To put things into perspective, maybe he's right in saying that bikes get moved over the border to facilitate the resale. Your stolen bikes probably end up here in Germany. It's the EU single market. :) On general principle Germany tends to export more than it imports, not sure if that also applies to stolen goods. ;)

I doubt the thieves go to so much trouble, though, I expect my bikes that got stolen -- happened a few times -- ended up resold in the same city or in a neighbouring town. Wouldn't be totally shocked to recognize my own (well, formerly) bike in the local classifieds.

Yup. Much of the bikes that get stolen around here (Prague, central Europe) are re-sold considerably cheaper at shady shops within the same city. Of course, the statistic comes from bikes which have been recovered; this may significantly skew it.

I know, because I come from Eastern EU myself. But I can see what the market is like - there is plenty of "imported" German bikes around. And I have trouble believing that Germans are selling nice bikes for close to nothing. And like Morsch said in the comment below - our stolen bikes end up exported to the West, or maybe further to the east. My point is that within the EU it's really easy to move goods across borders,and then they become untraceable.