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Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by ChuckMcM on Thursday January 10, 2013 @01:11PM (#5038604)
This discussion is awesome! I would never have believed such a simple conjecture could provide so much illumination around the myths and realities of startups.

First, its a great deal, both for hmexx and folks who take him up on it. Frankly I think it could be revolutionary. My reasoning is as follows;

Many "products" over the last couple of years have been fairly straight forward web "apps" built on top of existing infrastructure. They provide some basic customer value, they tend to be fashionable (moderate lifetime), and generally take less than a year to produce.

That is almost exactly the same as the book publisher model.

So hmexx sets himself up as an MVP "publisher" and pays "authors" $5000 up front and a 50% interest in the proceeds going forward. Now lots of new book authors would love that deal because they know how to write books but they have no idea how to promote them into bookstores and Amazon's top lists etc. Unlike books though web apps don't pay out a revenue stream on per-unit sales. Instead they tend to either a pay a chunk via a buyout, or they generate income over time with advertising/partnerships. If we're talking about "apps" for mobile then there is a revenue stream very similar to books.

So I reason its a good deal because the content creator has a much better chance to benefit from their creation than previous generations of artists had.

Now as an illumination, the whole 50/50 thing shines a light right into the core of the startup 'dream' mentality. It is the idea that you will start a company that becomes the next Facebook and you become a billionaire over about 10 years of nights. 50% of zero is zero, 50% of a billion dollar company is $500M worth. The closer reality is that if the idea has 'legs' then you can expect a series A round that will reduce both of you to 33% and then a series B which takes you to 20% to 25%. If you get there you're probably making a decent salary and have some small but non-zero shot of a return.

Every year somebody makes over $50M on one of the big lottery games in the US, its only like once in 5 years that people make over $50M from their startup. The good news is that fewer people have the chops to "buy in" to a startup lottery ticket.

So that is the reality. If you want to make some money, buy a house, raise a family. Go work for Oracle or Apple or Microsoft or Google. Don't do startups for the money, do them because you are passionate about what they are trying to create. If you do them for the money you will become bitter and depressed.

But this offer, to be paid $5000 in exchange for a half interest in the lottery ticket you create? Given the 'two, three month' worth of work estimate. There is not a whole lot to complain about.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by eranation on Thursday January 10, 2013 @03:33PM (#5039561)
I like it but I think the order should be reversed, before building the MVP, I would have built a landing page for each idea (after filtering the good ones), spend some money on marketing first and see if it gets beta sign ups traction (developer commits that if it does, they'll build it), only then pay for building it (I would also offer to sign an NDA with the developer protecting their idea if the deal doesn't execute, and also give them a shared user account to the analytics of the landing page for being 100% transparent)

This way you risk only $3000 (or less) instead of $8000, and the developer will be much more motivated to build it knowing it's already an idea with a real potential market.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by ChuckMcM on Thursday January 10, 2013 @04:31PM (#5039879)
That system has worked in other creative endeavors as well, the whole 'landing page/sign-up' thing is a way to de-risk concept development but that may not be the issue here.

One has to optimize for the 'harder' thing being done. So if the challenge is getting the MVP written, then this order makes sense, the risk on the $3000 is less than the risk on the $5000. If the challenge is getting people to understand it, then doing the landing page first makes sense. From hmexx's point of view $8,000 is at risk either way, except he "knows" he can do the customer acquisition part but doesn't know if someone can do the "MVP" part.

One of the realities this discussion has highlighted is how little young engineers (and some older ones too!) value the whole marketing/customer acquisition thing. But the beauty of it is that when the risk arbitrage is low enough, that doesn't matter. One has to ask is there a 'funding round' that is earlier than a 'seed/angel' round? Maybe an 'idea' round. Two people come together, one proves they can execute on building an MVP and one proves they can execute by acquiring customers, then the pair take the next step (assuming the thing works and customers are found). This really side steps the whole "I've got a great idea if I could just get it off the ground" discussion into "What are you willing to bet?"

