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Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by themartorana on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:40PM (#10959397)
Just came here to say that the tired argument that UBI "start[s] creating some pretty powerful disincentives to work" is really just old at this point. What someone that trots that out is saying is that more people would be able to forgo wasting their lives in menial jobs and instead create art and new businesses, or stay home to raise a family or care for elderly parents, as if either of those is somehow morally wrong or shameful.

There will still be incentive to working - cars and houses and jewelry and iPhones and etc and etc will still cost money, likely above what a basic income gives you (except for the most basic apartment and car maybe). But people will be able to choose to not work in deplorable conditions or for terrible wages or for below minimum wage because tips, and won't have to live in constant fear of losing a minimum wage job and losing the leaky roof above their family's heads, or going bankrupt when your kid breaks his arm.

When people claim UBI will disincentivize working, they mean disincentivize being taken advantage of by a system meant to keep them under foot and under served - and that not willingly participating in such a system is somehow morally reprehensible. Which I find morally reprehensible.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by strictnein on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:47PM (#10959436)
Sorry, but I don't feel like paying more in taxes so that people can "create art" and take care of their own families. When did it become my responsibility to work harder so that they can do that?

Taking care of my family involves me working hard, so why are you willing to make me work harder so that others can work less?

An no one thinks taking care of your own family is shameful or morally wrong. Taking more money from me to pay you to take care of your family, on the other hand, is morally wrong.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by themartorana on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:57PM (#10959496)
Answers like this consider a society of one (or one plus family) and doesn't comprehend how the health and well being of a society directly correlates to the health and well being of the one.

But put that aside for a second. You also get this basic income, which is basically just printed money, so your taxes aren't helping someone else create art with UBI (but they sure are now, in actual reality). Your moral outrage about someone "creating art" as though it's less hard than your job is laughable, and oh by the way, your reward is income far above UBI, so you exist on a different financial plane for your hard work anyway.

But lower crime and happier people and less burden on courts and properly fed kids that lead to a better educated generation and less terrible schools in inner cities and every other benefit you receive from basic income and not one ounce of your "hard work" is just a step too far for you?

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by aklemm on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:48PM (#10959744)
An excellent answer. It's alarming how easy it is for young, childless, well-off people to simply not have any capacity to understand these points. I say that having been such a person, so it really is sad how long it can take to learn such lessons!
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by LyndsySimon on Saturday January 23, 2016 @04:37PM (#10960215)
It seems like you're projecting your own bias onto those who disagree with you. What makes you think the GP is young, childless, and well-off?

I oppose this, and I certainly don't fit your preconception.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by aklemm on Saturday January 23, 2016 @05:04PM (#10960334)
You'd be right if I said all young people feel that way and all parents above a certain age felt my way. But I didn't say that, and I don't believe that. To rephrase: it is alarming the rate at which young, childless, and well-off do not support family-centric public policy.

Do you make a distinction between "projecting" and simply having an opinion? I do.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by LyndsySimon on Tuesday January 26, 2016 @05:49PM (#10976864)
You said "It's alarming how easy it is for <group>" - that does not imply that you are alarmed at the rate at which something occurs, but that you believe that the condition is an attribute of group membership.

My sincere apologies if I've misread your intent, but it certainly seems to me that you've taken a viewpoint with which you don't identify, and assigned it to a group with which you also don't identify.

If you have any evidence that young, childless, well-off people tend to hold these beliefs, I'd love to see it.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by strictnein on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:59PM (#10959798)
Answers like this would make sense if we didn't already spend billions and billions a year to address those exact topics, or if I was saying we shouldn't have any welfare programs at all.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by AnthonyMouse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @07:21PM (#10960822)
> Answers like this would make sense if we didn't already spend billions and billions a year to address those exact topics, or if I was saying we shouldn't have any welfare programs at all.

But then your argument doesn't make any sense because it applies more to means-tested programs than UBI, because working can't cause you to lose the UBI.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by dllthomas on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:32PM (#10960639)
"which is basically just printed money"

This is not the case for most proposals I have seen.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by strictnein on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:38PM (#10959702)
So we're just printing all this money? Wow. I can't see anything wrong with that. If it's that easy, let's start at $1 million a person per month. We'll all be rich!
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by saulrh on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:06PM (#10959543)
> When did it become my responsibility to work harder so that they can do that?

That's the thing - it isn't and won't be. Basic Income is designed for, and in fact only works in, civilizations with enough excess productivity that they don't have to have their entire population working their assess off to maintain homeostasis and well-being. The USA is just about to get there. Some of the Nordic countries were there probably five or six years ago. There's a reason they're implementing it before us.

BI isn't "so that people can sit on their couches and do nothing all day while I support them". BI is so that people aren't required to have jobs to survive. Because when your civilization has sufficiently efficient per-person production, you end up with an issue where you're not just overprovisioned, but so overprovisioned that companies must start laying off large portions of the population to avoid wasting money hiring uselessly overproductive employees. At which point you end up with 30% or 60% unemployment and you have to choose between letting a third of your population starve or implementing something like BI.

