News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by mikeash on Thursday April 09, 2015 @10:10AM (#9347596)
An interesting facet of this is that even though the death rate is extremely low, the authorities still want to get it to zero. And it's becoming really hard, because failures are no longer happening often enough to be able to analyze them properly.
Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by csours on Thursday April 09, 2015 @11:31AM (#9348245)
I'm sure it is more difficult, but you should be able to measure significant non-fatal events.

For instance hospitals (and some industries) measure sentinel events [1][2]. Sentinel events cause death or serious permanent injury, or events that could cause death or serious permanent injury.

1: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_event

2: I couldn't find a reference for industry, but I know they are recorded because I went through the training.

Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by mikeyouse on Thursday April 09, 2015 @05:53PM (#9351295)
The US instituted what's called the 'Aviation Safety Reporting System' in the mid-1970s, which is a program administered by NASA. Any airline employee can file confidential reports about near-misses or other safety issues to an independent party, which then analyzes and aggregates the info to make safety changes.

I think it's a large part of why the US airline industry has become so much safer over time. Having a lower-bound number for altitude overshoots or communication problems is immensely useful for policy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_Safety_Reporting_Syste...

Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by cmurf on Thursday April 09, 2015 @07:17PM (#9351658)
The general ASRS reporting form can be filled out by almost anyone, not just an airline employee. Most typically it's pilots, including general aviation pilots.
Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by kjs3 on Thursday April 09, 2015 @07:02PM (#9351604)
I think it's a large part of why the US airline industry has become so much safer over time.

Programs like this are why much of the worlds airlines are safer. It's not a US only thing.

Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by AndrewKemendo on Thursday April 09, 2015 @10:41AM (#9347848)
Exponentially harder it would seem and with less and less feedback, my guess is that the numbers will oscillate around some local minimum until there is a paradigm shift in travel technology.
Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by BurningFrog on Thursday April 09, 2015 @11:55AM (#9348435)
Rational decisions are made when you weigh costs against benefits.

This sounds like focusing only on benefits and ignoring costs. That rarely leads to good overall outcomes.

This is a very useful mental error to be able to spot. A very common argument is "X has a clear benefit, so we should do it!". The benefit is absolutely real, but you also need to look at the costs to make a good decision.

Another failure mode is risk aversion. If the FDA approves something that turns out to kill 1000 people, they get in much worse media and political trouble than if they don't approve something that would have saved 1,000,000 lives. So they focus hard on costs and less on benefits.

Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ... by eevilspock on Thursday April 09, 2015 @11:30AM (#9348234)
But the effort is what is makes it this low. The alternative is complacency, and the associated slide backwards.