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by jacquesm on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:09PM (#5040573)
> This really side steps the whole "I've got a great idea if I could just get it off the ground" discussion into "What are you willing to bet?"

That nails it perfectly. I like the OPs proposition. I like it so much that I'm now wondering what would be a better counter offer, and I've failed to come up with anything so far. This little trick could kickstart a whole new phase in the start-up world.

Unless the OP turns out to be Jason Calacanis ;)

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by dalore on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:27PM (#5040650)
So you've alienated all your early adopter customers by saying you have a product but you don't have anything.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by eranation on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:44PM (#5040702)
Potentially yes, but not likely in my opinion (and in the opinion of people I talk with) and the fact is that most do it, usually they do it when they actually start building it, but we all know that many even big companies, sell first, develop later. Those who develop first and hope they'll find a market, sometimes just end up with a great piece of code with no way to make money out of it.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by alexcovic on Friday January 11, 2013 @06:56AM (#5042313)
sell first develop later is a sound strategy, especially if you are building a product/service for enterprise. Sometimes you can even get a prospect to finance the development process. However, i don't really see how you can do the same thing if building a b2c product - except through a kickstarter campaign.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by j45 on Friday January 11, 2013 @12:30PM (#5043769)
Have you read the lean startup methodology
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by niggler on Thursday January 10, 2013 @04:10PM (#5039758)
On the other hand if someone beats you to the punch after discovering your market research, you wasted time and energy.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by calciphus on Thursday January 10, 2013 @04:31PM (#5039881)
If someone "beats you to the punch" then they would have beat you anyway. If you have an idea that's so simple that it can be easily replicated from a signup / info page, it probably wouldn't last.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by niggler on Thursday January 10, 2013 @04:37PM (#5039925)
First mover advantage. In the time it takes for you to do market research, others may already have a leg-up in starting something which may converge to your idea before you launch. And having that initial traction may completely squelch your launch
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by orionblastar on Thursday January 10, 2013 @06:50PM (#5040505)
Hah hah, yeah that really worked for Lycos and Excite being a web search engine site before Google. It also really worked for Friendster and Myspace being a social network site before Facebook. It really worked great for Qualcom having a PalmOS based smart phone and RIM with the Blackberry smartphone and Microsoft's Windows CE smart phones before Apple's iPhone and Google's Android came out?

First mover advantage, sometimes you show the Johnny-come-latelys all the mistakes they can avoid, and how they can improve upon your product by examining your weaknesses and flaws because you rushed it to market.

If you are a first mover, consider having in your business plan what you do when the 'heavy hitters' decide to copy your product and do it better. They most likely will so plan on it. Do a total quality management on your product and improve on it every chance you get before the copycats do it better.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by scott_s on Thursday January 10, 2013 @06:41PM (#5040463)
I'm skeptical that "first mover advantage" is very important. There are many examples of products and services that were not first, but became the best and won.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by copyhackers on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:48PM (#5040714)
Kevin O'Leary says pioneers get slaughtered and settlers get rich. First to move well on a proven idea - and keep moving on it - may have the advantage. First to act? Not so much.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by chris123 on Friday January 11, 2013 @05:56AM (#5042173)
There are pros and cons to being first mover or second mover and examples of successes and failures of each. I prefer second mover, as someone else has de-risked, educated the market, etc. Now it's just to improve/differentiate, and capture market share (all things that are easier said than done!).
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by SatvikBeri on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:05PM (#5040553)
First mover advantages are actually very rare. They're only relevant for markets with extremely strong network effects and lock-in. Even then, Facebook wasn't the first social network.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by saraid216 on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:37PM (#5040683)
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by eranation on Thursday January 10, 2013 @04:34PM (#5039902)
It's always a problem and a catch 22, you want to get customers, but also avoid competition, but I think the trend today is that stealth mode is not that helpful, there are so many ideas and if you believe what they say in the news, not enough developers to build them, your big enemy is a market with no customers, not a market with competitors. if you launch 3 months after someone in today's world, even if they manage to get a few thousands customers ahead, it doesn't make much difference in my opinion if you build it better, you'll catch up.