That's the situation. BI isn't here to make it your responsibility to support everybody. BI is here because it's become so easy for people to support others that the economy, which up until now has assumed that there'll never be enough support to go around, has fallen apart. It's set up so that you can choose to support others instead of taking care of your family, and still have everything make sense.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Saturday January 23, 2016 @04:48PM (#10960266)
The case needs to made that we're at this stage. And high unemployment is a result of the financial crisis, not over production.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by AnthonyMouse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:00PM (#10960528)
There is no "this stage" -- a basic income provides a smaller disincentive to work than providing low income people with the same amount in mean-tested welfare programs, because you don't lose the basic income when you get a job. If you're in a society that can afford welfare programs at all then it can afford the equivalent basic income.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Saturday January 23, 2016 @07:29PM (#10960849)
1. Basic income would need to be more than welfare, if people can't live completely off welfare easily. 2. Many people oppose welfare that doesn't require a job precisely because of the societal costs to the disincentive to work.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by AnthonyMouse on Sunday January 24, 2016 @09:24AM (#10962558)
> 1. Basic income would need to be more than welfare, if people can't live completely off welfare easily.

Who says you need to be able to live completely off of it?

> 2. Many people oppose welfare that doesn't require a job precisely because of the societal costs to the disincentive to work.

So we're getting rid of all the programs that don't then? Requiring someone to work to receive benefits is unbelievably easy to scam anyway because two people can just hire each other to watch television and have the payments cancel.

It is possible to make the argument that there should be no social assistance at all. But that isn't the status quo, and the argument cannot be made that the status quo is better than a basic income.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Sunday January 24, 2016 @10:28AM (#10962742)
>Who says you need to be able to live completely off of it?

I thought the argument for basic income is that it could support someone without the need for a job. If it can't, then that's not what I've been discussing.

>Requiring someone to work to receive benefits is unbelievably easy to scam anyway because two people can just hire each other to watch television and have the payments cancel.

"Illegal thing X cannot be enforced, therefore X should be legal" is an invalid argument.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by AnthonyMouse on Sunday January 24, 2016 @11:02AM (#10962848)
> I thought the argument for basic income is that it could support someone without the need for a job. If it can't, then that's not what I've been discussing.

The amount is independent of the thing. You could have a basic income of $5000/year and it would still work better than $5000/year in means-tested welfare. You could have a basic income of $50,000/year but that is probably inadvisable. What probably makes the most sense is to replace existing welfare at approximately the same level and then collect data on how that works to decide the best amount in the long-term. (But $12,000/year is probably in the ballpark.)

> "Illegal thing X cannot be enforced, therefore X should be legal" is an invalid argument.

How is it an invalid argument? Passing unenforceable laws is futile and stupid. It fosters disrespect for the law and gives advantage to people willing to break the law when they know they can get away with it.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Sunday January 24, 2016 @11:45AM (#10962990)
> You could have a basic income of $5000/year and it would still work better than $5000/year in means-tested welfare.

But BI of $5000 costs far more, because anyone can get it. You'd need to reduce the amount to keep costs the same, at which the argument that it's better becomes weaker.

>How is it an invalid argument? Passing unenforceable laws is futile and stupid. It fosters disrespect for the law and gives advantage to people willing to break the law when they know they can get away with it.

If it's difficult but possible to break the law and get away with it, then laws and some enforcement deters breaking the law. E.g. it's pretty easy to get alcohol under 21 and cigarettes under 18 , but the age laws make it harder than if there were no laws, which reduces the amount of underage drinking/smoking. If you agree that's a good thing, then the law is good insofar as it encourages that.

Or in the welfare example, it's not easy to scam welfare, it takes time, organization, etc. Many people who would never try to scam welfare would sign up for basic income, because it's official and there's no risk of getting caught.

Of course, it depends on the ease of scamming, the benefit, etc, but the general argument of "unenforcable->make it legal" is invalid unless accompanied by those arguments.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by acdha on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:59PM (#10959795)
> Taking care of my family involves me working hard, so why are you willing to make me work harder so that others can work less?

Because when you decide you'd like to launch a startup, you don't want the failure mode to be “I lose my house and live out of my car”.

Because in a year when you or a family member develops a debilitating disease, you'd want there to be an option available which is better than “I go bankrupt and end up on the street”.

Because if you or a family member decides they want to switch careers, go back to school, etc. you'd like food, health care, etc. not to be a major source of stress unless you're independently wealthy.

Because if you or a family member ends up in a bad relationship and needs to leave in a hurry, the answer isn't hoping there's room at a shelter because all of the landlords in town want a deposit or there's a year delay getting the subsidized child-care needed to actually be able to get a job.

Most of the people in the United States who go bankrupt were willing to work hard and didn't think that would happen to them. That went well until they had medical bills, a major employer left the area, etc. and they either couldn't work or were unable to find a job. People like to say you should keep 6-12 months income in the bank, which is certainly great advice but even if you're one of the relatively fortunate people who can afford to save that much money it can disappear faster than expected if more than one thing goes wrong at a time.

As a society we've decided we don't want to live in a world where poor people die on the street (or are forced into terrible jobs, begging, prostitution, etc.). The problem UBI tries to solve is that the existing systems are incomplete, often create bad incentives, and require hugely expensive bureaucracies to review people at every step of the way. Providing a consistent income to everyone avoids things like someone getting the support they need to get a job, working hard and then having it all fall apart when they get a raise which is large enough to disqualify them from housing/child-care support but not large enough to replace it.

