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Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by yummyfajitas on Friday February 19, 2016 @10:25AM (#11133941)
Consumption smoothing is a perfectly valid use of debt.

Suppose I have utility = log(consumption), but my income is volatile. If I have 1 income in year 1 but 10 income in year 2, and use no credit, my utility is log(1)+log(10) = 2.3.

If I use credit, I can have utility log(5.5 / (1+r)), with r the interest rate. At 10% interest, that's 3.2. At 20% interest that's 3.0. At 50% interest that's 2.6.

So even at 50% interest I'm increasing my utility by 10% due to the use of credit.

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by _yosefk on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:06AM (#11134300)
I suspect that the average person - actually, make it 99.5% of the people - is better off with advice along the lines of "if you can possibly help it, don't get into debt to buy anything that can't be used to make enough money to offset the interest, and be very careful even " then "get into debt as long as the utility offsets the interest."

I think so because I doubt that most people (regardless of how good they are at math) can trust their current selves to compare utility from consumption to disutility from having to pay back (meaning that their future self will often disagree strongly with their current self.) This is not to say that someone else should be trusted with decisions about savings and loans other than the saver/borrower (forcing someone to put money into a pension fund on the grounds that they're irrational and then not really paying the pension back is a bit too common for my taste), just that "by default, don't get into debt" is good advice.

More generally, IMO quite often clever utilitarian maximization works worse than simple rules designed to keep you out of trouble first, and seek "utility" later. (I guess I don't quite believe in people being utility-seeking machines, not to mention ones having stable preferences, nor do I believe that a person is truly better off having achieved more utility per unit of time.)

I realize it's not a satisfactory argument, of course, if one does believe in utility maximization as a good way to think about these things, and I really wish I could back this up so it's more than a hunch...

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by cperciva on Friday February 19, 2016 @10:36AM (#11134025)
If I use credit, I can have utility log(5.5 / (1+r)), with r the interest rate. At 10% interest, that's 3.2. At 20% interest that's 3.0. At 50% interest that's 2.6.

Correct idea, incorrect math. The optimum is found with (11+r)/(2 + 2r) consumption in year 1 and (11+r)/2 consumption in year 2, for a total utility of 2 log(11+r) - 2 log(2) - log(1+r); at (10%, 20%, 50%) interest rates this yields (3.33, 3.26, 3.09) total utility.

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by yummyfajitas on Friday February 19, 2016 @10:40AM (#11134058)
Good catch, I wildly oversimplified. That's what I get for doing arithmetic before coffee.

Key idea is that since utility is concave, smoothing it out is a win. Now just trade off the gains from smoothing against the losses from financing, and you are golden.

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by infinite8s on Friday February 19, 2016 @10:52AM (#11134172)
Why is utility modeled concavely?
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by yummyfajitas on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:03AM (#11134272)
My utility from eating (in one time period) $800 worth of food is less than 2 x utility of eating $400 worth of food. Doubling my consumption doesn't double my happiness.

Concavity is a way of formalizing this intuition; it means, roughly speaking, that f(2x) <= 2f(x).

Econ uses log(x) as a simple model, but the same idea would apply to any convex function albeit with different arithmetic.

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by infinite8s on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:15AM (#11134350)
Thanks, that makes sense. I guess that's why flat income tax rates are considered "unfair" since they are modeled on a linear expectation of utility.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by cperciva on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:40AM (#11134549)
Not really. Completely flat percentage taxes (e.g., pay 10% of every dollar you earn) reduce everybody's utility by the same amount if you have a utility = log(dollars) model. Actual "flat taxes" (e.g., pay 10% of every dollar you earn after the first $10k) have a larger impact on the utility of high income earners (at high incomes you approach a change of log(0.9), while at low incomes the impact of the tax on utility reaches zero).

This is however an argument for poll taxes (e.g., "every adult must pay $1000") being unfair, as well as sales taxes on inferior goods (warning: technical term) if the regressive effects aren't compensated by a quasi-fixed-dollar tax rebate.

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by tunesmith on Friday February 19, 2016 @04:25PM (#11136747)
I don't understand this. If the utility of money is roughly logarithmic, then that would imply the most fair tax bracketing would be a logarithmic curve. An example would be the "logarithmic flat tax" I see mentioned sometimes - figure out how many times above the poverty rate you make, log-10 it, and multiply by some flat constant (they usually recommend 9 or 10). If you plug in a middle-class earner's revenue to that formula, their effective tax rate is far lower than it would be under any flat tax I've seen mentioned. Flat tax in comparison is very regressive.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by evanpw on Friday February 19, 2016 @09:02PM (#11138279)
Logarithmic utility of money implies that the last X% of your income is worth the same amount of utility, regardless of what your income is: log(x) - log[(1 - r)x] = log(x) - log(1 - r) - log(x) = -log(1 - r). But "does the same harm to every person" is not necessarily the right definition of "fair" in the context of taxes, though.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by tunesmith on Sunday February 21, 2016 @12:05AM (#11143382)
Can you expand on that? What is x, what is r?

