How much of Nvidia’s revenue came from infringing sales to china? If so, that revenue is probably going to disappear as now they will have to really be serious about export controls or face much greater pain. Some estimates I’ve seen is 30% of their revenue perhaps disappearing overnight!

And I'm pretty sure any CEO with at least a bachelors degree knows about the De beers diamonds story, so, I really find it hard to believe they will struggle with the concept of maintaining their artifical scarcity/demand.

Plus whole lot of people waiting for that signal that the "AI bubble " is about to burst.

We have a new equivalent to something like Web 2.0 boom, Its not like the dot com bubble, because its not actually made up of a lot of empty unimplemented websites with too few users.

Rather its already able and in my opinion has met Dario's claim about 'replacing all developer jobs' if a bit later than he claimed, alongside every other single job, nearly bar none, able to be replaced if it can be done via a computer.

For example, Fable 5.2. I wish it was cheaper. It's able to perform a build out of and then run an entire complex software stack, including dependencies/servers for internal opensource git servers with ci/cd and the full git and jira featureset combined, with spin up/server management across every major cloud provider and then use said stack to run a swarm as a collaborating dev team from every major llm provider.

I know that because I've done most of it (or rather Fable has) as a part of a side-project whim just to see what I could do. Literally just today, over the last 24 hours. While simultaneously on the side harvesting all the aws credits for me, so I don't go bankrupt. Its insane.

I guess it also explains how I used my weekly usage that reset last night all up in less than 18 hours, but what can you do.

Anyways apologies for the ramble, I need some sleep.

Personally I think a bigger risk than that is AI models getting good enough to legitimately just reverse engineer and open source CUDA directly.

The key is that NVIDIA is in a fast-changing technology sector and that means the core business requires NVIDIA to keep innovating new and better products that beat the competition. Having a company continuously adapt and iterate future products requires a visionary leader that pushes the company to stay on the cutting edge. Competitors and alternative products like Google TPU, Amazon Trainiu, Cerebrus, etc are not staying still; they're innovating too.

Many shareholders (including employees with RSU stock) are worried that NVIDIA without Jensen puts them in a weaker position for the future unless they can find someone with equivalent influence and vision.

Intel was once on top of the world with CEO Andy Grove running things and then the followup CEO's didn't keep Intel at the cutting edge and they lost market leadership to TSMC, AMD, Apple Silicon in various areas. The world changes and Intel didn't adapt fast enough.

Everyone is somewhat replaceable but the work they historically have done might have been critical to reach current stage. And Nvidia may miss on what he could have done but it will take a while for the downturn to happen and others are just as capable. They may find another internal or external candidate that may be able to push further. Market will price the uncertainty until then.

Its more of a 'race to the bottom' for price efficiency/hardware deg efficiency against price of electricity and price of the chips over lifetime, than it is a fast changing tech sector where breakthroughs are being made everyday that change the entire game like say with OpenAI and Anthropic.

So basically like a blue chip.

And it was all high risk. It may be only a once in a generation founder who wants to orchestrate that risk.

And again, no one was expecting NVIDIA to stay flat, massive growth was priced in.

I would say it’s under-priced, but I get really nervous when my thinking diverges this strongly from the market. Previous confidence in my thinking has not gone well.