I don’t agree with you. Their product is a fully scalable almost human tier intelligence. I think it’s worth way more than $1 trillion but they have to get their capex in order first so they can provide dirt cheap tokens.

> get their capex in order first

how are they gonna do that when the half-life of a GPU is 18 months?

Their lifespans are 2 to 4 years with heavy usage. Even then the problem isn’t the lifespan. It’s the lack of supply right now. I assume with more built out production capacity GPUs get cheaper too.

Spot prices for 5 year old A100s are still going up recently, because inference is so valuable. This meme that GPUs are a quickly depreciating asset is outdated.

If the company cant convert the product into earnings it really doesnt matter what the product is. It can be a magic machine that turns water into wine. They still have to find people willing to pay for it.

If the world is not ready for fully scalable almost human tier intelligence then, being right at the wrong time is the same as being wrong.

Uptake is amazing, isn't ChatGPT the most downloaded and beat TikTok easily?

Also you don't have to make people pay. Facebook doesn't charge end users for its products and neither does Google for either search or Android.

So it's going to be full of advertising as the only way it will be profitable?

its the most downloaded but they churn users quite a bit

> They still have to find people willing to pay for it.

There’s a shitton of companies willing to pay for it.

> Their product is a fully scalable almost human tier intelligence.

"Almost" being a synonym for "not".

It's already much smarter than most humans in a lot of ways.

It's not the same kind of intelligence as humans so it'll probably always have weird areas where it can't do as well (like counting letters in words), but that doesn't mean it isn't smart. If AI were sentient it could point at humans and say "haha look how dumb they are; 99.999% of them can't even write a basic Lean program".

We're way beyond the point where "it's not as smart as humans" is meaningful.

"fully scalable" except it requires massive capex to build out data centers with limited actual resources to put in those data centers.