It doesn't get rid of the incentive to do more, however, unless you really think that most people in society will hit the basic minimums needed for life and never want nicer food, housing, entertainment, etc.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by overgard on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:03PM (#10959527)
Your premise relies on the idea that without the (rather severe) consequence of becoming homeless, people will not be inclined to work. I just don't buy it. I don't think that if you remove the draconian consequences of not working a shitty job, that people will suddenly just sit at home and watch jeopardy all day.

And the people that would sit at home watching jeopardy all day regardless -- would you really want to employ them? This probably won't be a well received idea, but not every person is actually economically useful, at least not in the current system. Unemployment is high because to a certain extent, there's probably 5-10% of the population that most companies look at and go "yeah, we probably don't need that".

I'm not saying scarcity no longer exists, but the US government literally sets excess grain on fire to subsidize farmers. When people starve to death, its not because we don't have enough food, it's because the food doesn't make it to the people that need it. Our biggest societal health problem is that people are getting too fat.

The whole "you need to work for the food you eat" system is based on a context that hasn't existed in first world countries for quite a while.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by svalorzen on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:05PM (#10959535)
> Taking care of my family involves me working hard, so why are you willing to make me work harder so that others can work less?

Nobody would make you do anything. You'd make exactly the same as other people. If taking care of your family for you means giving a certain standard of living, you'd certainly get a higher standard of living since you are working and getting more money than other people. Otherwise, if you're content with the bottom line you can just stop working and coast along.

> Taking more money from me to pay you to take care of your family, on the other hand, is morally wrong.

Can you stop thinking in terms of money for just one second? In the Middle Ages there were around 80-90% farmers in order to feed everyone. Now we need less than 5%. Sure, now there are new jobs, like making phones, travel, and millions of other things. But the other things nobody needs to be alive. Thus, why would we not take advantage from this huge technological advance by giving everyone enough money to eat, since making food is now so incredibly cheap? And if people stop working because of that, well, maybe they don't give enough shits about smartphones and they were there just to make a perverse economy to work. It's not about those things. It's about food and a roof - both things we can make in an incredibly cheap and automated way (we can 3d print houses, would you have ever believed it??).

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by damon_c on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:53PM (#10959481)
You could look at the idea of people creating art, new business, making movies as something that you and your family could benefit from.

Art, one could argue, is the whole point isn't it? Otherwise, what else do we as a species leave behind?

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by strictnein on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:42PM (#10959724)
People have things called hobbies. I have several, but I don't expect to be paid for them. I do them during my free time.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by Frondo on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:50PM (#10959751)
Happily, what we're now talking about is a matter of policy, not of principle.

You don't feel like paying taxes so that our society can support artists, fine. You might not feel like paying taxes to maintain rural roads (after all, you never drive there) or a public education system (you can pay for your kids' schooling). And that's all fine, but you're already doing all that, just in a relatively clumsy way.

"Taking more money from" you to support my family is something that taxes and society have done from the very start.

This just shifts the bar a bit further. It's a matter of degree and not of kind.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by strictnein on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:58PM (#10959787)
Nope, I happily pay money for schools, roads, government, police, etc. I vote for almost every tax increase that comes to the ballot. I do understand why people keep trying to make this argument because it's far more effective than the "let's pay people to make art and not do unfun jobs" argument.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by Frondo on Saturday January 23, 2016 @03:50PM (#10960033)
Well, great, then it really won't be much of a stretch to add one more tax, this one to ensure that everyone has a basic guaranteed income!
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by SolarNet on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:03PM (#10959524)
Basic income creates a more robust consumer base with fewer workers, allowing you to get better jobs from your willingness to work. You won't have to work harder, your wages will go up because you are willing to work at all.

Also you would likely pay the same taxes. Remember the system gives you (and bill gates) money too. But still taxes on income. If you're making over 150k, then yea maybe you might pay more for this system. On the other hand you already control more resources than 99% of the people in the world.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by js8 on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:26PM (#10959635)
Why it would be your responsibility to work harder? In fact, you could also decide to work less.

Your comment is based on misunderstanding of what actually is money. Money is just a claim for some commodity, like resources or work; it's not a commodity in itself. From microeconomic perspective it is interchangeable, but not from the macroeconomic one.

In fact, under UBI, someone may decide to pay you more money exactly because you're willing to work hard. If you really have the choice of not working, you will have to be more incentivized (with money) to actually work.

In reality, UBI is just a different money redistribution scheme (compared to capital investment), nothing changes much for people who work. It won't however make the people who invest and live from rent (capitalists) very happy, because they will get less of the pie to compete for.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by strictnein on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:37PM (#10959696)
It would be my responsibility to work harder because all of this money has to come from somewhere. It doesn't just come from the magic money tree, it comes from people who work.

No one is going to pay me more under UBI than I earn now because I work harder. I already get paid to work hard.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by aninhumer on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:58PM (#10959790)
>It would be my responsibility to work harder because all of this money has to come from somewhere.

You don't work because it's your responsibility to make the economy function. You work because people give you incentives to do so. UBI just changes the incentives slightly: You can choose whether you want the minimum or whether you want to earn some luxuries.

