Re:The Differences Between the Plane Crash in Tapei and the ...
by BurningFrog on Thursday April 09, 2015 @11:55AM
(#9348435)
Rational decisions are made when you weigh costs against benefits.
This sounds like focusing only on benefits and ignoring costs. That rarely leads to good overall outcomes.
This is a very useful mental error to be able to spot. A very common argument is "X has a clear benefit, so we should do it!". The benefit is absolutely real, but you also need to look at the costs to make a good decision.
Another failure mode is risk aversion. If the FDA approves something that turns out to kill 1000 people, they get in much worse media and political trouble than if they don't approve something that would have saved 1,000,000 lives. So they focus hard on costs and less on benefits.
This sounds like focusing only on benefits and ignoring costs. That rarely leads to good overall outcomes.
This is a very useful mental error to be able to spot. A very common argument is "X has a clear benefit, so we should do it!". The benefit is absolutely real, but you also need to look at the costs to make a good decision.
Another failure mode is risk aversion. If the FDA approves something that turns out to kill 1000 people, they get in much worse media and political trouble than if they don't approve something that would have saved 1,000,000 lives. So they focus hard on costs and less on benefits.