I'm not so sure you can count on a country to act in rational self-interest. Individual people aren't so good at that, and collectives can be less rational than individuals.

That never, ever happens.

How would you know that?

Give me one historical example.

You want me to give an example of something I'm claiming we don't know?

Surely if this is possible you could find one example in all of human history.

If I had better knowledge of military history, maybe. But I find it extremely unlikely that there has never been a situation where somebody knew some secret about their enemy that encouraged them into a concession instead of resistance. I mean, it happens in legal situations every day.