As someone said here earlier, idea is just a multiplier of execution.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by orionblastar on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:08PM (#5040569)
You could also find a niche market that has little to no competition and develop to that. I remember when the Desktop Publishing market was new, and the Commodore Amiga had Deluxe Paint and a few third part desktop publishing apps in 1985. Then later in Adobe made Photoshop in 1989 for the Macintosh that copied the ideas of desktop publishing software on the Amiga. Not only that but Newtek had a Video Toaster and Video Editing software for the Amiga, and later on Apple copied it with iMovie and other stuff. But back in 1985 it was a small niche market, and it grew so much that it migrated to the Macintosh and became best selling products that promoted the Mac over the PC.

The Amiga was basically a launch platform that went away for many niche market software. If the companies that developed those for the Amiga had developed them for the Macintosh, they'd still dominate today.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by larrys on Thursday January 10, 2013 @11:51PM (#5041391)
"I remember when the Desktop Publishing market was new"

So do I. Remember Pagemaker vs. Quark Express?

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by wildgift on Friday January 11, 2013 @02:35AM (#5041799)
I thought it was Ventura Publisher vs. Aldus Pagemaker.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by cjmagee on Friday January 11, 2013 @11:50AM (#5043482)
Ready Set Go! vs Aldus Pagemaker
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by j45 on Friday January 11, 2013 @03:46PM (#5044893)
Pagemaker reincarnated/replaced as InDesign.

Anyone remember Calamus? Great DTP.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by brudgers on Thursday January 10, 2013 @03:31PM (#5039549)
The analogy to the book publishing industry has some merit, but it only gets you so far.

If this were a book deal, the author would be assigning copyright to a company in exchange for an advance and a non-controlling share in that company. And that company's business plan is premised upon the dilution of the author's equity.

Once there's dilution, the author remains with the company at the pleasure of a guy he met on the internet and some other investors. They may be swell people, they not. Likewise with the the author.

Yes, the value is probably zero. But in this scenario, the possibility of an upside is not just dependent upon the product's success but also upon their being some lucky alignment between his financial interests and those of the other shareholders - and they are likely to have multiple intermingled financial arrangements.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by 31reasons on Thursday January 10, 2013 @11:00PM (#5041274)
>once in 5 years that people make over $50M from their startup.

May be you are trying to make a point but this statement is clearly NOT true. It all depends on how wide the area are you talking about. Are you talking about California or Kansas or entire US ?

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by jacquesm on Friday January 11, 2013 @03:24AM (#5041899)
Why stop at the US? Doesn't the rest of the world count?
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by 31reasons on Friday January 11, 2013 @01:04PM (#5043992)
Sure it does.I am not even from the US :) But I thought 3 examples would be enough.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by nikcub on Friday January 11, 2013 @02:21AM (#5041761)
The downside of the book publisher model is that the publishing firms and associated agents are perceived as gatekeepers in the industry.

Unpublished authors talk about the one big break they need to be a success, and all that is standing between them and success is convincing a publishing company of their merits. The same applies in film making - it is the small guy currently waiting tables up against 'the man', who is holding them back from being a successful movie star and actor.

We don't have that in the entrepreneurial community, at least not to that extent. Without the perception of gatekeepers entrepreneurs know that the reward correlates to the work you put in.

I like the funding ideas that don't propagate the story that all you need to be a successful entrepreneur is to convince somebody to give you money.

Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by shawn-butler on Thursday January 10, 2013 @07:33PM (#5040670)
RIM was offering US $10,000 for any app that generated $1000 in sales. Still might be available leading up to their relaunch.
Re:Proposition HN: I will pay $8000 for you to build your si... by aaronevans on Monday January 14, 2013 @05:55PM (#5057205)
I think that's an interesting take, even if not meant by hmexx. Startup ideas as publishing. $5000 advance, $3000 guaranteed marketing (of unknown value), and 50% royalties. I'd write a book for that rate. Why not an app?