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A comment on Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs. Parent comment

Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by tsotha on Saturday June 20, 2015 @05:53PM (#9751156)
Spying is a wash - what you're saying is true, but it's only half the equation. Sometimes that second guessing is what keeps the conflict from becoming hot. Spying can compromise a country's defense to the extent another country feels comfortable attacking. Also, if a weaker country can maintain the facade of strength it's less likely to be attacked.

The most obvious example is when one country manages to uncover another country's nuclear assets to such a high degree of confidence it feels (rightly or wrongly) it can make a 100% successful first strike.

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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by gizmo686 on Saturday June 20, 2015 @06:15PM (#9751233)
You need mutual spying, but if you have that, then the week country will know that it is 100% vulnerable to first strike, and surrender before it comes to that.
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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by oofabz on Saturday June 20, 2015 @08:36PM (#9751589)
I'm not so sure you can count on a country to act in rational self-interest. Individual people aren't so good at that, and collectives can be less rational than individuals.
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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by tsotha on Saturday June 20, 2015 @06:41PM (#9751286)
That never, ever happens.
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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by Retra on Saturday June 20, 2015 @07:23PM (#9751398)
How would you know that?
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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by tsotha on Saturday June 20, 2015 @08:24PM (#9751559)
Give me one historical example.
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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by Retra on Saturday June 20, 2015 @10:46PM (#9751942)
You want me to give an example of something I'm claiming we don't know?
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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by tsotha on Saturday June 20, 2015 @11:44PM (#9752070)
Surely if this is possible you could find one example in all of human history.
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Re:Bruce Schneier: China and Russia Almost Definitely Have t... by Retra on Sunday June 21, 2015 @01:13AM (#9752287)
If I had better knowledge of military history, maybe. But I find it extremely unlikely that there has never been a situation where somebody knew some secret about their enemy that encouraged them into a concession instead of resistance. I mean, it happens in legal situations every day.
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