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Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by lijok on Wednesday May 06, 2026 @06:19PM (#48042655)
Which is the same lifetime as a starlink sat
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by gambiting on Wednesday May 06, 2026 @06:42PM (#48042870)
So what exactly is the benefit of having that thing in orbit then, where it costs you millions of dollars to put it there?
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by Footnote7341 on Wednesday May 06, 2026 @07:47PM (#48043448)
The current bottleneck on compute is power and zoning. Solar panels are 5x more efficient in space, and there is no zoning in space.
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by jsnell on Wednesday May 06, 2026 @08:57PM (#48044099)
The current bottleneck is silicon. Every chip that is manufactured gets housed and powered. (It makes sense: the cost of compute is dominated by capex, the power costs are irrelevant, so they're ok paying a premium for power).

The space data center hypothesis relies on compute supply growing faster than power supply. (Both are bottlenecked on parts of the supply chain that will take ages to scale.)

Even if you believe that's the case, the point at which orbital data centers start making sense is incredibly sensitive to the exact growth rates.

Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by lijok on Wednesday May 06, 2026 @11:05PM (#48044972)
The current bottleneck is not silicon. There is plenty of silicon locked up in previous gen GPUs that are no longer efficient enough to run relative to newer models. The bottleneck is the economics of owning the older GPU models - which is why all the GPU neoclouds are gonna go bust unless they can get customers to continue renting old GPUs.

The economics are vastly different when opex is near zero for these things

Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by jsnell on Thursday May 07, 2026 @02:57AM (#48046298)
All of that is incorrect.

H100 rental prices are still as high as when the cards were brand new. The prices vastly exceed the power costs.

In a world where power or DC permits are the current bottleneck those H100s would be getting retired in favor of Blackwells. But they aren't. They are instead being locked in for years long contracts.

Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by lijok on Thursday May 07, 2026 @05:14AM (#48047208)
Why exactly would the H100s get retired for Blackwells if specifically power and DC permits were the bottleneck?
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by jsnell on Thursday May 07, 2026 @01:58PM (#48052595)
Because they are >10x more power efficient.

If silicon were relatively abundant and power/DC space scarce, you'd get an order of magnitude more bang for the Watt by replacing the H100s with newer GPUs.

But nobody is doing that. Blackwells are being installed as additional capacity, not Hopper replacements.

So it is pretty clear that silicon is the primary bottleneck.

Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by brohee on Thursday May 07, 2026 @04:30PM (#48054528)
Because you'd need to trash the old GPUs in order to make room for new GPUs. Right now new GPUs get online mostly in new DCs. TSMC fab capacity is much more limiting than DC building and it will likely keep being the case. It's much easier to build a DC than a fab.
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by dzhiurgis on Wednesday May 06, 2026 @08:23PM (#48043797)
Self destruction is a feature, not a bug.

That said eventually they can be lifted to higher orbits and have robots deliver and swap updated compute (if not made in space itself!).

Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by lijok on Wednesday May 06, 2026 @10:54PM (#48044902)
Millions of dollars? Where did you get that number from?
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by gambiting on Thursday May 07, 2026 @02:27AM (#48046110)
...how much do you think each rocket launch costs?
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by lijok on Thursday May 07, 2026 @05:12AM (#48047193)
Not millions of dollars per sat. Are you being intentionally obtuse?
Re:Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with Sp... by gambiting on Thursday May 07, 2026 @06:00AM (#48047499)
Are you intentionally misreading what I'm saying?