When it becomes trivial to create ad hoc solutions, I think the utility (and thus frequency) of behemoth code bases will decrease. Because you no longer need one giant monstrosity when you're only using 3% of its features when you can have a far more efficient and targeted solution that specifically caters to your 3%, and can be trivially expanded as desired.

In fact I think we're already at this scenario, but it hasn't had the predicted impact yet because the sort of people that realize we're here already overlaps perfectly with the sort already capable of developing their own software. When e.g. receptionists start tossing together their own productivity app in a few minutes, then revolutionary change is nigh.

> When e.g. receptionists start tossing together their own productivity apps in a few minutes, then we will have entered into the next phase of the economy.

This isn't a matter of tooling through. Receptionists won't start making their own productivity apps because most people do not default to "I will make my own thing to solve this".

Maybe some receptionists will, but most won't, just like most people won't patch their own drywall even though the tools are available in every hardware store

Now imagine somebody could just describe some damage to their drywall in a text message to their computer, and it'd be magically patched away. Suffice to say, nobody would be calling in for drywall repair. Before computers, there were computers. [1]

It's obvious in hindsight, but all of these complex numerical calculations we take for granted were often not done by the same people applying them in various ways. They'd hire computers instead, which were human calculators whose job it was to do the math.

The reason these jobs no longer exist is because calculators/computers not only solved these tasks, but completely trivialized the process to do so. We're entering into a world where many cognitive tasks, including software development, are going to be trivialized in a similar fashion - describe the problem, get an answer.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation)

Perhaps, but I imagine that it would be difficult for the receptionist to spec such tools sufficiently such that they would want to use the tool. Also, how would this tool be distributed or accessed? Most people don't have package managers or even desktop environments that they can meaningfully modify. To use your example, the receptionist is likely running windows on a thin client that is maintained by an msp, so how would they install and use the tool?

People talk about AI solving coding, sure, to a large extent. The problems of design and ops completely confound the layperson. Just last year, a cousin mentioned they were using like lovable or something to build a webpage for their business idea. I offered to just throw it together for them, very simple crud. They gave me what they had on lovable, and they got no further than the landing page before they had no idea what to ask for, let alone how to ask for it. Prompts were literally "ok so now make the app" and the models like "well what about x y z"? You have to be technically inclined at the very least to get something remotely useful out of these things.

Deployment is only an issue because it's assumed to be unnecessary in a current environment. As that assumption changes, so will the default setups. Of course that introduces new vulnerabilities, but as LLMs also make a mess of everything security related (and future LLMs will likely make a mess current era 'LLM hardened' setups, onward) our approach towards security and the internet will change in ways that are difficult to predict today.

I agree that plenty of people are currently hesitant to use LLMs for technical purposes, but I don't think it's because they literally could not do it. LLMs will now code up entire workable apps from minimal/vague/contradictory descriptions. If somebody only got to a landing page it's because they only prompted for a landing page, possibly trying to mimic how a human developer might have previously built a site - and quickly getting lost. But if you just say 'make a website where people can order widgets, manage their orders, and do all related tasks' it'll get done, no technical knowledge needed.

So I think we're mostly in a transitory phase. As people realize how powerful these tools have become, adoption is simply unavoidable.

Maybe

Granted, people would have to be able to accurately describe what they want to the computer

Many people cannot use a calculator to find the area of a triangle because they don't remember the formula for the area of a triangle, or figure out an angle because they don't remember trig

It's entirely possible that using AI to create software will run into the same problem. It won't be a rising tide lifting all boats, but only the top % of boats

That's still a pretty substantial problem if it is the case

Just use super productivity and stop burning company resources on slop tokens

https://super-productivity.com/