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Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by snitko on Friday April 05, 2013 @02:10AM (#5497029)
You may think that deflation and hoarding is bad. However people are drawn to it. Fortunately, you can't tell people what to do and where to store their money. Thus, a currency that allows hoarding will always be more attractive to people than the one which doesn't.

Soon enough people will learn that there is no deflationary spiral. They will also learn that currency can be both deflationary and move around. Bitcoin is divisible, so it doesn't matter if someone hoards a significant amount of it - trade will still flourish and enough transactions will take place precisely because you can divide one bitcoin into smaller parts.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by dragonwriter on Friday April 05, 2013 @11:07AM (#5498849)
> You may think that deflation and hoarding is bad. However people are drawn to it.

People are drawn to lots of things which are destructive. (Theft, rape, etc.) So what?

> Fortunately, you can't tell people what to do and where to store their money.

You actually can, and, more usefully, you can adopt a social convention in which the generally accepted "money" isn't particularly attractive to hoard.

> Thus, a currency that allows hoarding will always be more attractive to people than the one which doesn't.

Well, to people who are ignorant of its harms or who maliciously seek to cause them, sure.

> Soon enough people will learn that there is no deflationary spiral. They will also learn that currency can be both deflationary and move around.

A deflationary currency (if it was the only one around) might still move around in exchange, especially for necessary consumables, but it creates a disincentive for investment, because the appreciation of the value of the currency makes it compete with investment vehicles, which encourages hoarding over investment -- and the more hoarding that occurs, the faster the money supply shrinks and the faster the exchange value of the currency rises, increasing the incentive to hoard. Its a classical positive feedback loop, which inevitably lasts until the currency is reformed in such a way that removes the deflationary features (impossible with BTC), external social/legal factors are imposed which limit hoarding, or until it is displaced as a currency and reverts to its commodity value (which, for BTC, is zero.)

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by pyoung on Friday April 05, 2013 @04:32AM (#5497304)
I like your point about adoption. It makes sense that a deflationary currency would attract more people due to its speculative nature. Without this aspect of bitcoin, it would still probably be trading for pennies and languishing in relative obscurity. Any digital currency designed with an inflationary system will probably fail to attract a critical mass of users, because outside of anonymity, which is only important for a small minority, there is no significant upside to owning the currency.

Where I don't agree with you is that the divisible nature of bitcoin somehow makes it viable (most currencies are divisible by the way, 100 cents = $1). The fact is deflation suppress spending (and hence economic activity) because the currency will be worth significantly more in the future than it is now, and therefore, I would prefer to hold onto it rather than spend it. Divisibility does not change this.

Where I am still up in the air, is whether or not a digital currency needs to be inflationary. Gold has some industrial uses, but it's value is largely due to tradition and speculation. It has long been used as a common store of value and is bought by traders as a hedge against fluctuations in the global economy. Bitcoin could become the 'Gold of the internet'. A new way to hedge against the global economy, but other than that, not something that really affects everyday life, except maybe at the fringes (when was the last time you bought something with gold).

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by snitko on Friday April 05, 2013 @04:38AM (#5497322)
Please read this short thread where I explain why investment is still an attractive option with Bitcoin: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5403360

I hope this changes your mind.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by pyoung on Friday April 05, 2013 @01:00PM (#5499588)
"Nobody invests. If that's the case, then the amount of goods and services in the economy remains constant"

No, if nobody invests, then there will be NO goods and services at all. That is a recipe for economic calamity, and would create a situation where guns and ammo would end up more valuable than any currency (what is the point of holding a currency if you can't buy anything with it?). I have yet to read a convincing explanation as to how deflation is a good thing. The general premise is that a 'little' deflation is a good thing because it encourages people to save, but the authors always fail to address the fact that deflation leads to more deflation and hence the 'deflationary spiral' that eventually causes things like the great depression. One author actually argues that the Great Depression was a good thing, but I don't exactly agree with that sentiment.

Once again, Gold is a better comparison to bitcoin than any fiat currency, because bitcoin is not a form of exchange for any particular economy and the dangers of deflation do not necessarily apply. More than anything, bitcoin is being used as a store of value. While this doesn't make for a good currency, it does not necessarily mean bitcoin is doomed.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by zanny on Friday April 05, 2013 @05:40AM (#5497458)
My problem with this and BTC is that it isn't even a truly fixed currency supply - as people lose wallets, the bitcoins they contained are permanantly lost because only those wallets (that are now destroyed) are lost. So either you brute force the signing key and try to imitate the wallets or you will never get those coins back.

So it isn't just that BTC will (in a hundred odd years) stop growing the money supply, it will probably (sooner than that) start leaking bitcoins from lost wallets, and as the money supply drops deflation grows faster than with a fixed money base.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by snitko on Friday April 05, 2013 @06:59AM (#5497623)
There won't be a lot of lost wallets. At least not enough to cause any kind of noticeable effect.
Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by dragonwriter on Friday April 05, 2013 @10:46AM (#5498714)
> There won't be a lot of lost wallets. At least not enough to cause any kind of noticeable effect.

With a fixed upper limit on the number of BTC ever issued, if wallets are lost at any non-zero rate, there will eventually be exactly 0 BTC that can be spent.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by Nursie on Friday April 05, 2013 @05:12AM (#5497394)
Why on earth would I participate in an economy with a deflationary currency?

