2019: That bond bailout you didn't hear about

2020: COVID bailout

2022: Various credit/liquidity facilities and the slow-walked rate hikes

2023: Bank bailouts

I dunno what happens this time. So many cards have been played out and a lot of entities seem to be white-knuckling it.

The boom-and-bust cycle is a natural consequence of running an economy on debt: margin leads to speculation which leads to overheating, and then it has to cool off. It is entirely possible to guarantee the public's welfare during busts; you just have to sacrifice not having a ceiling on earnings/wealth.

Would be even really really good if we would start breaking through barriers regarding state spending and allowing more to do so in a way that inflation is not affected.

Like allowing every state on the planet to 'spend' money on certain things like renewable or teachers or care workers.

If a recession was started because someone else is taking your retirement fonds and putting them in companies overvaluated to move money from retirement fonds to random other people, and this is closer to gambling than investment, regulators should step in.

> someone else is taking your retirement fond

> and putting them in companies overvaluated

> to move money from retirement fonds to random other people,

> and this is closer to gambling than investment

1) "I vaguely disapprove of this framing for reasons I choose not to explain?" Or do you mean,

2) "Each step violates any reasonable duty, and wouldn't be taken in a world that punished people for taking wild risks with the money of retirees, or in a world that expected the "risk" that people took when investing in stocks to actually be "risky" instead of ultimately backstopped by the taxpayers?"

I suspect 1.

If they blindly invest in random companies even with P/Es in 3 digits, thats overvaluated.

The move happens because your retirement is getting less in a crash, but that money was moved around because you bought shares and someone else sold them.

What will be the margin? if its a healthy one, its not gambling its investment. If its good, it becomes gambling.

Thirteen since WWII or roughly two per decade.

For some reason the people who hate him the most are the ones most inclined to completely ignore the topics he actually talks about.

They all get hooked on anthropic screeching about ending humanity or some other nonsense and forget that this is a business. A business which is losing gargantuan stacks of cash and is running on the fumes of hype and cope.

Huh? His predictions on both the financial and technical sides (see https://danluu.com/zitron/) have been spectacularly wrong.

If any boosters can provide the type of evidence that Zitron has I’d love to see it.

Even if OpenAI goes bankrupt, someone will buy their models in bankruptcy to run them. Also, other companies will be able to hire the people who are laid off to apply the same techniques to get similar models.

So from the point of view of technological / AI progress we'll be fine.

Some investors might lose some money, but humanity will keep going forward.