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Re:Starlink Mini 2 by mdorazio on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @09:42PM (#50449179)
Starlink is profitable. It is not unsustainable at all when you own the rockets and the satellite manufacturing. Read the audited financials if you don’t believe it. Other parts of SpaceX are a different story.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @09:49PM (#50449226)
It's profitable if you don't pay for the rockets. The audited financials say the launch cost is $0 for Starlink (and -$whatever for Launch but as depreciation and not as costs).
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by adventured on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @10:06PM (#50449324)
It's profitable if you pay for the rockets. Starlink is a massive business now and it keeps getting larger, and it has good margins. It can trivially pay for the rocket business over time.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @10:14PM (#50449366)
... if it pays for the launches, it has negative margins. I'm not sure what's hard to understand here. It might be the case that you can get enough satellites up and replace them consistently enough that margins go positive, and then you can start paying back the cost of "the rocket business" (i.e. more than the marginal cost of launch) but... it's not at all clear that's even theoretically possible. At least not without launch costs coming down significantly from where they are today, which Starship is not actually en route to achieving.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by ACCount39 on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @10:59PM (#50449594)
I expected that to be true - that Starlink would not be profitable pre-Starship. But Starlink revenue has exceeded expectations.

By now, Starlink is profitable even if launched with Falcon 9 - and Starship is coming online.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by afavour on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @11:32PM (#50449768)
Unless I’m misunderstanding something OP is saying that the only reason Starlink is profitable is because they don’t pay for the rocket launches. But the rocket launches still cost money, it’s just that SpaceX pays for it. But given they’re part of the same overall organization it just seems like an accounting trick.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by londons_explore on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @01:11AM (#50450213)
Imagine they didn't have starlink... They would have massively too few clients to fill their launch roster, and would be deeply unprofitable.

Starlink could be seen as a 'fire sale' of launch capacity rather than a sound business move.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by inemesitaffia on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @02:09AM (#50450525)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50450510

Claims are based on nonsense.

Launch 20 million satellites at 600k is clear from reading the financials

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @06:36AM (#50452211)
You haven’t read the financials, clearly. Starlink does not pay for launch. It’s that simple.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @08:48AM (#50453380)
No, the claims are based on SpaceX's financials (you should try reading them).

Starlink's launch costs are not booked as costs to Starlink (nor revenue to Space). They're booked as depreciation over an undefined time period.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by nutjob2 on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @10:57AM (#50454908)
It's the "we've got a bunch of rockets lying around... sometimes other folks in the company use them when they're not working for space lift clients..." view.

The fuel would have to be expensed, but generally speaking its impossible to say how unprofitable Starlink is because they don't account for it that way or break those costs out.

When they swallow Tesla it'll be more of the same, and thats the point. Musk is trying to obfuscate the (poor) performance of his businesses so he can maintain delusional market valuations based of vague promises.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @11:12AM (#50455078)
Yes this is correct.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by inemesitaffia on Thursday November 12, 2026 @07:04AM (#50465962)
The costs aren't hidden anywhere. They are very visible.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by inemesitaffia on Thursday November 12, 2026 @07:02AM (#50465945)
I've read them.

The costs aren't hiding somewhere vague.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @06:41AM (#50452245)
This is correct. I’m not an accountant so not qualified to say the degree to which it’s tricky, but it does add an addendum to “Starlink is profitable [if you completely exclude the primary source of variable cost by burying it into a different business segment].”
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by ACCount39 on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @07:15PM (#50461015)
Starlink is in the black by $4.5bn.

The entire "space launch" segment in the red by $1.1bn. Primary driver being the $3.3bn spent on Starship R&D.

How are they "burying it into a different business segment", pray tell me?