Every day I would have to work harder or be paid less, all the while my economic output would be increasing the wealth of those who are unproductive but happen to possess currency. No thanks.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by zanny on Friday April 05, 2013 @05:37AM (#5497452)
If you can get your employer to give you fixed salary in a deflation, your spending power goes up. If the employer adjusts down, your net buying power doesn't decrease if prices adjust to increased value of money.

Those who by and large run the world right now sit on their laurels letting their money (albeit, in "risky" investments rather than a box growing in value) make them even richer. While their money might be productive, they more or less aren't contributing anything else, and they do it in self-interest.

I'm not trying to argue for deflation, and I do think the design of BTC as a finite monetary supply is fundamentally flawed, but deflation and inflation respectively benefit someone - deflation those who hoard, and inflation economic growth. But both depend on people who have the money in the first place.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by dragonwriter on Friday April 05, 2013 @11:51AM (#5499141)
> If you can get your employer to give you fixed salary in a deflation, your spending power goes up.

Yeah, but you can't. BTC is deflationary because of built-in supply constraints. Its trivially obvious that you can't expect a fixed salary in it unless you have a shrinking pool of employed people.

> If the employer adjusts down, your net buying power doesn't decrease if prices adjust to increased value of money.

If the employer adjust down at or slower than the pace of deflation, your buying power doesn't decrease, just as it doesn't with an inflationary currency if your employer adjusts up at or above the pace of inflation.

Of course, if your employer is paying you in Bitcoins, they need to get them from somewhere, and with a deflationary currency which encourages hoarding and discourages both spending and investment, good luck with your employer having much success with that.

> Those who by and large run the world right now sit on their laurels letting their money (albeit, in "risky" investments rather than a box growing in value) make them even richer.

Investments aren't money, they are things purchased with money.

> While their money might be productive, they more or less aren't contributing anything else, and they do it in self-interest.

Right, currencies managed to be mildly inflationary harness the self-interest of the rich to produce diffuse benefits (which, unfortunately, are often counteracted by things outside the currency system itself, but that's a different issue), while currencies designed to be deflationary harness the self-interest of the rich to produce diffuse harms (which, unfortunately, are often aggravated by the same things outside of the currency system that mitigate the benefits of inflationary currencies.)

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by Nursie on Friday April 05, 2013 @05:44AM (#5497465)
I dunno, at least the likes of Warren Buffet get richer by profiting from stuff they actually invest in. Deflationary currency seems to remove this link, and in fact make investment a much less interesting proposal.
Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by snitko on Friday April 05, 2013 @05:24AM (#5497418)
You won't be paid less. The money you'll be paid would worth the same, numbers don't matter. Also, your savings would increase in value as everyone else's.

I find it very common even here on HN that many people fall for this fallacy that money == value.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by Nursie on Friday April 05, 2013 @05:38AM (#5497454)
You miss my main point - that the rewards of any economic growth produced by those doing productive work in a BTC economy is enjoyed by those hoarding, not by those producing. Work performed in the past is valued higher than work performed in the present.

As a result anyone with enough old money can parasitise on productive society forever, to the nth generation. And instead of doing so by (at the very least) stimulating the economy through investment, they can do it just by sitting on their mattress full of cash.

Again, why would I participate in an economy where my hard work is of direct benefit to people just sitting on cash?

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by snitko on Friday April 05, 2013 @07:05AM (#5497638)
That's a valid concern but it doesn't stand scrutiny. Production itself doesn't create deflation. If the number of goods and services in the world remains more or less constant, it means there is no deflation. At the same time, people will still be working and producing things.

It's only when money are invested then you have a surplus of things in the economy which deflates the money. By investing, hoarders allow others not-yet-rich people access to capital. Thus, if hoarders want to become richer they will have to make rich others too.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by Nursie on Friday April 05, 2013 @07:11AM (#5497662)
"If the number of goods and services in the world remains more or less constant"

Does it though? I thought we were all addicted to growth? If we continue to have any growth then with a limited cash supply, each unit becomes worth more (deflation).

"By investing, hoarders allow others not-yet-rich people access to capital."

I'm not clear on how you think this works, because (AFAICT) hoarding BTC is just holding on to currency, not any sort of investment?

" Thus, if hoarders want to become richer they will have to make rich others too."

Or they can just sit on it while others do the work and achieve much the same with no risk...

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by snitko on Friday April 05, 2013 @08:00AM (#5497814)
Ok, I think you misunderstood my statement. I was saying this: if you want growth, you need to invest. If you don't invest, you don't get more goods and services in the economy. If you don't have more goods and services, each unit of money can't grow in value (e.g. no deflation) because there wouldn't exist more things you can buy. Thus, if you want money to increase in value, you have to invest.

It's a tricky circle, but once you understand it, it all becomes clear.

Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by Nursie on Friday April 05, 2013 @08:26AM (#5497909)
Yes, but if currency is deflationary, it's best for me if someone else does these things and I just sit back and profit from my currency holdings.
Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by snitko on Friday April 05, 2013 @03:48PM (#5500632)
Not necessarily. By investing you take your destiny in your own hands: you deflate your savings and also collect profits. It is not a given that those just sitting around will profit more from inaction, but it is true that you make them richer too. Well, I can live with that.
Re:Are Bitcoins The Future? by agravier on Friday April 05, 2013 @03:37AM (#5497199)
This point disturbs some people because it implies that they should not mind hoarders, and continue business with BTC as usual. But people mind (more or less) hoarders because they are: 1> worried about their apparent (and seemingly growing) power over the value of the currency, or/and 2> jealous.