You can argue about how many people are going to take the latter choice, but it's ludicrous to suggest you would be forced towards it by your "responsibility" to the economy.

>No one is going to pay me more under UBI than I earn now because I work harder.

If lots of people stop working, then those who continue to do so will become a lot more valuable, and companies will have to pay them more as a result.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by varelse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @03:32PM (#10959947)
I mostly agree and I find that most of the arguments put forth in favor of UBI seem relatively narcissistic in nature (Your startup fails and you end up on the street? Yeah, not my problem actually, nor would it be my problem if you spent your entire paycheck on losing powerball tickets etc).

That said, I think Martin Ford has made a decent case towards imposing an automation tax to fund the UBI for displaced workers. And I agree 100% that the only way this is remotely viable is in a society where there is insanely excess productive capacity such as what is likely to happen with the automation of jobs.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by acdha on Saturday January 23, 2016 @05:31PM (#10960428)
> I find that most of the arguments put forth in favor of UBI seem relatively narcissistic in nature (Your startup fails and you end up on the street? Yeah, not my problem actually, nor would it be my problem if you spent your entire paycheck on losing powerball tickets etc).

I look at this from a different angle: right now, startups skew heavily towards founders with significant risk-tolerance (young, healthy, good educations, family money, business connections, often partnered with someone who also has high-income career options, etc.) for whom the worst-case outcome is probably something like taking a job at BoringCorp and hanging out in cube-ville until they build up their reserves.

There's nothing wrong with that but there's an argument that society is missing out on a lot of ideas which won't grow out of that fairly homogenous subculture. If we provide a basic cushion, it makes it less intimidating for someone from a less comfortable background to take a chance. That could be particularly beneficial to society: someone coming up with some business ideas which are viable in, say, a factory town or agriculture has the potential to affect a lot of people who are largely ignored by Silicon Valley culture.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by varelse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:23PM (#10960606)
I've been ahead of the curve a couple times and I've crashed and burned because of it only to see someone else do essentially the same thing 5 or so years later and knock it out of the park. That's bad luck and bad timing IMO not some social injustice. Anyone with talent these days can soft land into BoringCorp IMO. We're not exactly swimming in talent.

I'm not far from taking another swing these days and I think the time I've taken to develop financial cushioning has also let me develop better skills to analyze both the nature and the timing of the sort of businesses I wish to pursue.

And if you have kids, that's your startup, take 'em to IPO. They're worth far more than $$$.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by aninhumer on Saturday January 23, 2016 @04:00PM (#10960065)
>Your startup fails and you end up on the street? Yeah, not my problem

It kind of is though. The cost of making failure painful is all the potential innovators who decide to get a safe job instead.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by varelse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @04:48PM (#10960264)
Utterly false dichotomy. You can innovate from a safe job(tm) as well (not that any job is safe in an age of at-will employment). The difference is that in exchange for a lower payout for success, one gets a much higher payout for failure, a sort of UBI if you will.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by overgard on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:25PM (#10960615)
Sure, you can innovate in a safe job. And then your employer likely owns it. Good for them!

That's not a criticism of corporations, just pointing out that taking a risk and striking out on your own isn't necessarily a reckless decision.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by varelse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:42PM (#10960666)
Yes, they own it, in exchange for protecting you from the 90% chance of failure (perhaps you should save your best ideas for when you've acquired enough resources to build it on your own? I don't, ideas are cheap, it's the executions on those ideas that has built value for me).

And I don't think startups are reckless, but I think a lot of the people that join them fail to do rudimentary financial calculations as to whether doing so has a better expected return than a safe(tm) job.

Otherwise, they wouldn't accept chicken scratchings worth of lottery tickets and 20-50% lower compensation. But yet they do, over and over, no matter how many people lay it out how bad an idea this usually is.

https://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2012/07/08/dont-waste-y...

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by overgard on Saturday January 23, 2016 @07:04PM (#10960764)
How noble of those large corporations to save you from yourself!

So, basically, your point is that you should sneakily hide your best ideas from your employers and then strike out on your own when you hit that magical amazing idea! You know, that idea that is obviously going to be an amazing success and you can know that ahead of time! People that foolishly try to succeed on their own time are rubes! Instead of accepting a check from the government, you should mail it in with a job you're entirely checked out of until you find the magical secret sauce to make yourself a billionaire. That's great for everyone right?

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by aninhumer on Saturday January 23, 2016 @05:00PM (#10960315)
>You can innovate from a safe job(tm) as well

To some extent, but big companies are likely to be much more conservative towards new ideas. If they weren't, there would be little benefit to being an entrepreneur.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by varelse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:17PM (#10960586)
Another bogus assertion: Big companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple etc. are constantly iterating on innovation. Most of that innovation never sees the light of day just like most startups are destined for failure.

IMO the benefit to being an entrepreneur is that if you truly have a winning idea, you can own a lot more of its fruits by pursuing it from your own business. For it requires nearly the same skillset to procure VC as it does to persuade a large company to let you build something. Risk is and should be proportional to return.

To that end, I have nearly 20 patents filed from within large companies, most of them single inventor. And my salary amortized over a 4-year startup life cycle is on par with what I would have gotten as a non 3-letter title at an acquired startup that wasn't a Google or a Facebook.