If you remove Starship, Falcon launches and Starlink are both independently profitable. And Starship wasn't even used for Starlink until the one test launch this year.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @08:28PM (#50461803)
You buy a pizza from me for $20

It costs me $5 in labor and $20 in ingredients

My margin is -25%

I account for the ingredients as depreciating assets over a 100 year lifespan

It now costs me $5 in labor and $0.09 in ingredients

My margin is now 74%

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by ACCount39 on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @09:00PM (#50462082)
You are inventing more and more elaborate ways for "this is how Starlink is secretly unprofitable" while we knew it was printing money since 2024.

You can drop SpaceX's launch revenue to zero, fund all of it with Starlink revenue, and the sum is still profitable.

We know "whether Starlink is a viable business": it is. End of story. You better start pivoting towards "but what if future competition" or "the revenue growth is uncertain", because your attempts to wiggle your way out of admitting that Starlink is a money printer now are weak at best.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @09:13PM (#50462206)
I have literally been describing the exact same mechanism, which is the actual mechanism that you can actually read about in their financial statements, since this conversation started.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by ACCount39 on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @09:37PM (#50462378)
And what is that "mechanism", pray tell? I don't think you have one. Or ever had one, for that matter.

You can't just say "they're hiding the launch costs" and expect it to magically make Starlink unprofitable. Starlink has been bearing launch costs for its entire existence, and if anything, the advent of Starship is likely to make them lower, not higher.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Thursday November 12, 2026 @05:21AM (#50465298)
Are you serious? Good lord. Take this article. Go take SpaceX's filings. Ask an LLM to explain how Starlink is accounted for and what the effects of that accounting method are.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depreciation.asp

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @06:39AM (#50452234)
… no.

The Falcon/Starship distinction actually doesn’t change the financial profile of Starlink as it’s reported today at all because — for the 4th time — Starlink does not pay for launch.

The cost of Starlink launch is absorbed into SpaceX’s “Space” segment as depreciation. It doesn’t show up as a cost in the Starlink segment at all. That’s why you think it’s profitable.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by inemesitaffia on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @10:34PM (#50449488)
It says the launch costs are ~<20 million
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by dcrazy on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @11:05PM (#50449635)
So in other words, the net present value of each Starlink launch must be >= $20 million in order for Starlink to be a sustainable business.

Seems within the realm of possibility at this point in the company’s growth cycle?

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by inemesitaffia on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @02:06AM (#50450510)
Starlink is already showing net income and has shown net income for at least 3 years.

There's always people out there to minimize success of others.

It's not first. It's nothing new. It's not innovative.

There's an old article in WSJ that claimed SpaceX told investors that starlink was profitable if you excluded certain costs. We found out from the IPO that that was nonsense. SpaceX was charging starlink the internal cost of launch. Not the public pricing that everyone else charges.

That makes sense if you're not trying to split the company.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by dcrazy on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @02:21AM (#50450595)
The question of whether Starlink can pay for its own launches is absolutely valid, whether or not you are planning to split the company.
Re:Starlink Mini 2 by inemesitaffia on Thursday November 12, 2026 @07:06AM (#50465988)
The imagination is that they are paying retail pricing instead of internal cost.

Something that makes no sense.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by estearum on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @06:46AM (#50452279)
You are wrong. The current, publicly filed financials for SpaceX show Starlink as paying nothing for launch.

The launch costs for Starlink DO NOT show up as costs that Starlink pays. They show up as depreciation on the satellites themselves.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by nutjob2 on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @11:03AM (#50454976)
> profitable if you excluded certain costs

So is everything, it's an empty statement.

> Starlink is already showing net income and has shown net income for at least 3 years.

This is just BS since they don't break it out as a separate business. There are accounting rules for this and they don't follow them because they are not treating it as a seperate business.

> There's always people out there to minimize success of others.

Oh poor Musk, everyone is always trying to put him down. If only people would leave him alone he only want to save the world from everything. He's a saint.

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by inemesitaffia on Thursday November 12, 2026 @07:05AM (#50465972)
It's broken out clearly as a business unit.

Nothing hidden

All hail Saint Nutjob

Re:Starlink Mini 2 by olyjohn on Wednesday November 11, 2026 @05:48PM (#50459962)
[delayed]