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Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by postflopclarity on Thursday May 21, 2026 @10:44AM (#48223567)
this comment was clearly written by AI. please don't do that.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by Retr0id on Thursday May 21, 2026 @11:23AM (#48224321)
Not sure why you were downvoted/flagged, because you're right. It is also quite an insightful comment worthy of discussion so I'm a little conflicted.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by pjc50 on Thursday May 21, 2026 @11:52AM (#48224809)
It looks completely fine and plausible to me. Which is worrying.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by skybrian on Thursday May 21, 2026 @11:38AM (#48224575)
I don’t see why it’s AI, but even if it is, it’s better than most human comments so the complaint should be downvoted.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by Retr0id on Thursday May 21, 2026 @11:40AM (#48224605)
Take a look at the user's history, it's more obvious in context. It has a lot of claude-specific tells which are noticeable if you've spent time working with claude. AI-generated comments are against the HN guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by skybrian on Thursday May 21, 2026 @11:42AM (#48224646)
Maybe the guidelines should be changed? Something about: don’t complain about comments just because they’re AI.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by postflopclarity on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:06PM (#48225024)
I'm not complaining "just" because it's AI.

I'm complaining because it's AI, and also slop.

> resolves into "cross-venue infrastructure" — which is also a more durable edge than within-venue alpha

anybody who actually trades knows that on these markets, "cross venue infrastructure" (aka vibe coding some exchange api integrations) is much less important / durable than actual alpha.

Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by Retr0id on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:29PM (#48225406)
Slop aside, do you think it's reasonable to assume a decent fraction of those making consistent profits are arbitrage bots?
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by postflopclarity on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:54PM (#48225767)
arbitrage is a rather overloaded word that people use for all kinds of strategies but yes, I predict most of the most profitable and consistent accounts are not actually attempting to forecast the outcome of these markets from first principles
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by skybrian on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:33PM (#48225458)
That sounds plausible. Not a trader so I wouldn't know. Saying at least a little about what's actually wrong with it seems more useful than just saying it's slop, which gives me very little info over just a downvote.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by postflopclarity on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:58PM (#48225823)
it's pretty easy to write basic trading api connectivity. the hard part is knowing what trades to send

even if we are very charitable and assume the comment refers only to like high-engineering-effort infra for trying to be super competitive on latency, that's still like the opposite of a durable edge, since everybody is looking at it. there's very little "hidden" knowledge and it's mostly a matter of elbow grease and careful engineering.

Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by AmblingAvocado on Thursday May 21, 2026 @01:58PM (#48226625)
Yes, just like the "don't say HN is becoming reddit" rule. If you think it's AI downvote or flag and move on, reading "this is AI" over and over all over the internet without any substantiation is tiresome.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by thazework on Thursday May 21, 2026 @03:58PM (#48228151)
no fuck that. We should definitely complain about AI written content, and we should ban anyone who wants to keep people ignorant of time wasting bs comments.

As a side note, the AI popularized usage of the word 'clean' to denote proper is physically revolting to me.

Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by nh23423fefe on Thursday May 21, 2026 @11:49AM (#48224748)
phrenology
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by postflopclarity on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:07PM (#48225045)
if you're not able to tell that OP's comment was AI slop, then you probably don't have much insight to contribute to the conversation either.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by vcf on Thursday May 21, 2026 @01:06PM (#48225928)
not AI slop, simply a copy paste if the abstract of the paper. journals in our field limit the allowed number of words, so the style can feel « unnatural » even when human-written
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by Retr0id on Thursday May 21, 2026 @01:25PM (#48226205)
The abstract doesn't mention arbitrage at all
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by b40d-48b2-979e on Thursday May 21, 2026 @01:26PM (#48226214)
Forget to swap accounts?
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by l23k4 on Thursday May 21, 2026 @01:29PM (#48226254)
SamTinnerholm started to consistently use emdash in their comments starting 11 days ago, before that none of their comments used emdash.

LLMs like emdash very much, humans don't use it very much these days.

Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by postflopclarity on Thursday May 21, 2026 @12:08PM (#48225066)
it's only "better than human comments" if you have no idea what profitable trading looks like. it's a very-very thin mildly convincing veneer over what is fundamentally slop.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by SkyPuncher on Thursday May 21, 2026 @01:45PM (#48226466)
Yes, there's an em-dash, but it reads fine to me.
Re:Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence fr... by postflopclarity on Thursday May 21, 2026 @01:48PM (#48226498)
AI slop is often good at "reading fine" but the actual content is incoherent.