So why take a chance on failure without the chance of a big payout? And except for the 3-letter titles, that's what a lot of newbies unknowingly sign up to do, risk >>>> return. I have no desire to socialize this learning experience for them.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Saturday January 23, 2016 @05:12PM (#10960360)
This goes both ways. The cost of making failure painless is that people don't try as hard to avoid it. If the relative difference in utility between success and failure goes down, the incentive to achieve that difference goes down.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by jayd16 on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:59PM (#10959508)
Why pay for roads other people use or public education or the fire department? There are plenty of things you're not using right now that are good ideas.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by strictnein on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:35PM (#10959685)
That's not what's being discussed here at all, nor did I say I don't want to pay taxes. I said I don't see the moral good in paying more in taxes so that others can work less and avoid "menial" jobs.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by madengr on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:58PM (#10959503)
Yep, a universal basic income guaranteed by government (using violence at gunpoint to redistribute other people's money). The socialists leave out the part in brackets.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by overgard on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:05PM (#10959537)
The government already uses implied violence at gunpoint to redistribute money, socialist or otherwise. The question is, does that terrifying government power mean that money goes to the rich banker, or the struggling clerk?
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by aninhumer on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:09PM (#10959554)
As opposed to a property system guaranteed by government (using violence at gunpoint to enforce distribution of resources according to particular rules). The libertarians leave out the part in brackets.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by mojoe on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:46PM (#10959430)
Yep, and considering that extreme poverty leads to all kinds of avoidable crime, I'd much rather live in a society where people are doing something unproductive (like playing video games all day) rather than going out and hurting each other, themselves, and their communities.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by rhino369 on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:56PM (#10959491)
If we really could have a system where we could just stop working and have basic income that would be the great liberation of the masses.

But all these basic income proposals require people to pay taxes to support us.

I've lived on 20k a year with almost no required work. And I've lived on 200k with a job. I'd pick the former everyday and twice on Sunday.

So I don't have some moral problem with not working. The problem is the tax base would implode and there wouldn't be anyone left paying the bills. The system would collapse.

Maybe if software actually eats the world but not until then.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by overgard on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:39PM (#10960656)
Why do you think middle class suburban teenagers work awful jobs with no chance of career growth (Walmart, McDonald's, etc)? Most of them have parents providing for necessities. It's because people always want more. Even the poorest people today live like kings compared to five centuries ago, but people still strive for more despite this relative prosperity!
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by aninhumer on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:37PM (#10959695)
>I've lived on 20k a year with almost no required work. And I've lived on 200k with a job. I'd pick the former everyday and twice on Sunday.

Almost no work is not the same as no work, and 20k is not the same as 12k.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by acdha on Saturday January 23, 2016 @03:11PM (#10959853)
> So I don't have some moral problem with not working. The problem is the tax base would implode and there wouldn't be anyone left paying the bills. The system would collapse. > Maybe if software actually eats the world but not until then.

That's the most likely way I see a basic income happening, too: automation eats into a huge number of jobs – self-driving vehicles take out a LOT of people currently working as truckers, delivery drivers, etc.; robots turn Amazon warehouses into ghost towns where a few technicians tend the machines; whole categories of office jobs continue to fade as analog data entry goes away and processes are automated; and so forth.

In that kind of scenario, it's easy to imagine voters supporting a tax on high earners and corporate income to provide an income for people who simply don't have skills which can't be done by a machine.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:00PM (#10959515)
The concern is that the loss of workers will hurt production/the economy/etc.

If right now, people are willing to do simple work for minimum wage, but we change the system so that people want twice as much before working, then anything that depends on that kind of labor goes up in price, with ripple effects. If less people work, less goods are produced, and prices go up. Similarly, if more people are buying things with their guaranteed income, there's more demand, and prices go up.

This has nothing to do with judging people for choosing not to work, despite what you claimed.

Do you understand that opposition to this idea might not be motivated by wanting to have a system "take advantage " of people? It sounds like you don't, from what you wrote.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by themartorana on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:19PM (#10959599)
BI can't be static, and will have to be tied to the affordability of basic necessities like housing and transportation. As prices rise, so must BI, or it's not BI.

I don't mind discussing the finer points, but work disincentive as it exists as an argument to work as a moral obligation, yes, I think (know [0]) the common thought pattern is that work is a moral requirement, that those that don't are bad, and all social status is earned by those that have, while have-nots just haven't worked hard enough.

As a basic argument of production, it's basically been proven that work disincentive is not actually a thing. Here's a good gathering of evidence: http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/2014/08/25/a-universal...

[0] http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business-jan-june13-makingsen...

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Saturday January 23, 2016 @04:43PM (#10960245)
>As prices rise, so must BI, or it's not BI.

Well then you need to include that in the cost. You can't look at current costs and current tax revenue.

>As a basic argument of production, it's basically been proven that work disincentive is not actually a thing

Saying "this does not lead to a work disincentive" is a very different argument from saying "this leads to a work disincentive, but that's a good thing". Make up your mind. Above you argued that work disincentives were perfectly fine, and are the intended outcome, and anyone who doesn't like them is a monster that wants to enslave people. When I point out that there's a legitimate concern that production will go down, and possibly enough to make BI unviable, you turn around and say that there's no disincentive.

