The out of box experience can be a bit rough around the edges on bleeding edge stuff, but it isn't anything near as bad as it used to be. For example, a month ago nanochat wasn't working well and now it is. The important thing is that people now care enough to make it work.

At the end of the day, AI does need viable options. Having a monopoly on all AI hardware and software might be a good thing for share holders, but isn't a good thing for what is looking like a fundamental technology, akin to the internet.

I like your bet though. The difference between NVDA and AMD has never really existed on a hardware level for decades. AMD has always been on par, and software is software, it will catch up.

AMD will be a stock many people will miss because the opportunity has presented itself at the height of AI bubble talk, and this will leave many in the dust. Doubling and tripling of their market cap is pretty much a forgone conclusion.

George was very smart, $500k in the $90's. I saw it coming even earlier than him, but that's cause I was already aware the hardware was good from my own experiences.

[0] https://www.amd.com/en/products/accelerators/instinct/eval-r...

Nvidia remains undefeated at responding to hardware threats with hardware diving catches to this day. What scenario prevents them from yet another one of their diving catches? I'm genuinely curious as to how one could pull that off. It's like challenging Google in search: even if you deliver better product and some have, the next thing you know Google is doing the same thing or better with deeper pockets.

The fact that they make roughly the same hardware as AMD for the last 2 decades, and even today. There was no diving catch, AMD just ignored what the hardware was capable of and didn't reinforce OpenCL. There was literally no diving catch. For example, just in this thread alone, AMD paid someone to make this shit work on their hardware. Don't bet against what's coming.

Even paying paying someone in academia to get s** to work on their hardware is yet another example of follow the leader.

What exactly do you think is coming? I think the biggest threat is one or more Chinese companies catching up on both hardware and ecosystem in the next half decade or so myself, mostly because of the state level support for making that so. But I absolutely don't expect an x86_64 moment for GPUs here given past results and the current bias against software in AMD's HW culture. Convince me otherwise.

Right now AI support on AMD is officially only on specific models. But they are working hard to turn this around to have broader support. And making progress.

  1. data layouts to avoid local memory bank conflicts
  2. read patterns from global memory to optimize L2 cache reuse
  3. warp specialisation

tinygrad doesn't support 3 yet, it's not needed on any AMD GPUs, and not needed on NVIDIA consumer. It wouldn't be hard to add, but it's important to figure out how it best fits with the existing abstractions. I think everything will eventually move to a more producer-consumer model.

That sounds like they're winning.