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A comment on America is slow-walking into a Polymarket disaster. Parent comment

Re:America is slow-walking into a Polymarket disaster by gizzlon on Monday January 19, 2026 @02:10AM (#46675835)
You are probably right, but I believe it's a failure of prediction whatever the reason is.
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Re:America is slow-walking into a Polymarket disaster by Hammershaft on Tuesday January 20, 2026 @08:17AM (#46691505)
It is, but it's a well known systemic error that has to do with the rate of return from certain accuracy improving predictions falling below the rate of return of anything else.

You can learn a lot more about whether these markets are accurate at this great resource:

https://calibration.city/introduction

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