The only reason dev jobs paid more (by a factor of two or more) than pure solution modeling was because "writing code" was the hard part.
If you wanted to get paid just modeling the solution and handing it off to a coding team, those jobs were available for decades, typically called Business Analysts but few devs moved from dev to BA.
> Understanding the problem and the existing system well enough to design the right solution, even with AI assistance, is a higher cognitive load.
I've found that the act of physically writing refines my understanding a lot more than simply reading.
We don't typically expect a person to read a trigonometry textbook and then perform well on an exam. They have to drill problems to surface their misunderstandings to themselves.
My fear is that, with developers adopting your approach, they're "designing" systems in much the same way that a read-the-book-only trigonometry student solves trigonometry problems.
That’s the source of my “easy” framing. It has always had the lower cognitive load in my experience. Now that I can offload the mechanical part to AI, I spend more time on the hard parts.
I still read plenty of code along the way, maybe less of it now because it’s easier to surface which parts of the code I need to read.
They're called Business Analysts, sometimes simply Analysts, and that's effectively their job - come up with a spec and give it to the software engineers.
to further that example, many people with the help of AI are ostensibly copy pasting trig problems from the book without understanding the mechanics running through them and labouring under the impressions they’ve become closer to skilled mathematicians
In my view, "programmer" merged with "analyst" to become "software engineer".
That's exactly why I don't have AI writing my code. It is doing the easiest part of the job (making symbols appear in the text), which isn't actually valuable to me. A good tool should help me to do hard things, not easy things.
This is why I don’t understand why folks around here (that are employed) feel so enthusiastic about AI. We are going to be working more in a rush to produce stuff that we won’t be feeling as proud of as we did before AI. Unless you were in the profession for the money, the delights of crafting software simply go away and AI is pushing us closer to be just… well, I don’t know, but I don’t like it. Sure thing, if you are a CEO, this new state of things must be wonderful
"software plumbers"
From my experience, a typical software engineer needs to understand the business (e.g., knowing who your users are), design a solution (e.g., we probably need an event-driven arch right here) and write the code (e.g., we should use select for update skip locked to avoid over claiming). They all are equally challenging imho
Understanding the problem and the existing system well enough to design the right solution, even with AI assistance, is a higher cognitive load. I’m doing a lot more of that lately.
I’m more productive, but also more tired. This may be due in part to the breadth of what my team owns, which makes my day a bit more context-switchy than other teams.
As others in this thread have noted, the situation is still evolving. However, I worry less each day about being replaced by AI. There has always been more work than available bandwidth in my experience.
What seems clear to me is that expectations around velocity and throughput will increase (are increasing). AI use will be required to meet those expectations. Learning to use this new tool effectively will be essential for career progression (and preservation).