Isn't this also sampling bias?
To refute assertion you need to claim negation of that assertion, which is assertion in itself, as every negation can be rewritten to become affirmation, and vice versa.
> All cats are white.
> All the cats I see are black.
The second statement doesn't actually imply that all cats are black but it does refute that all cats are white. It doesn't make it's own claim about all cats, it just adds an anecdote that doesn't conform to the first statement.
However, the original argument regarding smoking bias is correct of course.
While you can certainly argue that such a counter example entails the negation of the original assertion, that is not the same thing as claiming the negation of the assertion.
Putting forth an argument or demonstrating a counterexample is not the same as asserting all of the logical consequences of that argument.
Exactly! And this is why every time I see someone selling a course while bragging about making a lot of money, I know for sure they are _not_ making money.
Well, yeah, they’ve got a system. Their system is selling hope to schmucks like you. Their seminars, their self-help books, their crazy diets and exercise plans? That stuff doesn’t help you. It helps them.
This text can currently be found in the blurb for a shirt at https://shirt.woot.com/offers/steamworks-operatica .
It's possible that's where I found it originally, but my memory suggests to me that I found it somewhere else, on a blog, and that the continuation was different.
Victor Niederhoffer, The Education of a Speculator
But yeah I'm guessing the guy selling the course makes more off that than his fba business
No indy hedgefund algotrader gives away their golden goose, that would crowed out the trade.
I thought it was supposed to be "passive".
> I suspect this is largely sampling bias.
FTFY.
Speaking of sampling bias, isn't this like asking a shovel vendor about the success rate of gold prospectors? :)
I don't stand to gain anything by exaggerating the results of the meetup attendees. Unless you think I'm trying to recruit people on HN to come to my meetups and meet successful founders?
I suspect this is largely sampling bias.
I host meetups for indie founders, and several attendees earn their living through solo businesses. When I go to conferences like Microconf, I meet lots more.
The problem with measuring financial success by who posts about it on HN is:
* The more someone is making at their solo business, the less they want to blab about it and attract competitors.
* The people earning at the low end are more desperate for people to see what they're doing so they can pick up new customers, so they're more likely to talk about their work.
* The more successful founders are busier and spend less time posting on HN.