Also, "one guy here argues something, while quoting extensively from many people who disagree" is by no means a "proof" for that side. It's an argument. When there's an economic consensus, that would be closer to proof.

I also have a problem with this:

>However, if, as I have suggested elsewhere, the UBI is financed in part by eliminating middle-class tax loopholes (without changing marginal tax rates), Dave’s income would increase by less than the full $8,000 and he would reduce his annual work by less than 13 hours

This is saying that increasing someone's effective tax rate will increase the number of hours they work. That seems wrong, even if marginal rates are fixed.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by themartorana on Saturday January 23, 2016 @05:34PM (#10960444)
You're twisting my words. I am saying there is no work disincentive. None.

That said, certain types of work that are more aggressively taking advantage of the lower class and those down on their luck will no longer have as an incentive staying just a hair above total homelessness and bankruptcy. Therefore they can pick their work with more dignity (goodbye Amazon warehouse pressures, hello treating people better).

I'm also saying that the work people choose may not be entirely typical, or fit within everyone's definition of "work" as they define it as a moral imperative.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Saturday January 23, 2016 @07:20PM (#10960820)
>You're twisting my words. I am saying there is no work disincentive. None.

I agree that's what you said in your most recent comment. But that's not how you started. I quote:

>What someone that trots that out is saying is that more people would be able to forgo wasting their lives in menial jobs and instead create art and new businesses, or stay home to raise a family or care for elderly parents

You clearly said that some people are going to stop working, and instead focus on things like art, and that's a good thing. Changing your argument halfway through and not acknowledging it is bad form.

In fact, you even said in this comment that there's a disincentive. It's beyond me how you can say "certain types of work ... will no longer have as an incentive" and still claim there's no work disincentive at all.

Make up your mind, choose an argument and stick with it.

>I'm also saying that the work people choose may not be entirely typical, or fit within everyone's definition of "work" as they define it as a moral imperative.

You're still straw manning your opposition, even after I pointed out that moral imperatives to work need play no role in opposing BI. So using your terminology, how would you respond to the concern that this "untypical work" would reduce output enough to threaten the viability of a society?

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by themartorana on Sunday January 24, 2016 @08:30AM (#10962434)
Your attempt at a "gotcha!" is a pretty tone deaf. "Creating art" is a job. It is work. As is caring for the elderly or young children - a lot of this is currently considered not working, which is laughable to anyone currently doing it. (It's also the only time I suggested people might not hold down a traditional job.)

I don't think production and output would go down and I most certainly don't think it would lead to societal collapse, or I wouldn't be arguing for it. Obviously.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Sunday January 24, 2016 @10:36AM (#10962762)
How do you expect less people to hold down "traditional jobs", yet expect traditional measures of production and output to not decrease?

Redefining work doesn't answer any of the questions. Calling art work doesn't affect production, unless art suddenly becomes edible.

"I don't think production and output would go down and I most certainly don't think it would lead to societal collapse, or I wouldn't be arguing for it. Obviously."

You could say that about any position anyone takes. Nobody's accusing Bi advocates of trying to cause societal collapse. They say that BI might, in spite of the advocates best intentions, lead to problems. Your good intentions don't cause good outcomes, so just saying "I don't want society to collapse" is not a useful argument.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by dllthomas on Sunday January 24, 2016 @02:39PM (#10963695)
'How do you expect less people to hold down "traditional jobs", yet expect traditional measures of production and output to not decrease?'

This is interesting. I can't speak for the parent; I would weakly guess that their response would be that they never specified that they were talking about "traditional measures of production" but were specifically objecting to traditional measures. If that's the case, they should have done so more clearly at the outset.

That said, I can see a couple ways that could happen that workers might opt out of traditional jobs without a decrease in "traditional measures of production and output". I make no particular claim that any of these is likely.

One potential outcome is that increased options for workers leads to increased upwards pressure on wages, leading to increased pressure for automation. Improvements to automation could mean increases in production in the medium term, at the cost of some production in the short term.

Another possibility appears if we consider the following model, which may or may not be related to reality:

1 Some workers are disgruntled.

2 Disgruntled workers, on average, have a negative marginal productivity.

3 Because of economic incentives, disgruntled workers must make themselves indistinguishable from regular workers along axes actually used when making hiring/termination decisions.

4 Given other opportunities, those most dissatisfied with their current situation will be most likely to leave.

In this case it would seem that on providing a basic income, we would see those negative marginal productivity workers leave first, which could mean an immediate gain in productivity.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Sunday January 24, 2016 @04:05PM (#10964002)
>increased pressure for automation

I doubt this. There's plenty of pressure for automation now, and I don't see wages increasing as being the final straw to accelerate automation research.

The argument I've seen elsewhere is the other way around: that once we develop better automation, the demand for labor will drop enough that BI will be feasible. But until we reach that stage, I'm not convinced that BI will be sustainable.

>Another possibility appears if we consider the following model, which may or may not be related to reality:

I expect the group of workers that have negative marginal productivity (or, less marginal productivity than their salary) is chiefly those people that are good at fooling the system into thinking they're productive, and not necessarily intersecting heavily with the group of people that would leave under BI. But this is very low confidence.

> I can't speak for the parent; I would weakly guess that their response would be that they never specified that they were talking about "traditional measures of production" but were specifically objecting to traditional measures. If that's the case, they should have done so more clearly at the outset.

