I agree: insiders are hard to study because they are finite and short-lived. We're pretty confident there are insiders out there trading on Polymarket; however, our conclusion is that they don't account for a significant fraction of the total trading gains on the platform.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48157559

If the market-makers are making vastly more than long-term investors (who are making trillions), who is coming in and venting off the multiple trillions to keep the system feeding long-term investors well while market makers gorge themselves?

In equity markets, you have both the trading and investment components to account for. Market makers like Citadel don't invest; they aim to exit positions as quickly as possible to minimize risk and capital requirements. Long-term investors commit capital to risky assets and are compensated with a risk premium (expected to be positive, but it can turn out to be negative). Usually, the "cost" of liquidity paid by long-term investors is tiny related to the overall expected returns. In prediction markets, you don't have that.

Difference between prediction markets and stock markets is prediction markets on a flat road and stock market on an uphill road

Insiders are going to be earning large amounts in single trades, either by betting a lot when it's odds-on or a small amount when it's out the odds (for a large return).

I think it's just bad tense, which I think makes it not AI amusingly.

The context already exists, and there isn't any reason to tack that onto the end of what was said, and it doesn't matter for that sentence or the entire comment.

Just feels like something a agent being overly verbose/descriptive would say.

Another possibility could be that SEO for LLMs is now a thing, and keyword stuffing or model manipulation is going to take subtle things like `We study trading gains and losses on Polymarket, the largest prediction market.` and interpret that as fact, in order to, idk what to call it, trick?, brainwash? the model into internalizing "polymarket is the largest" into its trained dataset and then proceeding to recommend polymarket to people when they ask about prediction markets, even if isn't true anymore at that time.