For some of us, the world has already changed drastically. I am shipping more code, better code, less buggy code WAY faster than ever before. Big systemic changes for the better to our infra as well. There are days where I easily do 2 weeks worth of my best work ever.

I totally understand that not everyone is having that experience. And yet until people live it, it seems they just discount the experience others are having.

I'll take the 12 month bet.

Cool, and you're doing it on top of the single largest IP hijacking in the history of the world, a massive uptick in infra spend and energy burn to "just throw more compute" at it instead of figuring out how to throw "the right compute at it", cannibalization of the onboarding graduates, and losing having enough friction to keep you from running off after what's probably a bad idea on further analysis, because you can crank this out in a weekend. Last time somewhat did that, we got fucking JS. We still haven't rid ourselves of it.

Let us not lose sight of how we got here.

>I am shipping more code, better code, less buggy code WAY faster than ever before.

It's clearly relative. For all we know you're a crap coder and AI is now your crutch. We have no evidence that with AI you are as good as an average developer with a fair amount of experience. And even if you do have a fair amount of experience, that doesn't mean you're a good coder.

Exactly lol.

The iPod project was done in months, not years. Im convinced most people aren't as good at programming / focusing on the right stuff as they claim.

12 months I won't be surprised if there's not much change. But in 5 years? 10? Anything can happen. It is presumptuous to think you can project the future capabilities of this technology and confidently state that labour markets will never be affected.

You prove my point.

Guys like you dont get it. You think OAI, Amazon etc can freely put large amounts of money into this for 5-10 years? Lmao - delusional. Investors are impatient. Show huge jumps in revenue this year or you no longer have permission to put monumental amounts of money into this anymore.

Short of that they'll just destroy the stock price by selling off; leaving employees who get paid via SBC very unhappy.

> You think OAI, Amazon etc can freely put large amounts of money into this for 5-10 years?

Won't matter. The Chinese models will be running on potatoes by then and be better than ever.

By the time that's obvious investors in the market would've priced that in. Again repeating myself here.

Such are reductive and superficial way of thinking on how investments works. Makes me confident you dont really are able to make a good prediction

Lol okay, show me your portfolio. Ive beaten the market after-adjusting for risk for years on-end.

Whatever you want to say about other companies, Amazon (and Meta) is quite willing to spend many years pouring billions into technology they think will pay off later.

Looking at VR and Meta. They absolutely can be wrong. So even after investing what seems to be enough, there might not be any payoff.

And the investors were correct to crush the stock price down to 90-odd dollars. Which finally forced Zuck to face the music.

This place is full of bozos.

Did Zuck change because the stock price went down or he was dissatisfied with the lack of progress/adoption?

There may be no payoff in the end, but it won't be for lack of resources thrown at the problem or investor impatience.

Whether investors will see returns soon enough to service their debt loads is entirely another matter. I do agree the likely course of action is we get a crash of sorts, since the only way their investments pan out is if labour is replaced entirely which of course sounds unlikely in near term.

My point is the cat is out of the bag. It doesn't take massive investments to achieve iterative improvements on SOTA. As long as the technology does not plateau, smaller labs have shown it's possible to advance the frontiers independent of large companies/investments. And as these frontiers advance, more and more of economical knowledge work will be subsumed by AI. I don't see a way out of this, which is why I am a strong proponent of wealth distribution eg UBI.