If that's what they mean, then I'd ask specifically about food and other essentials. How would those be guaranteed production? How much would the cost of those go up in response to higher wages, and how do you protect against a vicious cycle of "inflation->BI increases-> higher wage demand->inflation"?

And if they think that production of those won't go down, then which people are doing "art"? Who's doing their current job, etc?

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by dllthomas on Sunday January 24, 2016 @04:40PM (#10964148)
> I doubt this. There's plenty of pressure for automation now, and I don't see wages increasing as being the final straw to accelerate automation research.

It's not a question of final straws or dramatic thresholds, but of a constellation of smaller decisions.

If I have to pay my workers $X, it's worth investing in automation that amortizes out to less than $X. If workers demand $2X, then two things follow:

First, more existing solutions in the marketplace are likely to be worthwhile. There may be economies of scale, where this would help lower the cost of similar automation. At an extreme, there may be tools available that could cost <$X if they were being bought by the whole industry, but between $X and $2X in the case where no one is yet buying them.

Second, if I'm considering building automation tools, there are more things I can expect to successfully bring to market if workers are being paid more. And so I am more able to raise funds to do research into that automation.

These kinds of things should lead to an increase in automation as compared to the status quo. It may not be dramatic, but I'm not sure it needs to be dramatic.

> I expect the group of workers that have negative marginal productivity (or, less marginal productivity than their salary) is chiefly those people that are good at fooling the system into thinking they're productive, and not necessarily intersecting heavily with the group of people that would leave under BI.

I think that's plenty possible. But note that we don't require that most of the negative-marginal-product workers leave, just that a large enough portion of leaving workers be negative-marginal-product.

> But this is very low confidence.

Certainly, as was my example in the first place :)

> how do you protect against a vicious cycle of "inflation->BI increases-> higher wage demand->inflation"?

As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a concern. It's my understanding that the result of a BI that is too high for a society to support would precisely be rapid inflation. I propose protecting against the cycle you describe by refusing to raise the BI level in response to inflation, which lets the (real) BI fall to a sustainable level if we set it too high. Growing BI at (or slightly above) targeted inflation seems appropriate. Growing it with observed (or expected) inflation seems dangerous.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by maxerickson on Sunday January 24, 2016 @08:36AM (#10962450)
Creating art is always work, but it's probably not a job unless you can regularly sell the product for sufficient funds to support yourself (short of that, it's more of a hobby).
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by dllthomas on Saturday January 23, 2016 @07:44PM (#10960893)
"BI can't be static, and will have to be tied to the affordability of basic necessities like housing and transportation. As prices rise, so must BI, or it's not BI."

I could not disagree more.

(Or if you want to nitpick definitions and insist that you've defined BI the one true way, then we can be pedantic and say I strongly oppose BI and strongly support a system that is very nearly BI but for this difference...)

I believe that a basic income at an appropriate level will, over time, increase productivity. But I also believe that the result of a basic income higher than the economy can support is a high level of inflation. If we don't raise BI in response, that's naturally self-correcting. I don't want to remove that safeguard.

Increasing it at (or slightly faster than) targeted inflation sounds advisable. We should not increase it based on predicted or observed inflation.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by AnthonyMouse on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:36PM (#10960644)
> If right now, people are willing to do simple work for minimum wage, but we change the system so that people want twice as much before working...

...then they would still be getting paid minimum wage, because the other half of the money comes from the basic income.

It might even allow employers to pay them less, because the UBI would remove the need to have a minimum wage. So someone who was making $15K/year full time at minimum wage who is now getting $12K/year UBI may now have to accept $12K/year in wages because the market for unskilled labor is highly competitive and $24K/year in total income is highly preferable to $12K.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Saturday January 23, 2016 @07:27PM (#10960843)
You misunderstood. When I say "people want twice as much before working", I mean a marginal doubling. If I'm working for a marginal $10 doing unfun work because I need to feed myself, and I'm given basic income, I might say "hey, I'm not willing to do that same work unless I get $20 an hour for it". I might prefer "do nothing and collect BI" to "work for $10 and get BI".

>It might even allow employers to pay them less, because the UBI would remove the need to have a minimum wage. So someone who was making $15K/year full time at minimum wage who is now getting $12K/year UBI may now have to accept $12K/year in wages because the market for unskilled labor is highly competitive and $24K/year in total income is highly preferable to $12K.

It's not obvious which way it would go. I think my scenario above is plausible, but yours is as well.

But in your scenario, why wouldn't the employer capture the entire difference, or a larger part of it? Even if they pay $16k, that's still better than 12k. Or, maybe they'd work less hours.

I think that a more robust analysis than these kinds of handwaving arguments is needed. It's not a simple question.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by AnthonyMouse on Sunday January 24, 2016 @10:15AM (#10962703)
> If I'm working for a marginal $10 doing unfun work because I need to feed myself, and I'm given basic income, I might say "hey, I'm not willing to do that same work unless I get $20 an hour for it". I might prefer "do nothing and collect BI" to "work for $10 and get BI".

You might. And then that employer might prefer to hire someone willing to accept $12 (or $10 or $8) and you become the unemployed person instead of them. Or the employer might realize that it's cost-effective to replace you with an automated process at the point of $11/hour and do that.

