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Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by scotty79 on Thursday December 13, 2012 @12:59AM (#4914477)
He kind of glosses over the fact that you'd have to probably tax this small number of people who will be very prosperous at 99% level to fund sufficient education for the masses to so they can have a chance of participating in any meaningful work. And by funding education I don't mean paying teachers and buying equipment but also providing for students. What would be the point of funding someone's college if he has to at the same time work two brain numbing jobs to pay for the privilege of not living on the street?

I don't think Eric Schmidt would be so happy realizing that he is right and that's the only sensible course of action but he is the one who has to pay for it all.

Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by iroy on Thursday December 13, 2012 @03:18AM (#4914860)
> What would be the point of funding someone's college?

There is no point. Krugman has some interesting blog posts recently saying economic output has gotten more and more capital based (assuming output is a product of capital and labour). He implies lots and lots of people are not going to have "meaningful" employment let alone employment. No one really knows how to solve this. And I doubt anyone including Eric Schmidt will openly say so. And just because its a politically sensitive thing to say, a pointless amount of money will be spent on education instead of building/reinforcing basic social safety nets.

Countries developed or not, with large populations of poor people are going to have a tough time ahead. Good time to move to Singapore or Scandinavia

Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by eli_gottlieb on Thursday December 13, 2012 @04:37AM (#4915064)
The real issue on the employment front is that we humans imagined job automation backwards from how it's really happening.

We assumed that jobs would be automated from "menial" to "advanced". First would go lots of farm labor, then manual servants, then eventually factory workers, and by the time it reached educated, white-collar middle-class folks, the world would hit post-scarcity and we'd all become artists and writers and scientists.

Instead, it has ended up proceeding: farm labor, a minority of manual servants, some but not all factory workers, and finally most white-collar middle class jobs. The white-collar middle-class jobs were the brain jobs, were always based on the manipulation of data, and therefore turned out more amenable to encoding in software than almost anything else.

So the future is looking more and more like this: a sizable but weakly employed class of menial factory/physical laborers for the physical things too customized to automate, a smaller "middle class" to actually run specialized machinery (machinery whose operation requires knowledge of what it does rather than knowledge of "how to use Windows XP"), a small elite of upper-middle class innovators with hyper-advanced knowledge and hyper-competitive lifestyles (Hacker News, this is your future), and the capitalist class itself.

What replaces the standard-issue job for common people? Nothing. In its place, we have a mass of unemployed people where the old class of mid-skilled blue and white collar workers used to be. Any time a piece of work would require employing massive numbers of manual workers, it becomes amenable to specialized, programmatic automation. Unemployment will become a fact of life as common as we currently consider, say, not owning land.

Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by spindritf on Thursday December 13, 2012 @01:14AM (#4914540)
> to fund sufficient education for the masses to so they can have a chance of participating in any meaningful work

Is there actual evidence that (public spending on) education leads to productivity? Because it doesn't seem that way[1], or at least it doesn't scale beyond some (relatively low) point.

[1] http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/did_nations_tha....

Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by runako on Thursday December 13, 2012 @02:04AM (#4914683)
My goodness that chart is misleading. The x-axis measures number of years of increase in schooling. Put another way, the x-axis will roughly be the inverse of development at the beginning of the period. This is because nations that were highly developed at the start of the period wouldn't have reasonably been able to add an additional 8 years of schooling on average. Nations adding 8 years will overwhelmingly have been starting from low bases.

So the chart essentially says that adding education is more valuable in developed economies. Which is good to demonstrate empirically, but is hardly shocking.

The other major flaw in this study is that the timeframe is short. Again, consider the x-axis. Adding 8 years of schooling on average to even the least developed nation takes the first cohort out to ~15 years of age. By the time that first cohort hits age 47, the study period is over. This is measuring improvement without capturing the a full decade or more of the first cohort (and even less for subsequent cohorts). And obviously the first highly educated cohort wouldn't have had time to mentor a productive generation yet (or completely infiltrate the political infrastructure, etc.). Perhaps there's more useful data in the linked papers, but the data in TFA is unconvincing.

Finally, on the larger point of the correlation between education and productivity/wealth creation, there are ample empirical correlations. Obviously these do not imply causation, but the onus is certainly to show why this is not the case given that the correlation of education and wealth exists in roughly 100% of developed economies. If a country could become developed without spending on education, why has nobody done it?

Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by iroy on Thursday December 13, 2012 @02:43AM (#4914782)
Saudi Arabia.
Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by simonh on Thursday December 13, 2012 @04:05AM (#4914962)
An exception that proves the rule?
Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by PakG1 on Thursday December 13, 2012 @02:23AM (#4914734)
Although that's probably a good counterpoint, it doesn't provide any solutions. I'd say the fear about automation is real. I think we all know that. Especially in enterprise, pretty much the sole purpose of coding is to automate people's jobs. I experienced it firsthand. I was so happy seeing my finished product in use, then kind of sick when I met the people I had automated in new jobs, with them telling me how they loved their new opportunities and how they loved to learn. Except their voices sounded falsely happy, and their new jobs were also targeted for automation. These people were the breadwinners of their families, and I wasn't doing anything to really help them be better off. They lacked good skills to really do something special. Was that their fault? Should they be punished for it? They worked hard, cared for their kids, put in the hours for their dreams.

The subject is a bit personal for me, and I agree that simply education isn't a 100% correct answer, but I'd wager that it must be part of the answer. The worrisome question is what is the whole complete answer?

Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by eli_gottlieb on Thursday December 13, 2012 @04:42AM (#4915070)
The only whole and complete answer is the end of capitalism as we know it. Not, that is, the end of market economies as we know them, but the end of capitalism in the sense of dividing the population into those who own the means of production and a broad mass who must sell labor to survive. Labor is becoming an unsaleable commodity.
Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by PakG1 on Thursday December 13, 2012 @08:42PM (#4919148)
If you want market economies to stay, market economies will figure out whether or not labor is a saleable commodity, no? I don't understand your point?
Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by eli_gottlieb on Friday December 14, 2012 @04:37PM (#4923500)
Unsaleable here was not supposed to mean illegal or literally impossible to sell. I meant it as "very/increasingly difficult to sell at a profit".

Selling labor at a profit is becoming a problem, since it has those irritating built-in costs of food, shelter and health-care.

Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by sxp on Thursday December 13, 2012 @01:37AM (#4914608)
That assumes that people who program the robots will be taught be human teachers which does not scale. If they are instead taught by robot teachers similar to Neal Stephenson's idea of A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer or a more advanced version of Khan Academy, then it will be very cheap to teach students. Kids are very good at teaching themselves if given the chance and the right materials: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/506466/given-tablets-bu...
Re:Eric Schmidt: How We Outrace the Robots by maxerickson on Thursday December 13, 2012 @07:01AM (#4915381)
Most people that have lots and lots of capital have quite some luck to thank for it.

When automation starts destroying the value of that capital, I don't think it really makes sense to say that they are the ones paying for everything.

(To be clear, I do think that automation sufficient to build a factory factory leads to a situation where existing capital isn't worth very much. If anyone with a modest level of technical ability can bootstrap a manufacturing empire, people won't stand for a social arrangement that prioritizes the material wealth of the few.)