And you are saying that the last 5% of a millionaire's income has the same utility as the last 5% of a different person's income that makes 25k/year?

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by mafribe on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:34AM (#11134496)
Why are you sure that for you, $800 worth of food is less than 2 x utility of eating $400 worth of food? How would you convince somebody who thinks you are wrong (e.g. deluding yourself, or not telling the truth)?
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by whitegrape on Friday February 19, 2016 @05:47PM (#11137328)
It doesn't seem like it would apply for all instances and combinations of food. For me, I've had a $90 porterhouse, which was truly delicious, and was indeed worth more (not less) than if I had gotten one $45 alternative cut to eat then and a second one to take home. But extrapolated out for other food / time scales / diet preferences, buying two 5 pound packs of bacon for $40 gives me a lot more utility than $80 worth of pepperoni bits which are quite a bit more expensive per pound but very convenient as a ready-to-eat snack.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by ksdale on Friday February 19, 2016 @01:24PM (#11135380)
You could ask them to buy twice as much food as they normally would every time they go to a restaurant or the grocery store. They can either eat until they feel uncomfortable and gain weight or they can start throwing a ton of food away, either way the utility per dollar spent goes way down past a certain point.

Note that this assumes that you are already able to spend an optimal amount on food.

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by dagw on Friday February 19, 2016 @04:08PM (#11136639)
You're assuming that 'food' is a single fungible commodity. Spending twice as much on food doesn't mean buying twice as much food, it could also mean buying better quality food and going to higher quality restaurants. I could easily both double and triple my current food spending without eating more or wasting food.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by squeaky-clean on Friday February 19, 2016 @04:57PM (#11136947)
But taste/enjoyment isn't the only purpose of food. You're doubling enjoyment, but not doubling the utility.

If I gave you the choice of only eating $1 of Cup-Noodles every day for 30 days ($30 total), or one single $300 meal at a high class restaurant, and nothing for 29 days, which is the smarter choice?

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by c22 on Friday February 19, 2016 @02:21PM (#11135857)
What if you asked them to buy half as much food? Would their default mode be less than twice as good as starving?
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by mjevans on Friday February 19, 2016 @05:30PM (#11137207)
In America, it is actually surprisingly difficult to buy 'half as much food' at many places. Most mid-scale (Approx 10-30 USD/plate) restaurants attempt to convince you the service is worth the price by giving you far too much food (and also not paying their employees enough either; hence tips, which BTW I'd be inclined to stop paying in 'living minimum wage' cities (15+/hr)).
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by nordsieck on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:00AM (#11134238)
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by TJSomething on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:01AM (#11134245)
Due to the Law of diminishing marginal utility.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by imgabe on Friday February 19, 2016 @01:18PM (#11135317)
In the scenario where you can predict with certainty that your income will increase by tenfold in one year, sure, that's rational. That is not a realistic situation for most people.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by navait on Friday February 19, 2016 @10:32AM (#11134000)
While that's a valid point, the parent was speaking in generalities across most people - given that most people have consistent incomes from wages, do they really need consumption smoothing?
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by carlob on Friday February 19, 2016 @10:36AM (#11134024)
Correct, but a bit misleading. You're taking a person that has income that increases tenfold over a year. For most people the rate of increase of income is smaller than credit card interest rates, and you can really justify high interest rates when you assume that you're going to make a lot of money next year, but then again Steinbeck said that most Americans think of themselves as temporarily embarrassed millionaires :)
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by yummyfajitas on Friday February 19, 2016 @10:43AM (#11134086)
Probably "year" is the wrong time period, but lots of people have very volatile income. A consultant can easily have 10x variance in income from month to month. A musician or actor might have 0 gigs one month and 5 gigs the next.

Shortening the time period just lowers the financing costs.

Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by carlob on Friday February 19, 2016 @11:29AM (#11134454)
True, but still how many broke musicians and actors should be considering this month's zero income a fluctuation and get into credit card debt and how many should just be more conservative with their spending?
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by yummyfajitas on Friday February 19, 2016 @02:49PM (#11136074)
If you look at my example, the person with peak income of $10 spent a bit under $5.5/month. Both time periods were "fluctuations" from his average income of $5.5.
Re:Why Don't People Manage Debt Better? by carlob on Friday February 19, 2016 @07:47PM (#11137986)
Yeah but the first one was 1 the second was 10, not the other way around. After one month at 1 how do you know you're going to average out at 5.5?