kid to the most prestigious school in Seattle was never going to have issues having a comfortable career by going with "Plan B".

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by akiselev on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @05:31AM (#12164385)
An opportunity cost is literally a sacrifice by definition. Bill Gates made a choice to start Microsoft instead of finishing school so there was clearly one opportunity that he rejected and one that he followed. It's not "payment," it's a fact that he chose one path and due to the universal law of causality had to give up one opportunity for another. If Microsoft hadn't succeeded he would have been left empty handed. That's the very definition of risk.

The only delusion in this thread is the idea that Bill Gates took no risk when he decided to drop out of Harvard and start a company with the goal of ushering in the age of personal computing. I'm not comparing him to a starving African child, I'm just pointing out that he took a risk just like every entrepreneur on the planet.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by pbhjpbhj on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @06:57AM (#12164712)
When people say "he's rich, it wasn't a risk for him" they're really saying that the person wasn't risking their well-being. They're not saying that person didn't risk something else, such as employability; but employability is unimportant to someone in that position whilst for another person it's vital.

So yes, technically you're right, but your argument is missing the vital essence of what people mean when they say, eg, "Bill Gates wasnt taking a risk".

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by animal531 on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @07:27AM (#12164824)
I stopped working for N months to build an indie game (which eventually didn't go anywhere). That was a risk and had an associated cost (N months of lost salary, expenses, growth etc).

But because of my skills I had no problem getting back into a normal development job afterward.

That means that my risk was a lot less than someone who would lose everything if their plan didn't work out; the same goes for him. His risk was negligible.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by tw04 on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @10:52AM (#12166014)
It turns out if you drop out of school, and decide you want to go back, they let you back in.

As for "bleeding money out of his trust fund" - you do realize, short of developing a 6-figure coke habit, he could've lived off the interest for the rest of his life QUITE comfortably, right?

His relative risk was nearly 0. He was going to live, at worst, an upper middle class lifestyle regardless of the success or failure of Microsoft.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by imtringued on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @08:45AM (#12165189)
>he wouldn't continue developing the very valuable network or pedigree during his remaining years at Harvard, and he'd be stuck with knowledge that wasn't as valuable then as it is now.

Except this is not a black and white matter, nothing is stopping him from going back to college except time and money of which he already had enough. I'm pretty sure his parents had a contingency plan in case his company failed.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by kragen on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @04:21PM (#12168490)
Getting in a boat with your two children to escape Syria by crossing the Mediterranean, that's absolutely a huge risk. There's a substantial chance, say 4%, that the boat will sink, and all of you will die, within a few days after you choose to take that risk. Even if you get across, you may be sent back to Syria to die.

By contrast, not getting a Harvard degree and maybe having to spend an extra year or two for a degree from a lesser university, that's absolutely not a huge risk. It's like the ultimate non-huge risk.

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by vintermann on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @03:34AM (#12163914)
> The richest in history took extraordinary risks to get there

First of all, in real terms, no they didn't. In monetary terms maybe, but poor people take bigger risks all the time.

It is true, though, that the richest of the rich take bigger risks than their peers, and bigger risks than are arguably sensible. This is the difference between the "nouveau riche" and old money.

In terms of securing the level of consumption they're used to, and usually in terms of happiness, rich people are better off playing it safe, and most do. But some rich people may just have borderline pathological need to prove themselves, and buy metaphorical "lottery tickets". It makes sense that the richest individuals of the rich come from the group of those who take "dumb" risks that happen to pay off (I'm thinking Steve Jobs, Elon Musk etc.)

Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by ramparrt on Monday July 25, 2016 @08:43PM (#12162608)
only 10?
Re:Humans once opposed coffee and refrigeration: why we ofte... by thaumasiotes on Tuesday July 26, 2016 @06:44AM (#12164651)
> Or to put it in a cruder way, reproductive success has strongly decreasing return to scale as a function of economic success. Bill Gates has only 3 children, even though his income is around ~300,000x that of the average American.

This is a recent coincidence. Bill Gates could easily have 300,000 times the reproductive success he's expected to have. It's not a priority for him.