> It's not obvious which way it would go. I think my scenario above is plausible, but yours is as well.

It's pretty clearly going to be some of each. But if they even approximately cancel, I don't see what problem that is supposed to create.

> But in your scenario, why wouldn't the employer capture the entire difference, or a larger part of it? Even if they pay $16k, that's still better than 12k. Or, maybe they'd work less hours.

Maybe they would.

> I think that a more robust analysis than these kinds of handwaving arguments is needed. It's not a simple question.

The problem is it's not an analysis thing. It's a facts thing and the facts are always changing.

If you give $12,000/year to a person, what does it cause them to do? It depends what their options are. Maybe they'll keep doing exactly what they were doing and just have more money to spend, or use it to pay off debts. Maybe they'll demand a raise. Maybe their employer can now get away with paying them less. Maybe they'll quit their job and start a business. Maybe they'll quit their job and go to school. Maybe they'll take a different job that they like better but pays less. Maybe they'll take a different job that pays more but has a higher risk of loss of employment.

It depends on the person and their circumstances. Trying to measure it across the entire economy is chaos theory and the measurement you get today in one place won't be the same as it is at some other place or in the same place after a period of time.

The only way to know is to do it and find out. And if the worst case scenario is that companies have to pay some employees more to convince them to do unfun work, is that really the end of days?

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Sunday January 24, 2016 @10:31AM (#10962748)
>But if they even approximately cancel, I don't see what problem that is supposed to create.

If they cancel, there's no problem. If mine is significantly greater than yours, then production goes down, and BI becomes unsustainable.

>The only way to know is to do it and find out. And if the worst case scenario is that companies have to pay some employees more to convince them to do unfun work, is that really the end of days?

If it leads to less production, and then shrinks the economy, then everyone will be worse off.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by AnthonyMouse on Sunday January 24, 2016 @11:10AM (#10962881)
> If they cancel, there's no problem. If mine is significantly greater than yours, then production goes down, and BI becomes unsustainable.

At which point you're just making the argument for not turning on the Large Hadron Collider. We don't know what would happen. It could create a black hole and destroy the world.

There is only one way to find out. And at least in this case we can go back to the old system if it doesn't work out. Or try a version at half the dollar amount first to see what happens.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by ikeboy on Sunday January 24, 2016 @11:39AM (#10962966)
>At which point you're just making the argument for not turning on the Large Hadron Collider. We don't know what would happen. It could create a black hole and destroy the world.

That's unfair. There's a plausible argument that this would be harmful, while there's far less plausibility that the LHC would be harmful.

>There is only one way to find out.

Somehow I don't think you mean "more experiments".

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by Shivetya on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:00PM (#10959516)
Your making assumptions that people who rely on it will put their time to good use when a great many of them are not currently do so, why would they change with even less reason?

Incentive to work would more like incentive to receive even more benefits for other items. The problem is politicians, suddenly there will be all sorts of new exceptions to your BI "because". Then we are back to square one.

I see most BI suggestions as rationalization for giving up. Face it, there are a lot of people who would be and even some who are living at a level none of us can fathom. Do we really want to legislate an permanent poor class of people, one where there is likely more incentive to not leave it?

Finally how do you plan to prevent self destructive and generally harmful activities some will engage in. There are countless stories of generational incompetence, from high frequency of out of wedlock children if not even out of school, to not even finishing school? How can we incentivize good behavior, good for self and society?

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by themartorana on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:08PM (#10959549)
But we already have that permanent poor class, vanishingly few of whom escape it, and they're actually getting poorer as time goes on.

I see UBI as the best plan by far I've heard to address homelessness and poverty and education and hunger with a single solution. No it's not perfect, but for as little as working provides poor people now, what incentive do they have now that they'd lose later besides those below basic human dignity (like eating)?

To your point about politicians mucking with BI on the regular, I concur that is a real concern to proper execution.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by icebraining on Saturday January 23, 2016 @02:28PM (#10959654)
Some of us just aren't so sure that we know better than poor people and should decide what's best for them. If they want to dedicate their lives to "unproductive" activities, so what? What makes your job so important, anyway? Mine certainly isn't world-changing, despite earning me a better-than-average salary.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by overgard on Saturday January 23, 2016 @06:45PM (#10960682)
Do you think we'd have less homeless people if the incentives for not being homeless were made stronger? "The beatings will continue until morale improves". You make it sound like people choose to be poor because it's awesome. You know what? Poor people already have plenty of incentives not to be poor, nobody wants to be in that boat.
Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by loki49152 on Saturday January 23, 2016 @05:45PM (#10960471)
This is the exact line of nonsense that was used to sell the original transition to welfare statism. Literally the exact words - "It will be just enough to survive but not enough for anyone to ever be satisfied with".

History proved them wrong. This isn't "a tired argument", as if it were some speculation based on beliefs. It's a recounting of what actually happened and continues to happen with welfare/handout programs.

Re:Time for a Guaranteed Basic Income? by danharaj on Saturday January 23, 2016 @01:44PM (#10959424)
Yes. One need only consider that the threat of starving to death is an incentive to sell yourself to another person in order to dispel the euphemistic and misanthropic rhetoric.